Justin Edwards Scouting Report

An underwhelming season doesn't have to lead to Edwards missing out on an NBA career. Let's dive deeper into the consensus top five's NBA potential and role.

As a top-five recruit, Edwards was expected to be one of Kentucky’s key players this season. After a rough start, Edwards grew into a reliable piece in Coach Calipari’s farewell season. At almost nine points per game on 48.6% shooting, Edwards has shown to serve as a rotational player complementing the guys around him.

When looking at prior years, going to a program like Kentucky means sacrificing a part of a player’s game for the greater good. This scouting report will solely focus on Edwards’ projected NBA role and how this season helped him showcase his talent to NBA decision-makers.

Physical Profile

At 6’6” without shoes, Edwards measured well at the NBA Draft Combine. He has great upper-body strength, and combined with his 6’10” wingspan, Edwards prepared himself to play as a three and four at the NBA level. While bulking up from 190 pounds before his freshman year to 209 pounds, most of his extra pounds led to improving his upper body.

With decent footwork on the defensive end, Edwards’ game is built on physicality more than his quickness. He has a decent first step, but looks heavy-footed during accelerations, leading to him struggling against quicker players. Therefore, NBA franchises will focus on utilizing his frame in determining his role.

While Edwards is very good at absorbing contact, his decent verticality helps him to switch against bigger and stronger players. With a quicker second jump, it’s another value-riser for Edwards to play as a forward in the NBA.

Defense

Despite decent footwork in setting his pivot foot on closeouts, Edwards looks too passive while defending these plays. He’s vulnerable to getting blown by with a combination of non-fluid hips and the lack of good burst to counter drives.

Therefore, Edwards has been shown to need help from the defense to rotate to get stops inside the arc, as shown in the first and second plays below. In the third play, Edwards serves as the five but shows great awareness to rotate and close out just before the kick-out pass. He follows it up with a good last step, keeping his balance while putting his pivot foot out.

Hereafter the area of development gets visible, as Edwards has to guard the interior, but follows the ball handler’s movement between the elbow and mid-post area. With help defense there, staying attached to guarding the interior was the play that would have helped him to respond quicker to the spin move before the dunk attempt.

Positioning was consistently an area opponents focused on with Edwards on the floor. In the last play below, Edwards shows his struggles in closeouts continue by not covering the driving lane, but closing out toward the elbows instead, helping the ball handler to find a clear path to the basket. NBA decision-makers need to make positioning the biggest priority in Edwards’ developmental plan for his first couple of NBA seasons.

Edwards continues to show a good feel for the game when it comes to his rotations, and also when he’s closing out on shooters. In the first play below, he does well to rotate to the corner right after the ball handler drives into the strong side before changing sides.

Despite contesting the shot timely, another area of development becomes clear. He’s following the play while he’s out of bounds, while he can relocate to position himself for the rebound in case the miss bounces his way or to get across the court to punish the three with a transition bucket at the other side. In a faster NBA game, his positioning after misses is crucial to maintaining a team’s pace.

However, at times Edwards rotates too quickly, as shown in the second play below. With two defenders around the rim, his help wasn’t needed with two shooters wide open. With rotating to the low-post area, Edwards was unable to close out timely, leading to a wide-open three by his opponents. We see the same happen in the third play below, Edwards shows good awareness to rotate and toughen the passing lane to the ball handler. After the big man got one-on-one in the low post, stepping out of the paint to be ready to close out on the kick-out pass was the way to position himself on this play.

One of the reasons for the above-mentioned struggles is that Edwards is ball-watching more often than not. The last play below is another example of how it gets in his way in terms of being late on closeouts. Edwards is out of position to both get into defensive box-out as his assignment is closer to the rim than he is. On top of that, Edwards' positioning leads to him not being able to do anything to contribute to the possession, leading to a late rotation on the kick-out pass.

Edwards’ instincts compared to his ball-watching habit make it tough for him to impact an NBA team’s defense right away. That’s something an NBA decision-maker needs to take into account when evaluating his profile.

