Keshad Johnson Scouting Report
Defensive versatility in a frontcourt is crucial to keeping up in a continuously changing NBA landscape. But what else makes the fifth-year senior's game NBA-ready? Find out more below.
After a successful four-year career at San Diego State, Johnson cemented himself into the list of greatest Aztecs in history. After making it to the National Championship game in his last year, Johnson transferred to a senior-studded Arizona team to have a final run at the title before going pro.
While finishing his college career at 11.5 points per game on 53% shooting, Johnson continued to show his role as a connecting forward at Arizona. A crucial area that NBA decision-makers wanted to see him improve was his shot-making from downtown; despite taking over twice as many attempts, the fifth-year senior converted 38.7% of his attempts. For reference, he shot under 30% in three of his previous four seasons.
The shooting is not the only thing that matters. This scouting report will focus on Johnson's total NBA role.
Physical Profile
At 6’6.25” in socks, Johnson is built like a bruizer-typed forward at 224 pounds. He has broad shoulders and an incredibly well-filled frame. His upper-body strength made him a mismatch in the post, especially against non-forwards and big men.
While he’s undersized to play as a full-time four, Johnson’s floor spacing and verticality compensate for the lack of size. He has great length, with a wingspan measured at 6’10.25”. In terms of playing in multiple positions, his 42-inch vertical jump makes him physically able to play as a smaller five in shooting-heavy line-ups.
While the term “small-ball five” is being thrown out there too loosely with undersized forwards, Johnson’s physical appeal and athletic testing prove that he can be plugged into multiple positions, depending on how a team’s offensive scheme looks like.
An area where NBA decision-makers have to take notice is his non-fluid hips. He’s heavy-footed with a below-average first step. However, he accelerates well, making it more feasible that he can guard in space. At Arizona, Johnson invested heavily in his conditioning, leading to him playing close to 28 minutes per game, a 30% jump from his average in his last two seasons at San Diego State.
Defense
On an NBA floor, Johnson’s off-ball defense against cutters is the most crucial part of his game. He has to show he can compensate for the lack of foot speed with his decision-making to maintain a team’s defensive rating.
An important nuance is that conference opponents, especially in the latter stages of the season, deferred to more motion-based offenses to take advantage of Arizona’s slow-footed frontcourt. With their big man being under the rim most of the time, this allowed Johnson to play closer to the perimeter.
In terms of his rotations, Johnson’s experience is visible as he does well to rotate on the first play below. However, his strength doesn’t favor him in matchups in the post, where he gets fouls called against him much quicker, whereas in the NBA, more contact is allowed. Despite being in control at 2.1 personal fouls per game, that’s an important context to add.
The heavy feet become more visible in the second play, where Johnson steps out of the paint with his pivot foot, making the acceleration to stay in front of the cutter much more complicated. We see a similar situation occur in the fourth play below, where Johnson meets the full-speed cutter around the mid-post, being too late in his contest at the rim.
An NBA decision-maker will hold plays like these against him, as Johnson can match the intensity in terms of quickness against big men, as shown in the third play while struggling against opponents playing other positions.
His heavy feet also make it tougher for Johnson to guard against close-out attackers. While he’s focusing on gaining advantages by forcing ball handlers for the contact, he shows he’s vulnerable to fakes and jab steps as his non-fluid hips lead to him losing the mobility battle more often than not.
However, an underrated part of his struggles is in his defensive footwork. In the first play below, Johnson puts his pivot foot too far out, making it an uphill battle to match the intensity in terms of speed against the average guard or wing. Instead of closing out with more composure, keeping his pivot foot closer to his other foot to be able to slide his feet quicker, Johnson continues to make it easy for his opponents to beat him off the dribble.
