Mailbag Q&A
Here it is! My first mailbag is where I answer the questions that arose from the NBA Draft subreddit. As I always do, I try to go into detail as much as I can. Enjoy!
A special thank you to the people of the NBA Draft subreddit, specifically CourtVizion, nojeanshere, The-Baked-Bean, and JarrettCulver for sending in excellent questions which I have the honor to answer today.
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Thanks to some alert people, I learned about plagiarism online and in YouTube videos. Unfortunately, that’s the nature of the business, which should be an acknowledgment I am ascending in this space. However, it’s still a bummer to me seeing others trying to bank on the hard work I put in. Therefore, I am forced to put a paywall behind the content, something I am delaying as much as I can.
For the time being, I am giving a discount of 25% for life, which makes it $3.75 a month for in-depth scouting reports and other various types of content I am working on. My track record so far is having over 300K+ words written on more than 80 scouting reports for the 2024 NBA Draft. I am going to exceed that for this year’s class!
Questions
nojeanshere: “What guys from last year that were projected as potential OADs and ended up coming back to College will end up the highest? Guys like J. Stevenson, Bradshaw, Wagner, Cadeau, and Booker”
I like that you mention Jarin Stevenson. He’s a possible first-rounder. Another one is Amani Hansberry, who transferred from Illinois to West Virginia. See the next question for all the details.
I had Miro Little as a possible lottery pick. He didn’t play much at Baylor. After he transferred to Utah, the opportunity to play will be there. He’s a name to keep an eye on, despite some rich depth among guards in this class.
Mackenzie Mgbako was in a tough situation. Duke announced that Mark Mitchell came back, so Mgbako switched to Indiana where the team fit was just weird. Now with Kel’el Ware going to the NBA, Mgbako will have another year to stick to his role, and perhaps play the four as well, despite Oumar Ballo coming in as well, on top of having Malik Reneau there.
nojeanshere: “Which guys from that class who transferred due to playtime/other factors do you think will end up making a good showcase of themselves in their new situations? So Power, Holloway, Stojakovic, Biliew and Stewart.”
I think Amani Hansberry is a big winner here. He is not a name you see on many of the early boards. But when I saw him for the first time almost two years ago, I knew he was a talent I would fall in love with easily. He was recruited by Chester Frazier, who left Illinois for West Virginia to serve as an assistant for Coach DeVries. I don’t have any intel on the situation, but purely looking at the situation, Hansberry will play good minutes there to show himself to NBA scouts.
Andrej Stojakovic is another one. Going to California to serve in the Jaylon Tyson role is a homerun decision for him. Coach Madsen knows how to utilize talent, and what I appreciate about him is that he’s also personally recruiting at non-Division I schools such as JUCO to find the right personnel.
Garwey Dual is riskier, but if he gets the on-ball reps, that’s another one. No more Kadary Richmond in Seton Hall anymore, so he could slide into that point guard role for them.
Regarding the guys you named, I don’t like the TJ Power one to Virginia. Holloway to Alabama is going from a stacked team to another one, I think we’ll not hear much about him for next year’s draft. Biliew should have stayed patient and stuck with a winning program at Iowa State, but perhaps NIL was a business decision in his case. I like Sean Steward going to Ohio State, he can play a serious role there in the Big Ten.
The-Baked-Bean: “Who are your top 3 prospects at each position?”
PG: Dink Pate, Amier Ali, Nolan Traore
SG: Tre Johnson, Egor Demin, Joson Sanon
SF: Cooper Flagg, Noa Essengue, Jarin Stevenson
PF: Amani Hansberry, Collin Murray-Boyles, Michael Ruzic
C: Khaman Maluach, Owen Freeman, Johann Grünloh
The focus here is on the underclassmen. To keep this piece readable, I didn’t go into detail as to why I chose these players.
The-Baked-Bean: “In your opinion, what skills do you think are the hardest and easiest for a player to improve on?”
I love talking about this. To me, the hardest skill to improve on is decision-making. Because good decision-makers master the fundamentals and have the needed ability to process the game quickly. Whether it’s making decisions to rotate on defense, execute a live-ball read in a certain way, or simply relocate to a certain spot on the court as an off-ball player, it’s vital to immediately make a best estimate of the best and worst that can happen after your action.
An area that makes it easier to be a good decision-maker is to not be afraid to make mistakes. That’s where body language and vocality come into play. Players who communicate on the floor, own their mistakes, and take responsibility are the ones coaches will allow to play through mistakes the most. If the chemistry on the team is good enough and players buy into what the coaches want, I am confident in saying that no coach in the world would be punished for making mistakes.
The tough part here is that in grassroots and college basketball in general, the old-school thought of a four-year player is getting more seldom. This leads to players changing teams on the fly and in grassroots most prospects aim to take the most out of their blessing of the years that they are a student-athlete.
Another hard skill to learn is shot selection because it’s so closely attached to decision-making. It’s mind-boggling to me when people say things as “the shot selection will improve” in an easy way because if the lack of feel for good decision-making isn’t there, that shot selection will stay the same as tough, contested shots are an outcome for players simply following their instincts when the situation arrives.
The easiest skill to learn is effort. There are prospects out there that take the situation they are in for granted. A lack of effort has a trickle-down effect on their performance on the court. This is a reason why some of the most naturally talented prospects never make it.