When defending against cutters, the lack of decision-making makes Edwards too reactionary to how opponents execute their plays. In the first possession, Edwards decides to switch to the relocating shooter after the baseline out-of-bounds play, leading to his assignment cutting to the rim for the easy two.

He follows it up in the second play with hesitation in either sticking with the perimeter shooter or rotating to the cutter in the middle. Trusting his teammates to cover the interior was the right decision. Edwards does well in showing his awareness in his help defense but needs to show more confidence in his decision-making. Watching him play throughout the season it looked as if Edwards was afraid to make mistakes, where he was more confident early on in the year.

In the third play below against a non-conference opponent, Edwards gambles on deflecting the side pass, giving up a potential two points after the wide-open interior. A mistake he could learn from despite the excellent recovery. The difference to the latter parts of the year was that Edwards looked more confident in his decision-making regardless of the outcome. When evaluating his profile, that’s something NBA decision-makers have to consider.

In a switch-heavy NBA game, being able to operate as a pick-and-roll defender is one of the key elements in Edwards’ defensive profile. What stood out is that Edwards fights through the incoming screen at all times. Opposing scouting reports figured that out, leading to Tennessee attacking the weakside driving lane after a hesitation move.

What makes it feasible for Edwards’ improvement as a pick-and-roll defender is when he’s away from the ball screen, his footwork and ability to stick to his ball handler leads to winning plays. In the second play, Edwards isn’t phased by the ICE, leading to him using his body to force the ball handler to initiate contact before stripping away the ball.

The third and fourth plays below are crucial to see where things go south in his screen navigation. Edwards sets his pivot foot hard before the ball screen arrives. This helps the screener in where he needs to stand to help the ball handler get separation. The third play below shows an example. In the fourth play, Edwards sets his pivot foot when the ball screen is set, helping him to slide his feet better to respond to the ball handler rejecting the screen, whereafter his strength bothers the ball handler enough to not cash in on the lay-up near the rim.

Offense

While shooting 36.5% on 85 three-point attempts this season, Edwards is a comfortable shooter off the catch. At 38.7% on NBA-ranged threes, that’s a good number to show NBA decision-makers that he can contribute as a shooter early on in his career.

Edwards sets his feet quickly following it up with a quick high-arcing release. At a 6’10” wingspan, that’s an advantage for him, especially when he’s switched onto shorter guards and wings. When looking at his mechanics, Edwards lowers the ball to below his waist to power up before the release, despite being strong enough to shoot while keeping the ball above his waist.

An NBA decision-maker could think to adjust his shooting release to benefit from his strength. As Edwards will be a quicker shooter off the catch if he never lowers the ball to under his waist, that’s an area to separate himself from most of his peers. With NBA teams already knowing who the majority of the usage will get, earning more on-ball reps starts with Edwards showing he can convert open threes with confidence, as shown in the third and fourth plays below.

One of the biggest strengths in Edwards’ profile is his ability to make plays out of closeouts. His combination of good handles and strength leads to him getting to his spots with ease. In the first play below, Edwards shows his ability to handle with both hands with the spin move while leveraging his strength to get to a midrange jumper from the low-post area.

In the second play, we see a similar spin move before the midrange jumper. The difference with the first play is that Edwards reacted well to his opponent not biting on the pump fake, showing his craft as a self-creating scorer. That’s a value-riser of his profile as he has shown the same flashes as a self-creating scorer like he did in his high school career.

NBA teams value low-usage pieces who thrive on making plays out of closeouts as a sign of giving them more on-ball reps in the future. As a 45.5%-midrange scorer, Edwards shows enough flashes of offensive creativity while making plays with the ball in his hands. In terms of the scalability of his role, that’s a good sign moving forward.

At 0.9 assists per game, Kentucky didn’t utilize Edwards’ ability to create for others often. With a more ball-movement-based NBA game, serving as a ball-mover is crucial for Edwards’ NBA role. What stood out is that Edwards thrives the most on his playmaking for others in the open court. For teams who want to play at a high pace, that’s an advantage of Edwards’ profile.

