Johann Grünloh Scouting Report
We start the 2025 draft cycle off with one of the best prospects from Germany. Grünloh has all the tools to be a starter-level center in the NBA. What will be his role? What's the intrigue? Find out.
Grünloh is one of the top center prospects in Europe. While dominating the German youth ranks, the 18-year-old played close to 1,100 minutes of professional basketball this past season. With his team Rasta Vechta having a successful year, they will also play in the Basketball Champions League next season, the third-tier international competition in Europe.
While growing up, Grünloh competed with older players consistently. It came to the point where he set the record for blocks per game in the Adidas Next Generation Tournament in Patras, Greece in 2023. His team finished fifth and Grünloh continued to put his name on NBA radars.
Physical Profile
At 6’11”, Grünloh has an ideal center size while bulking up to 225 pounds. His team invested a lot of time and effort into his strength and conditioning, adjusting his nutrition. He’s most known as a shot-blocker, but for the NBA his mobility, fluid hips, and excellent footwork are the biggest traits.
With the modern NBA focusing more on motion and ball movement while running four and five-out offenses, it’s feasible that drop coverage will be a less-used defensive scheme among centers. That’s the value in Grünloh’s profile as his ability to stretch the floor as a shooter, and his variation in ways to guard in the pick-and-roll is what most NBA teams are looking for.
With good foot speed, while improving in his ability to absorb contact, Grünloh won’t need much time to adjust to the athleticism of the NBA.
Defense
In Grünloh’s pick-and-roll defense, his maturity stands out. He’s not bothered by physical contact and slides off it very well, as shown in the first play below. In the ICE, he does well to not get lured into the foul by using his excellent length to bother the ball handler and contest the elbow three. Hereafter he does well to immediately get into defensive box-out mode to deliver an extra body in the attempt to secure the defensive rebound.
The second possession starts with Grünloh tagging the screener, giving him room to drop and switch to the ball handler. His footwork stood out here, as he can keep up with his opponent laterally, while not losing his balance in the process. The area of development for Grünloh is to be less reactive to what the ball handler wants and be more aggressive near the basket, which is his territory. A reactive approach led to the easy two points after the scorer had no option left when he went under the rim a second before the finish.
In the third play, Grünloh does well to push off the screener and launch to stay in front of the scorer who attacked the strong side after utilizing the ball screen. That’s the area where its value as a rim presence and shot deterrent comes into place. Despite the open lay-up, he bothered his opponent enough to create an unbalanced finish. That’s the value Grünloh will bring to the NBA to answer rim pressure on a better-spaced floor compared to Europe.
The last play shows an area of development in his defensive footwork. After not allowing the screener entry to the interior, Grünloh struggled to put his pivot foot well enough to keep his body ready to slide his feet. That led to the blow-by and finish at the rim. Against better athletes in the NBA, decision-makers should focus on working on his positioning in pick-and-roll defense, where Grünloh was too far on the left side of the interior, making it hard for him to quickly relocate with the middle opening up.
When defending against closeout-attackers, Grünloh has excellent body control to where he’s not vulnerable in biting on fakes or losing his balance on jab steps. That’s the outcome of him using his mobility to his advantage, leading to Grünloh being a rotational piece for his team at 21 minutes per game. In the first play, he uses his pivot foot very well while keeping a healthy distance to be able to stay in front of his assignment laterally while being able to contest sudden pull-up jumpers using his length.
While we see several NBA centers who get their blocked shots trailing from behind, Grünloh’s footwork and lateral quickness lead to him keeping most opponents in front of him. His decent vertical pop and good timing resulted in the block in the second possession below, with no risks for personal fouls. His toughness level is at a mature level, leading to only 2.5 whistles per game against him.
In the third play, Grünloh looks overwhelmed by the sudden pop to the rim. but his pivot foot led to him keeping his balance and being able to correct his stance near the rim. An important detail is that he forces another unbalanced shot at the rim, leading to a miss. Despite his young age, being able to have that impact without fouling is what NBA decision-makers look for in an interior defender and rim protector.
The last possession starts well for Grünloh, forcing a bail-out pass after the ball handler fails to get by him. However, the jab step followed by the step-back jumper was too much to overcome on that possession. And that’s okay. Grünloh will need to make mistakes like these to learn, considering that he’ll face offensively creative guards in the NBA who will challenge him in isolation like that. A good learning moment for Grünloh.
As an off-ball defender against cutters, Grünloh has good awareness and instincts to continue to build on. Despite not executing his defensive reads consistently yet, it’s another plus in his profile for NBA decision-makers to work with. His fluid hips and mobility work in his favor, with his intercepting the lob pass in the first play being an example. He rotates well before the steal, while not backing down in the physical battle before the play.
