Tarris Reed Jr. Scouting Report
The Hunter Dickinson era comes to an end. But the Wolverines can look forward to Tarris Reed Jr. stepping up to quickly fill in the gap left open by the former All-American. How? Find out more below.
Playing the center position is one of the toughest things to do in college basketball, especially in the Big Ten. The same applied to Tarris Reed Jr. who had a limited role as a backup center behind Hunter Dickinson in his freshman season. Now with Dickinson leaving for Kansas, what will Reed Jr.’s sophomore season look like?
Physical Profile
At 6’10”, Reed Jr. stands out with a long 7’4” wingspan and an NBA-ready frame. At 260 pounds, he has a lot of strength in his lower body and possesses solid hip mobility. The amount of old-school big bodies dominating the paint is getting lesser in the NBA, making Reed Jr. a fairly unique prospect for the 2024 NBA Draft class.
Offense
The first thing that stood out in Reed Jr.’s pre-college film is his footwork. Usually, we see young big men having that one go-to move they defer to, however, with Reed Jr. the Wolverines were getting a freshman with a complete scoring package.
It’s still a mystery to me why Reed Jr. wasn’t classified as a five-star recruit, especially considering he checks so many boxes on both ends. On the offensive end, his ability to finish with both hands and over both shoulders makes him unpredictable. Combined with his ability to convert jumpers, whether it is as a fadeaway via post-ups or off the catch, Reed Jr. gives defenses a lot to worry about.
With Reed Jr. relocating to the top of the key, the confidence in his jumper is something that caught my attention. He quickly turns after receiving the entry pass, followed by a midrange jumper. Although he needs a higher release to be more effective at the next level, Reed Jr. makes up for that aspect with the quick release, as shown in the clip above.
With floor-stretching centers earning more respect in the league, being able to drain open threes is slowly becoming a must. However, Reed Jr. doesn’t have any issues taking the open shots the defense is giving him. With free-throw numbers being a common indicator for low-volume shooters, Reed Jr. shot 66.2% on 65 attempts during his time at Link Academy, which fell to 38.2% in his college freshman season.
Looking at the mechanics, his elbow is taking a “V” shaped form before the release, which is something I prefer to see. Therefore, I value the free-throw numbers less than I’d normally do, especially considering that each of the 16 three-point attempts he took at Link Academy had consistency in them in terms of the mechanics.
Considering his NBA role, Reed Jr. will have limited usage in terms of scoring in the post via self-created looks. However, the scalable part that keeps NBA value to his scoring game in the post is his ability to serve as a face-up bucket-getter. The combination of footwork, power to force his will to the defense, and soft touch at the rim make Reed Jr. one of the most dangerous big men in the Big Ten.
Against Michigan State, Reed Jr. has shown Coach Howard can rely on him in isolation. Although the sample size is limited, he again showed consistency in the way he got to his attempts. What caught my attention was his patience and choosing the right looks instead of forcing the issue or taking what the defense gave him.
This detail is important when evaluating his passing game. The NBA has a urging need for more passing big men with how the game is being played; ball movement and multiple playmakers are becoming more important to playing winning basketball.
In the play below, Reed Jr. is leveraging his ability to play bully ball by forcing the defense to either rotate or send help to his defender. What stands out is his footwork and the way he’s using his pivot foot at first didn’t sell the defense the idea of him executing his read with the dropoff pass to the cutter.
One of the most important physical aspects to consider is hand-eye coordination. Reed Jr. has huge hands, and impressively he’s able to catch passes effortlessly. This adds more value to his passing ability, with teams being able to utilize him more as a playmaking hub, on top of playing in a more common role as a ball-moving screener.
Michigan was forced to play Reed Jr. as a four most of the time during his freshman campaign. This led to the context of the film study being different than I’d hoped for, therefore, I value the high school tape as an important factor to project his role in the long run.
Another risk is that with a higher-paced NBA game, Reed Jr. has to prove to NBA decision-makers that his lateral quickness and overall speed remain at a high level with him reaching 260 pounds. And that’s the case so far. He’s comfortable in transition, even with the ball in his hands to finish off the play. However, it’s a must to keep monitoring the situation.
Defense
Tarris Reed Jr. has all the tools to eventually become a plus defender at the next level. Although he doesn’t stand out as a rim protector so far at Michigan, Reed Jr. has one of the most important qualities to have as a center in the NBA: help defense.