The second play below is an example of how much more comfortable he looks when he’s keeping his feet closer to each other. Nevertheless, the struggles continue as he shows he’s vulnerable to fakes. Despite his heavy feet, the quickness of his second jump was impressive. Flashes as these should make an NBA decision-maker wonder how Johnson would look if he went through an NBA strength and conditioning program, focusing on his upper-leg strength and improving his footwork.
Despite his struggles, Johnson's second jump, verticality, and excellent ability to absorb contact, an NBA decision-maker will be willing to see what they can change to make his heavy feet more NBA-compatible. With Johnson turning 23 around draft night, he’s still young for a fifth-year senior, making it more likely an NBA franchise would be willing to invest time in his development.
Johnson’s positional versatility comes in his pick-and-roll defense. In a switch-heavy NBA game that focuses on playing at a higher pace, Johnson shows that his case to be on an NBA floor becomes much more appealing. What stood out is that despite his heavy feet, Johnson is a very good screen navigator.
Arizona pushes for the ICE in the first play below, where Johnson uses his technique of slightly bending forward to maintain a cushion when he’s sliding between the screener and ball handler. In that way, he’s compensating for the lack of lateral quickness, where he’s using his strength advantage to force ball handlers to beat him in the physical matchup. An important detail NBA decision-makers focus on is how he looks after the miss. In Johnson’s case, he’s pushing the tempo while sprinting in transition.
He does that in the first two plays, where his San Diego State days come to mind, where he operated as a play-finisher inside the arc in a complementary role. This helped him build up great habits, which effectively helped him to become one of the best pick-and-roll defenders among forwards in college.
As mentioned earlier, an NBA decision-maker must consider to lessen the physical strength to win some speed via an NBA strength and conditioning program. The third play shows why, as he does everything well, from detecting the screen to fighting through it. But against jab steps or hesitation moves while Johnson is in motion, that’s making it much tougher for him to keep opponents in front of him. And that’s okay, as the physical tools and decision-making are the two main factors of potential growth in this aspect. Because if he does become better, showing more foot speed, his pick-and-roll defense will be able to keep him on an NBA floor defensively.
In the fourth play, Johnson gets stuck in the screen. And that’s where the most crucial part of evaluating pick-and-roll defense comes into play: tagging. Johnson tags the screener, helping him to be more physical to get past the screen without fouling. Because if Johnson doesn’t tag and fully engages contact, he’ll be called for a personal foul. Despite opponents figuring out the areas to exploit in Arizona’s defense, the details show that it only helped Johnson’s NBA appeal, as the intangibles in his profile keep impressing.
When it comes to defending spot-up shooters, Johnson’s role becomes much easier to him. With his excellent verticality and long wingspan, he uses long strides in his closeouts against shooters. His lack of foot speed is being compensated by his good feel for the game when it comes to rotations. On a better-spaced NBA floor, that’s much more feasible.
In the first play, Johnson’s quick to react to the relocating shooter, despite having his eyes on the ball handler. A less-experienced player would likely be caught ball-watching with the big man at the elbow being ready to put the stagger screen. His awareness makes it easier for Johnson to defend against shooting from quicker guards and wings on the perimeter.
Another crucial aspect in effective closeouts against spot-up shooters is not to overhelp on defense to have to follow it up by covering more distance to the shooter. Johnson’s experience and length come in handy. His wingspan helps him to afford to stay further away from where he helps defense needs to be. This is visible in the second play below. However, an area of development here is that his reactionary speed on the closeout should have been a tad quicker, especially considering that he has to cover more ground on a better-spaced NBA floor.
In the third play, we see Johnson continue to be comfortable, even when he’s playing as the weakside defender while being trusted to cover more space. When closely looking at his positioning, he does well in keeping his pivot foot exactly between the paint and the perimeter, where he can afford to put one or two steps between the ball handler as help defense, and still be back to close out on the shooter on time.
In the last play below, we see some flashes of Johnson’s hips that could be developed in the next few years. When he’s in motion, he shows he moves more quickly than having to operate from a standstill. An area NBA decision-makers will see improvement when he’s going through an NBA strength and conditioning program.
