Grading Undrafted Free Agency
It's been two days since the NBA Draft, and we've already seen many two-way and Exhibit 10 signings. Let's shine some light on the early winners so far.
With the 2024 NBA Draft now in the books, notable prospects have not heard their name called on draft night. For some, it is a self-made decision, as they want to control their destiny by choosing their team in undrafted free agency.
Due to most second-round picks end up signing two-way contracts, it’s an understandable trend. Success stories like Austin Reaves immediately come to mind.
Early Winners
Miami Heat — Grade: A
The Heat have a good feel for signing specific skillsets to two-way contracts. As one of the better-developing teams in the league, they are not afraid to bring in experienced players while still investing time in their development despite not having them on long-term contracts.
Keshad Johnson
I projected Johnson to be a late second-round pick in my NBA Mock Draft. While being a freak athlete, Johnson is one of the most complete defenders in this class. As a fifth-year senior, his conditioning improved leading to him playing close to thirty minutes for Arizona, while hovering around twenty a game when he played for San Diego State.
The Heat get themselves a good pick-and-roll defender who stands out with his rotations as a team defender. With defensive footwork and his experience as a leader on the court, he fits in the mold of guys who will buy in when it comes to the Miami Heat culture.
I expect Johnson to play in the G League for the majority of the year to improve his three-point shooting off the catch while continuing to work on his passing.
Zyon Pullin
After his four-year career in the Big West playing for UC Riverside, Pullin transferred up to the SEC where he put up more than fifteen points per game at Florida. While shooting close to 45% on more than two three-pointers, it’s feasible the Heat are trying to develop a cheaper contract to fill their guard rotation later on in this season.
He’s an effortless passer and playmaker who put up close to five assists per game. His great decision-making translates to an assist-to-turnover ratio of almost four. All exceptional numbers while playing near 20% usage.
On the defensive end, his great feel for the game leads to him rotating well while showing flashes of NBA-ready point-of-attack defense. At over 200 pounds, he has the upper-body strength to match the intensity against most NBA guards. His task is to show his production in the G League whereafter we’ll likely see him serve as the Heat’s floor general off the bench later on in the season.
Denver Nuggets — Grade: A-
The Nuggets got their prize in DaRon Holmes II while adding quality additions in undrafted free agency. After trading Reggie Jackson and seeing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope decline his player option, it left a glaring hole in their guard rotation. Naturally, they want to compete for a title while Denver’s cap situation forces them to find future rotational value with their two-way signings. And it looks like they did.
Trey Alexander
Alexander was an early second-rounder on my latest draft board. While playing on a stacked Creighton squad, Alexander had to carry the scoring load more than he did as a sophomore, which benefitted his game. The lack of strength was telling at times. That makes it his primary area of development.
His plus value as a playmaker will lead to him maintaining a team’s offensive rating as the production as an upperclassman is feasible in both sample size and outcome—an All-Big East selection.
On defense, the combination of solid rotations and good pick-and-roll defense in general makes him a solid option to play as both a one and a two. His screen navigation does need some cleaning up. However, Alexander learning to utilize his length to make winning plays is the value that he brings to Denver.
PJ Hall
A back-to-back Clemson signing for Denver, after drafting Hunter Tyson last year. PJ Hall was the number one option for Clemson, leading to his decline in three-point shooting: 31.5% compared to 39.8% last year. His toughness as an interior defender while having good athleticism makes Hall an intriguing four for the NBA.
The Nuggets love to use multiple screeners in their offensive schemes. Therefore, Hall’s good and active screening leads to advantages in both popping to the perimeter to shoot or using his strength to play through contact in his finishes near the basket.
On the defensive end, his decision-making as a pick-and-roll defender is decent. However, he must work on his overall perimeter defense, where he’s slow-footed at times, hurting his chances to respond to teams wanting to switch to him. As someone who can produce while having good team defense and screening to offer, Denver would likely want to use him later on in the season.
Philadelphia 76ers — Grade: B+
With many players hitting free agency, the Sixers can bank on their success story of last year in Ricky Council IV. However, they would want to make it a back-to-back success in that regard. This year’s route is yet again betting on offensive production developing to an all-round role.
Justin Edwards
As a consensus top-five pick, Edwards has had a rough year at Kentucky. He was struggling with his self-confidence, hurting his game throughout the season. Hereafter he picked it up well in the second half of conference play, showing an NBA role as a wing-defending shooter.
There are value risers in his profile, being his cutting, NBA-ready jumper, and creativity with the ball in his hands. A franchise can scale his role up when he’s ready, giving them enough untapped potential for the long run.
However, his screen navigation and closing out on defense are major areas of development. Edwards’ scaling up will take time and will likely lead to hurting the Sixers’ defensive rating with him on the floor. And that’s okay. Philadelphia gets a long-term bet they can give another full season of development before making a decision.
If Edwards gets his confidence back after a productive G League season, I do not doubt in my mind that the Sixers will give him a standard contract with guaranteed money. Knowing how high their scout Adam Spinella was during his Box And One days, I am sure he has had a large portion in their decision-making to sign him so quickly after draft night had finalized.
David Jones
After scoring more than twenty points per game, Jones earned All-AAC honors despite Memphis having an underwhelming season. With Jones, the offensive talent has never been the issue. He’s a born scorer with good handles and offensive creativity. His three-point shooting from NBA range is his primary weapon on top of his soft touch at the rim while showing the craft to generate his looks in the painted area.
On the defensive end, Jones has shown a lack of effort more often than not. That is unfortunate, as it is likely a big reason why he didn’t get his name called on draft night. For the Sixers, the bet to make here is to evolve Jones’ total package as a defender via the Delaware Blue Coats, which competes for the G League title a few years in a row now, while winning it all in 2023.
Jones is a good athlete but struggles with his screen navigation, making him a target for teams in the pick-and-roll. That’s the area that can change his role for the better as the average NBA backcourt gets bigger and bigger, his size at 6’3.50” in socks and his 210 pounds give him the strength and size to match physical contact against most opponents he’ll face.
As a team defender, his processing doesn’t look good at times. That’s fixable. In a fast-paced G League game, I expect Jones to fill the stat sheet, which is less important as his defensive performance is the most crucial area that will decide if he will have an NBA future or not.