Getting outworked by their less gifted peers is what I love to see in these situations. That comes from me growing up with European basketball, where the team concept and fundamentals come first, and it doesn’t matter how good you are, you still have to play 25 to 30 minutes per night at most and earn the on-ball reps, just like anyone else. The positive here for American basketball is that this mindset is eventually going to change grassroots basketball. With many finding their way across the pond and ending up playing college basketball, the scholarships will be more seldom for incoming talent. That’s wishful thinking from my side, but feasible with the way NIL has changed the whole college basketball landscape.
Another easy skill to learn is moving toward the ball on passes. Especially for shooters. Getting planted in the corner usually leads to the temptation of just seeing the offensive possession out. But being ready and moving toward the ball gives you an advantage over the defense. Always. This is because the defender is now the one who has to respond or close out, opening room to attack the interior, pass, or simply shoot. Small habits such as these lead to better in-game experience in improving decision-making.
JarrettCulver: “You had Reed Sheppard ranked pretty low (in the 20s iirc). Have you reconsidered your opinion about him after his showing in Summer League?”
I touched on this question on Reddit, with my reasoning for having him outside of the top ten was his size combined with a lack of PG skills. The team context around Kentucky made it easier for him to focus on what he does best. But that wasn't fair to Reed.
He's a promising NBA defender despite the lack of size due to his great feel for the game and decision-making on that end. He doesn't have to be the leading guard but rather serves as a reliable secondary creator in on-ball settings.
His floor-spacing and shooting gravity will open up Houston's offense with him on the floor. A backcourt with him and Amen is what the Rockets eventually bank on, I think. I was wrong on Reed Sheppard, and I am owning that draft mistake to take lessons from them.
CourtVizion: “Outside of some of the more popular top 5 guys (Cooper, Ace, VJ, Nolan, Dylan), who have been some of your favorite prospects so far for 2025?”
I have Tre Johnson at number two overall as of now. I still have to watch many guys, but his combination of size, offensive creativity, and handles make him a special prospect. He thrives on making the toughest shots possible, and in college basketball that’s the risk he’ll face. Because once it gets ‘serious’, that’s not what NBA decision-makers want to see consistently.
On the other hand, that does show pure number one option potential, hence him having so high. But fitting into a team and still impacting the game with less usage is his challenge at Texas. Something that earns him a lot of my respect is his staying close to home. Texas isn’t known for putting NBA prospects in the best positions for a couple of years now. But as a Dallas-born, it’s cool to see an old-school approach to staying in the same state.
Another area to improve for him is to get stronger. That’s a common thing with young prospects, but at 6’6”, Johnson won’t be solely guarding against ones and twos, as he’ll have to show that he can play against stronger and taller wings as well.
CourtVizion: “Based on some of the guys you've already scouted, who do you think may have an easy time adjusting to the NBA thanks to their skillset?”
This mainly goes for the lower-usage roles. Especially for shooting-heavy wings who are expected to play as slashers as well. Michael Ruzic from Joventut Badalona is one of these candidates. His challenges are that his body isn’t ready to play against NBA-caliber athletes. If he gradually improves that part of his profile this year, I can see him play NBA minutes right away.
Ryan Kalkbrenner is another one. A defense-anchoring big man who is a good pick-and-roll defender. His value as a rim deterrent while having a great touch around the rim to serve as a play-finisher will have playoff teams all over him on draft night. The New York Knicks for example are a great fit and need him right away.
Another one I like is Dink Pate. He’ll have two seasons of NBA-paced basketball under his belt. He didn’t play much at the Ignite in the early stages, mostly due to his young age. But when he found minutes later on in the season, it was crystal clear that he was a born point guard. At 6’8”, that is what NBA teams will be drooling over. The Capitanes are a competing team, so the factor of winning is what will influence his draft stock heavily. If he can lead that offense successfully while showing the same flashes, he will go in the top ten.
CourtVizion: “What was the most surprising/interesting thing you've learned from your scouting on the 2024 class that will change how you evaluate guys in the 2025 class?”
Dillon Jones is an interesting business case. The Oklahoma City Thunder front office is a leader, with many other franchises being followers. Their style of testing upperclassmen production combined with how scalable their game is, makes them make unexpected decisions. I didn’t see it coming that Jones would be a first-rounder, not by the slightest.
Looking at what they need, it makes sense. More wing scoring is what they get in Jones, who had to do it all last year for Weber State, rightfully earning him Big Sky Player of the Year. But looking at his four-year career at Weber State, he had to grow into that role step by step. Enrique Freeman from Akron is a similar case. Another upperclassman whose production mattered, while he also grew from a walk-on to a team’s number one guy.
This changes my view on mid-majors, and I will focus more on them than I already did. Most of my write-ups on less-heralded prospects are on players fitting that archetype of a usage-high wing who knows how to play a certain role. Looking back at my draft cycle, I was doing the same things, but now it will have more focus, with upperclassmen being the focus. Because at a certain point, it’s not relevant what the long-term potential is anymore, some teams need a specific role and help right away.
If you have questions for the next Mailbag, DM me via X, Reddit, or Substack, and I will collect all questions. I plan to do these every month!
I feel like one of the hardest skills to develop that never gets touched on is a players handle. When I see a theoretical perimeter big or smaller off ball guard. (Let's use Bronny and Alex Sarr for examples) I struggle so much to determine how long it is going to take those players to develop those skills, as the track record for it is so spotty.