Offense
While shooting 38.7% on 93 three-point attempts this season, Johnson took more attempts than his first three years at San Diego State combined. With a limited sample size, the value of the fluidity of his jumper, combined with the mechanics, becomes what NBA decision-makers will focus on in his evaluation.
In the first play below, Johnson loses half a second due to him placing his pivot foot too far out before the catch. Therefore, he had to correct his stance before entering his shooting motion. His mechanics however are solid. His strength is an advantage as he keeps the ball at the level of his chest while bending his knees, helping him to power up in a quicker motion. His release is high enough to shoot over most defenders he’ll face due to his good length.
While making roughly half of his tries from above the break, Johnson has his preferences. In the second play below, he’s shooting from the right corner where he’s converting close to 45%. On such a small sample size, the numbers may give the wrong message. This is due to Johnson showing the same shooting motion and release on each try. He may have been a low-volume shooter throughout his career, but that can easily be scaled up in the NBA.
Another factor supporting this claim is that he’s showing improving footwork. In the third play, the quick relocating to the corner led to his pivot foot being planted to where he needed to be, leading to a quicker shooting release. The same applies to the last play, when Johnson is in motion, he’s more comfortable in setting his feet compared to from a standstill. That opens up to grow as a movement shooter in the future as well.
At 67.9%, Johnson is an above-average rim-finisher. With that being his primary source of production throughout his career, this aspect of his game will likely translate to the NBA. In his role as a low-usage forward, his role is to screen and relocate hard to create space for himself or others.
His 53 dunk attempts on the year are a result of his strength advantage in the interior and his great vertical jump. Due to Arizona being such an effective three-point shooting team, it’s opening room for Johnson near the rim to find himself open looks as a cutter. Scheme-wise, Arizona played with many shooters on the floor, where opponents were keen on leaving Johnson open in the corner.
Habitually, he’s not keen on having a three-point heavy-shooting diet. Therefore, via cuts he created many better opportunities for himself. Whether it’s a simple cut from the weak side as in the first play below, or utilizing ball-watching interior defenders in the second, Johnson will actively cut. His consistent motor is something that stands out. Especially since he’s worked hard on his conditioning upon arriving in Arizona, resulting in playing more minutes, as mentioned earlier in the report.
His excellent rim-finishing doesn’t only contain easy looks. In the last two plays, the defense puts multiple bodies on him in the post, whereafter Johnson’s excellent composure comes into play, making his efficiency a more sustainable number at the next level.
At 3.0 free-throw attempts per game, Johnson improved his touch at the line; converting 71% of his tries. Due to his interior-heavy scoring game, being able to draw fouls is crucial to contribute to maintaining a team’s offensive rating.
One of the ways he’ll find open looks at the rim outside his cutting is to play as the roll man via pick-and-roll schemes. Johnson is a good screener with the upper-body strength to set hard screens against players from multiple positions. Due to the league’s trend to experiment more with inverted pick-and-rolls, an NBA team that’s drafting him will add importance to his physical tools.
Johnson’s screens won’t just force the defense to make a decision but create separation for either himself to cut hard to the rim, or for the ball handler. One of Johnson’s advantages is that he doesn’t shy away from finishing hard at the rim. After his screen got rejected in the first play below, he cuts at the right moment to try and posterize the big man down low. Despite getting blocked, his aggressiveness and toughness are what an NBA decision-maker will look for.
The most common way for Johnson to create separation via his ball screens is to utilize handoffs, as shown in the second and third plays below. That’s where the decision-making and feel for the game come into place. The details are in his ability to use the opponent bumping in on him to help his ball handler get separation to feed Johnson’s cutting. In both plays, he’s not pushing the player, but bumping them slightly away with his arm that’s facing the exterior.