In FIBA-organized games, there is no defensive three-second rule. That’s an important nuance when seeing Grünloh stick in the paint in some plays. In the second possession, we see a rare combination of court vision, rotations and not ball-watching for too long considering his young age. While fluidly switching back to his assignment, he deflects the finish, while showing a second jump which is another promising indicator in his profile.
The third play shows Grünloh gambling on the miss with the low-post floater. Again: that’s mostly on Rasta Vechta’s defensive scheme where he has to crowd the paint and play underneath the basket. Therefore, it’s not a good comparison as in the NBA he wouldn’t be allowed to defend like that. An important detail in this play is the sudden check to see if he’s getting the backdoor cut or not a second before the play-finisher receives the pass. This confirms his good defensive awareness.
In off-ball defense, communication and coaching is another crucial factor. Despite being the youngest player on the court, Grünloh doesn’t shy away from coaching his teammates on the floor in the fourth play. As the rim protector, he defends his territory well in this 3-2 zone, whereafter Grünloh contests the low-post finish from the right side hard. Despite the rookie mistake with his box-out leading to a second-chance opportunity, that’s the process that is promising for the long run.
When it comes to defending against spot-up shooters, Grünloh shows a consistent effort level in contesting hard despite the amount of ground he has to cover. Usually, some centers who want to maximize their energy on impactable plays end up not closing out and betting on the defensive rebound instead when the distance between the shooters is too much to overcome. In Grünloh’s case, that’s not applicable. That’s a positive in not allowing too many open threes, but a potential negative when it comes to the defensive rebounding numbers.
In the first play, Grünloh shows good body control to slide off his assignment wanting to post up to close out on the shooter. As mentioned above, this led to the risk of the opposing center, the biggest rebounding threat, crashing the offensive glass with Grünloh not position to box out. So that’ll put more emphasis on a team’s defensive scheme if they want Grünloh to close out on shooters like that or not. In the second possession, we see Grünloh hedge the pick-and-roll, whereafter he quickly returns to his assignment at the elbow, coming up with the good shot contest, whereafter he’s first to get to the other side in transition.
Grünloh follows it up with a good rotation in the third play below, leading to him completely blocking the elbow three. A positive here is that he sees help defense committing to the post-up play, whereafter Grünloh zones out by covering the interior to both shooters stationed above the break and at the elbows. In the fourth possession, ball movement is what was at risk for Grünloh, as his decision-making is good to not rotate with the ball, and rather trust his teammate to fill in the weak side. As a stationary defender, his shot contests are consistent, giving it more feasibility in determining if it will translate to the NBA.
Offense
At 24 three-point attempts throughout 51 games in the season, the sample size is limited. Therefore, his 29.2% finishing rate is not relevant, as the process of the jumper is more crucial for his evaluation. All attempts show the same shooting form where Grünloh is a tad too slow in setting his feet but shows much more fluidity and quickness in his release. He has a low release point, which could lead to NBA teams wanting to tweak his mechanics to work on him releasing the ball at a higher point.
Another area of development is Grünloh being strong enough to keep the ball high on the catch. Thus, him lowering the ball to power back up combined with taking a tad too long to set his feet bails defenses out in their closeouts on his shots. Therefore, it’s likely an NBA decision-maker would want to see him use his strength to his advantage and keep the ball high on catch-and-shoot attempts.
When looking at the form, the quickness in getting his shot off after setting his feet is promising for the long run. Grünloh shows consistency in all four attempts below, where the volume of attempts this upcoming season has to go up to see how feasible the jumper is in a faster-paced NBA game.
At a 15.9% offensive rebounding rate, Grünloh crashing the offensive glass for putbacks is becoming his M.O. In a more halfcourt-focused European game compared to the NBA, his team can afford to let Grünloh rebound as much as he can. For the next level, the context here depends on how much a team wants to push the tempo in transition. With his overall quickness, it’s feasible to conclude that Grünloh will have fewer issues running up and down the court compared to his peers. Especially with his conditioning improving this past season, that will lead to NBA decision-makers seeing an impact-maker on the offensive glass when it comes to his NBA role.
Compared to his shooting off the catch, Grünloh does well in keeping the ball high after collecting the rebound. He gives flashes of Marc Gasol on that end, where the execution looks simple, but it’s the body control and composure that leads to offensive rebounds without committing over-the-back fouls. The second play is an excellent example of the above-mentioned. Overall, we see a trend of NBA centers continuing to bank on garbage points as a part of their production. That will remain the same with Grünloh’s role at the next level, despite the floor-stretching characteristics of his game. In terms of offensive versatility, he impacts the glass and interior, giving him a comfortable position compared to his peers, as NBA decision-makers want to buy as much versatility as they can in a center prospect.