His feel for the game has improved throughout the season. What I liked about the way he operates on defense is that he’s vocal at all times and doesn’t lose track of his assignment and the ball, while early on in the season, I caught him gambling on defense a few times, which isn’t an issue considering his age. The contrary is true here, Reed Jr. being able to adapt fairly quickly to Coach Howard’s system tells me a lot about his work ethic and understanding of the game.
In the play below, Reed Jr. recognizes the Spartans going for the post-up with the mismatch in place. By slowly relocating to the free-throw line, he’s closing the cutting lane and keeps himself in position to hunt the block at the right time.
An area of development is Reed Jr. still biting on pump-fakes or being too aggressive at the rim against scoring guards. What caught my attention is that his defensive footwork is giving him advantages at guarding at the rim.
However, the way he’s using his physical strength is making it fairly easy for referees to call fouls. With almost 2 fouls in 13 minutes per game, Reed Jr. is giving signs that he isn’t able to stay on an NBA floor for a long time. Together with his free-throw shooting at 38.2%, it is a legitimate concern to keep in mind when evaluating his sophomore season.
The above-mentioned aggressiveness is being put to display in the play in the clip below. In crunch time, Reed Jr. gives Illinois an and-one at the rim on a play that started very well for him. Despite his 260 pounds, he’s staying in front of Shannon Jr., who’s forced to pick up his dribble and go for the finish in the post. Reed Jr. answers with his footwork, but goes in too aggressively, making it fairly easy for Shannon Jr. to take the contact for the foul, resulting in a potential and-one.
In the NBA, Reed Jr. will have to show that he’s a capable pick-and-roll defender. What we usually see is that teams try to run high P&Rs against teams with a bulky center down low. For young big men, guarding the P&R with consistency is one of the hardest things to accomplish.
In most of the cases, Reed Jr. opted to drop coverage, but his lack of experience was visible in most of the cases. In the play below, the Indiana Hoosiers run a P&R toward the corner to ensure Reed Jr. follows, resulting in Jackson-Davis collecting the ball inside the arc with Reed Jr. out of position. Although Indiana missed, Reed Jr. ended up on the other side of the defensive box-out, giving up the easy two points.
A positive in his profile is that he isn’t primarily playing as a drop-coverage big. He has the confidence to go over the screen or even on some occasions blitz the ball-handler hard. However, with his burst being limited, gambling too much usually leads to the defense falling apart and opponents targeting the play-finishers down low more easily. Finding a healthy balance in P&R coverages for Reed Jr. is a must for Coach Howard.
Against the P&R ball-handler, Reed Jr. is showing a lot more confidence, despite being at a disadvantage. I like his confidence to go over the screen in the play below, despite the shot clock winding down. His defensive footwork allows him to react better to the stutter move AJ Hoggard throws at him, before the pull-up jumper. The amount of ground he covers with the contest is what caught my attention. His long wingspan is working in his favor here.
With an offensive rebounding rate of 14.5%, Reed Jr. is looking solid. However, I’m more impressed with his defensive rebounding in the long run. What I like to see is that Reed Jr. doesn’t lose his assignment and boxes out hard on every play.
Taking his potential NBA role into consideration, I don’t expect teams to hit the offensive glass hard with Reed Jr. on the floor often, therefore we might see teams covering their defensive rating by lowering the chance for transition threes as much as possible.
It’s likely that NBA teams will focus on using Reed Jr. as a rim-running rebounder and play-finisher early on in his career. On the rebounding aspect, he has shown that he’s at the top of the list when it comes to underclassmen bigs. After carefully evaluating his film, I am confident that Reed Jr. will have quite a few games with double-digit rebounds.
NBA Draft Projection
Tarris Reed Jr. has the physical tools and scoring package to handle a higher usage role in his sophomore year. Showing more consistency from the free-throw line and showing willingness to shoot from three like he did in high school is going to be crucial.
In terms of his game in the post, Reed Jr. has shown more than enough during his time at Link Academy. The primary focus for him should be to utilize his passing and serve as a reliable ball-mover who occasionally looks to create for others in the short-roll.
As a defender, we have seen Reed Jr. being able to stay in front of ball-handlers in the P&R often. However, his tendency to be over-aggressive is costing him playing minutes, and combined with the foul trouble — 2 fouls per 12 minutes — it’s costing him draft stock so far in the process.
Improving his decision-making on that end of the floor is going to be an area I’ll actively monitor. If we see improvement and improved minutes with fewer fouls, Reed Jr. has all the opportunity to be a first-round pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.