He keeps his composure at all times. In the first play below, Edwards attacks the Tennessee basket in transition whereafter he picks up his dribble and picks the wide-open elbow shooter with a well-thought pass. In transition plays without the ball in his hands, Edwards shows his connective passing in the third play below with an overhead skip-pass after getting the entry pass near the mid-post area.

What makes his passing feasible for the future is Edwards’ quick decision-making. After attacking the rim in the second play below, Edwards sees the help defense collapse on him whereafter he doesn’t hesitate to quickly hit the elbow shooter. Another positive is in the fourth play, where Edwards saves the ball whereafter he attacks the rim via the baseline, ensuring that the elbow shooter finds a wide-open three after his kick-out pass. Details such as these show why Edwards was highly-touted out of high school as a top recruit.

Edwards likely starts his NBA career with very few ball touches, making his off-ball game more crucial for his role. When it comes to utilizing off-ball screens, Edwards shows quick decision-making in executing the plays without much hesitation. Compared to the lack of self-confidence at times when he’s on defense, Edwards looks more secure in his abilities when he’s looking to produce on offense.

In the three plays below, Edwards utilizes off-ball screens to get to his shots. In the first play, Edwards relocates to where the pass needs to end up whereafter he quickly launches the three. Despite the open driving lane, Edwards values the open three-point shot more, which was the right decision on his part. In the second play, Edwards relocates to the elbow, whereafter he quickly sets his feet to launch the three, again utilizing the off-ball screen very well.

With the baseline out-of-bounds play being the last play of the three, Edwards shows he knows where he needs to cut to get open. One of the things that helped him to fight back after a bad start to the year is his feel for the game as a cutter. Kentucky scaled his role down and Edwards thrived on playing with fewer ball touches, preparing him for his role in the NBA.

When it comes to cutting without utilizing screens, Edwards stands out even more. He’s an active and smart cutter who is keen on making himself the forgotten man on offense while hiding in the corner. For a majority of the season, teams were keen on allowing him to shoot compared to his other Kentucky teammates, which Edwards used to his advantage.

His coaching staff helped him how he could maximize his cutting game to benefit his scoring near the post, leveraging his strength. In the first play, Edwards is nonchalantly floating around the corner, whereafter the dribble-drive opens the lane for the backdoor cut. We see a similar set in the second play below, where Kentucky runs a high pick-and-roll set in a five-out setting. In the NBA he’ll be featured in more of such plays, opening the room for him to excel on easy backdoor finishes.

In the third play, it’s more clear how effective Edwards’ cutting is. First, he relocates to the 270-360 degrees area of his assignment whereafter he cuts hard to the rim upon the ball handler getting one foot in the paint.

NBA Draft Projection

Edwards went from a consensus top-five pick before the season to not being featured at all. Kentucky downscaled his role, and as the year progressed, Edwards was more comfortable playing with fewer ball touches.

Something to consider is that he’s a year old for his class and his dominance at the high school level was something that likely wouldn’t have continued while playing for a program where prospects usually sacrifice a part of their game to fit in.

Edwards was struggling with his self-confidence, hurting his game throughout the season. Hereafter he picked it up well in the second half of conference play, showing an NBA role as a wing-defending shooter.

There are value risers in his profile, being his cutting, NBA-ready jumper, and creativity with the ball in his hands. A franchise can scale his role up when he’s ready, giving them enough untapped potential for the long run.

However, his screen navigation and closing out on defense are major areas of development. Edwards’ scaling up will take time and will likely lead to a team hurting its defensive rating with him on the floor. Those are value droppers.

Considering the above-mentioned areas, it’s likely that Edwards will fall on draft night to end up as a late second-round pick. Given his preseason status, it’s likely that he’ll sign a guaranteed deal with other consensus top-ten commits, such as Jaden Hardy and Brandon Boston Jr. had in earlier years.