Therefore, Grünloh’s motor and energy level are crucial indicators for his draft stock. With examples such as the third play below, his impacting the interior of the opponent with his presence is what will become an important part of the evaluation of his offensive potential this upcoming season.
At 41 assists to 67 turnovers, the numbers don’t indicate a passer in Grünloh. However, this is not the case, as he can evolve into a good ball-mover and playmaker in the future. Creating advantages in the post by forcing help defenders to collapse on him is what will open up the rest of the floor for his teammates. In a role as a play-finisher where the guards set the offensive up, there is not much need for Grünloh to support his team with his passing, leading to a part of the context for the 0.8 assists per game.
While evaluating each of his post-up plays, there’s a consistent factor of Grünloh forcing his offense at times, rather than passing out of his post-ups. The first play is a good example. With great footwork and body control, he gets in position to get a decent look off, but with NBA teams wanting to play at a faster pace, he won’t be allowed to take his time with his post-ups.
Therefore, Grünloh must adjust that part of his game to make quick decisions out of entry passes. He should either keep the ball moving with an extra pass, set a teammate up if help defense arrives, or execute his offensive plays quicker. Too many possessions as the first and second plays will take the rhythm out of an offense, leading to NBA teams not wanting to give Grünloh the post-up opportunities that he needs for his development.
The positives are the footwork and touch at the rim. At times, especially against contact, Grünloh pushes the ball more than showing soft touch at his finishes; an area of development for this upcoming season. He’s also right-hand dominant in his finishes, while the combination of his footwork and two-handed finishing could lead to his whole offense opening up, as he becomes less predictable to his opponents for their scouting reports.
The outcome of the above-mentioned will look like the fourth play below. Grünloh passes out of the entry pass quickly to reposition and quickly execute his post-up. Despite the miss, that’s the level of pace Grünloh should focus on adding to his developmental plans for this upcoming season.
As a play-finisher, Grünloh is too predictable for the much more experienced professional players he’s facing. Therefore, experimenting by using jab steps and pump-fakes will open his game up. At times, as shown in the first play below, he’s bailing the defense out by trying to finish over their good positioning in the rim. With his level of footwork, vertical pop, and decision-making, being more creative in his play finishes is a must-have to maintain a team’s offensive rating at par.
In the second possession below, we see Grünloh experiment with the fake, but it was an easy one to predict with two defenders on top of him. His positive tendency to keep the ball high doesn’t lead to enough power in his jump to draw the foul. With better pump fakes, Grünloh can increase his number of free-throw attempts. As of now, he’s averaging two per game, converting them at a healthy 70% clip.
His nature as a play-finisher looks much more fluid when he comes out of screening actions, such as the double-stagger in the third play below. That’s an example of the soft-touch finishes he’s able to generate while attacking the glass as a face-up scoring cutter. The level of athleticism to utilize for NBA teams can be seen in the fourth play below. Grünloh uses his length and size very well to his advantage, finishing the lob pass at a tough angle near the basket. This leaves NBA decision-makers enough room to take the most out of his untapped potential.
NBA Draft Projection
With Grünloh being one of the younger prospects in this class, the level of long-term potential combined with NBA-ready elements is what NBA teams are buying. For an NBA decision-maker, here are the above-mentioned areas summarized:
Strengths
A great pick-and-roll defender who can do more than drop coverage. His level of footwork, body control, and decision-making are excellent considering his young age.
A good athlete with good vertical pop. This benefits both his shot-blocking and play-finishing, whereas Grünloh has a Gasol-esque method where he keeps the ball high at all times.
Excellent rebounder. That’s an area to impact on both ends of the floor, as NBA teams are winning games on the margins, with the amount of possessions being a big part of the process. In Grünloh teams are buying improvements to their offensive rating in his activity as a high-rate offensive rebounder.
Areas of development
The jumper needs work. Grünloh is slow to set his feet, despite a quick release. The release point is low and thus an NBA decision-maker might want to tweak his jumper early on in his career.
Predictable play-finisher. Shows zero to no offensive creativity in terms of jab steps or pump-fakes to create scoring angles.
Limited passes out of post-ups. Combined with his slow decision-making via entry passes, Grünloh has to improve on that end to show NBA decision-makers he can match a faster-paced NBA game.
Based on the above-mentioned strengths and areas of development alongside the details in this scouting report, I project Johann Grünloh to be a late first-round pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, with 21 to 30 being a realistic range.