An area of development for Johnson is not being too close to the rim at the beginning of an offensive play. This way, it took two seconds longer to set half of a ball screen to sprint back for the uncoordinated roll. Johnson gets lucky when he finds the open driving lane, almost getting an and-one. It’s no red flag, but a team will want to neutralize its offensive rating at worst. In a harsh NBA game, low-usage role players cannot afford to make mistakes like these.
The biggest area of development for Johnson’s offense is his ability to make plays out of closeouts. That’s limiting the value of his draft profile, as most of Johnson’s self-created looks are forced, where defenses are dialed in on how to stop the incoming strength disadvantage.
In PAC-12 play, opponents knew that they had to bring Johnson out of balance, instead of defending him hard at the rim, thus risking fouling him and sending him to the stripe. If Johnson had better offensive creativity, his free-throw numbers would be much higher, as most fouls he drew were based on the strength advantage with which he overwhelmed opponents.
Johnson has loose handles and doesn’t show much else than straight-line drives. On an NBA floor, that’s a risk making teams predictable, and making it tougher for other shot-creators as defenses will be keen on ignoring Johnson at potential kickout passes, and focus on the four other players on the court.
In the first play below, Johnson powers himself to the rim, whereafter he catches the opponent in the air after the fake. However, instead of bumping into him to get a potential and-one, Johnson lets that opportunity slip by to attempt a tough high finish, whereafter he still got the foul call.
Another area of development is Johnson not making the extra pass to keep the offense flowing. He’s forced to pick up his dribble at the midrange, and the right play was to exploit the incoming help defense from the weak side to make a bounce pass to the corner shooter. Who on his part could keep the ball moving to find the wide-open shooter above the break, or take the open three himself. Instead, Johnson forced the midrange jumper, whereafter Arizona had to attack the glass for offensive boards, making them vulnerable to transition offense.
As mentioned earlier in the report, Johnson’s footwork needs work as he tends to place his pivot foot too far out. This was the case in the third possession below. Hereafter, finding balance for the pull-up became tougher, leading to Johnson having to push the shot, and losing accuracy.
To NBA standards, the PAC-12 style of physical defense inside the arc is a good measurement of what Johnson awaits in the NBA. Him yet again forcing the offense after powering himself to the rim will lead to him struggling to be effective out of closeouts on an NBA floor. An NBA decision-maker must make this an important part of their evaluation of Johnson’s NBA profile.
NBA Draft Projection
Johnson is a young fifth-year senior, as he’ll turn 23 around draft night. This makes it more appealing to NBA franchises to invest time into his development. His bulky build and heavy feet make it tough for Johnson to be an NBA-ready defender immediately. However, his quick second jump and great verticality could potentially turn him into an above-average defender generally.
What makes it more feasible that Johnson will return value after the investment is his excellent pick-and-roll defense; an area where he’s one of the top players in college basketball. That combined with showing flashes or improving his hips and raising the mobility value, an NBA strength and conditioning program will benefit Johnson in the long run. He has had a head start at Arizona where he has been focusing on his conditioning, whereafter he saw his minutes per game spike by about 30%.
On the offensive end, he took more threes as a fifth-year senior, than in his first three years at San Diego State combined. Weirdly, Johnson is much better with his footwork via motion than from a standstill. He has to set his feet quicker to match the higher pace of the NBA game, as three-point shooting is what he has to show to maintain a team’s offensive rating.
His biggest area of development on offense is not to force his shots. Despite his showing a scalable game, not playing within the flow of the offense and sticking to his boundaries will hurt his future chances to increase his NBA minutes.
Based on the pros and cons mentioned in the report and the summary above, I project Keshad Johnson to be an undrafted free agent. Hereafter, it’s likely a team will sign him to a two-way contract, where he can work on his offensive game in the G League while following his strength and conditioning program under the wings of an NBA franchise. Another important detail supporting this claim is that playoff teams looking for depth are the best fit for Johnson and by going undrafted, his agency will have more leverage to find the best team fit for him.
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