Saint Thomas Scouting Report
A plus-athlete with traits of a reliable connector piece is promising to all NBA teams. The Big Sky Newcomer of the Year should get the draft buzz this summer. What's the intrigue? Find out below.
After spending the majority of his first two seasons on the bench, Thomas transferred to Northern Colorado. He quickly emerged as one of the Big Sky’s best players after immediately earning a starting role.
He has been at 20 or more points in 19 games this season. His team only lost four games in the same span. As an upperclassman at a mid-major conference, production becomes more important in determining the NBA readiness of a prospect. In Thomas’ case, his ability to impact his game in multiple ways put him on NBA radars.
Physical Profile
At 6’7”, Thomas has a strong frame and broad shoulders which allows him to guard up to four positions in college. At 200 pounds, he’ll likely continue to fill out his frame as he gets older.
His combination of power and finesse stands out when he’s attacking the rim. He’s fluid and moves his hips very well, which opens up room to serve as an interior scorer at the next level.
On the defensive end, those mentioned above led to him guarding in the post often. His ability to not give much ground, even against taller opponents ignites the scalability of his defensive profile.
Although his burst is good enough to create separation against most guards and wings, Thomas’ ability to handle contact on his drives makes him suitable to be a closeout-attacker on day one.
Offense
As a floor-spacer, Thomas’ primary task at the next level will be to serve as a spot-up shooter. While shooting 32.3% on 201 threes so far this season, the numbers don’t support what he’s showing on the court. Thomas has a consistent and quick shooting release, where the only area of development lies in him lowering the ball to his waist more often than not.
The third play below serves as an example of the quick release Thomas has in his arsenal. What stood out is that he looks more comfortable while shooting off movement than serving as a stand-still shooter. His biggest advantage is that an NBA game focused on ball movement and pace already suits his skillset very well.
Despite the below-average shooting numbers, Thomas shows he isn’t afraid to carry his team’s scoring load which is a part of the context behind the percentages.
Thomas’ biggest NBA value on the offensive end is his ability to create advantages off the catch in closeout situations. He understands angles very well and what stood out is his use of hesitation moves with his body to force a defender into a decision before he even catches the ball.
Often we see prospects catch the ball and make a play from a standstill. However, in Thomas’ case, he does very well to move toward the ball with his arms, as shown in the third play below, and using his body to force the closeout defender into opening a driving lane. Thomas has the craft and the handles to go east and west, leading to it not matter much which way he has to go to find himself a look at the rim.
As a result, he’s a 75.7% finisher at the rim on almost 4 rim attempts per game. Combining that with his 86.8% shooting from the line on over four tries led to the numbers confirming Thomas’ rim-finding threat a majority of NBA teams could use in their depth of wings.
While playing close to 30% usage, Thomas’ cutting is another trait that’ll serve him well at the next level. If he doesn’t have the ball in his hands, he’s an active cutter who makes the most out of time off the ball by using motion to open up space for others.
He uses the threat of his rim presence very well to force defenses to keep an eye on him in off-ball situations. Northern Colorado uses entry passes to the big man or high-low plays often to serve the cutting Thomas. The NBA’s trend of utilizing passing big men in combination with more motion-based offenses leads to Thomas being able to play in a role that requires him fewer ball touches compared to college.
Together with Thomas’ ability to make plays out of closeouts, it’s likely an NBA team will utilize his shot-creating skills via handoffs. In a switch-heavy NBA, his size, strength, and handles make him a threat in utilizing mismatches.
He can power himself to the rim against smaller wings and guards or use his craft to find gaps in the defense to get to his spots in the low post area. The league values ball movement and finding high-quality looks from beyond the arc. Thomas’ defense-collapsing drives already lead to him collecting over 7 assists in the last four games of the season.
Another area where Thomas’ offense will lead to production is his ability to decelerate and accelerate during his drives, making him a pull-up shooting threat in those handoff situations with the first play below being an example.
In the long run, Thomas’ handles, craft, and shot-creating abilities will lead him to get more on-ball reps to grow into a scoring wing at the NBA level. What stood out in his reps as the pick-and-roll ball handler is his getting to his spots in various ways.
His shot selection is a key factor in his potential to handle more ball touches in the future. When it comes to him making plays out of the pick-and-roll, an area of development for Thomas is to involve others a tad more than his current role requires. His having to carry a big chunk of the scoring load is the context behind him preferring his shots more often than not.
Defense
As a defender, Thomas has an opportunity to earn himself long minutes on the court due to his strength and defensive footwork. While defending closeouts, Thomas consistently forces ball handlers to beat him off the dribble. Near the rim, his ability to deter shots will lead to him being able to serve as a multipositional defender.
In the first play below we see Thomas slightly losing his balance after setting his pivot foot too far out during his closeout. However, he recovers well and keeps the ball handler in front of him, denying the shot using his long wingspan. In the second play, we see Thomas again absorbing contact leading to him again forcing his man to take a bad shot.
There’s one area of development he has to work on, being his habit of biting too quickly on fakes, which makes him more vulnerable as we saw this being used against him often in Big Sky conference play.
Another area of development is his positioning on defense. In the first play below, we see Thomas providing help defense against the post-up, however, he positions himself closer to the baseline instead of the perimeter, making it an easy kick-out pass and the wide-open three given up.
Thomas’ strong will to make winning plays on defense can lead to him giving up too much space between himself and the perimeter. On a better-spaced NBA floor that’s a risk for a team’s defensive rating, thus leading to him not playing as much as he could.
The second play is another example of Thomas’ positioning leading to an open three, instead of staying close but not too close, the big man’s post-up lured Thomas into trying to strip him from the ball. In the third play, Thomas doesn’t look focused, allowing the elbow shooter to take the wide-open three. Being dialed into the defensive plays at all times is another area where Thomas has to improve.
At 6’7”, Thomas is still filling out his frame. However, the level of strength at his age is impressive, leading him to be able to play as a four in a smaller line-up. In a more post-up-heavy college game compared to the NBA, Coach Smiley trusts his junior wing to defend the interior.
In the first play, Thomas does well to hold his ground after multiple bumps into him. He doesn’t give up much ground and holds his arms up timely. In the second play, we see Thomas defending the post-up successfully against the Big Sky MVP.
Usually, we see Thomas being more vulnerable against fakes, however, when he’s locked in as he was here, his decision-making becomes much better, giving more confidence he can guard the opponent’s best player on all three levels. With traits such as these, Thomas can likely be used as an NBA four in smaller more shooting-heavy line-ups.
As an off-ball defender, we see Thomas’ positioning getting in his way more often than not. In the first play, movement around him lures him into stepping out and getting too close to the perimeter, leading to the backdoor cut. In Thomas’ case, his long wingspan and decent burst should make him give up ground easier than trying to not give an offensive player an inch of space.
His will to win is clear but at times Thomas’ lack of decision-making leads to his team’s defensive sets being more vulnerable against ball movement and motion. In the last play below we see an example of what Thomas can do with his physical tools. He bites on the pump fake and loses his ball handler to the drive. With a timely rotation by his teammate, Thomas has the chance to recover and makes a winning play by denying the big man an easy look down low.
In a switch-heavy NBA, it’s getting a must for wings to be able to serve as defenders in pick-and-roll sets. The first area of development for Thomas is his screen navigation. He’s dialed in too much into what the ball handler is going to do, which led to him not seeing the incoming ball screen in the first play below, leading to giving up the wide-open driving lane.
His opponent wants the switch in the second play, where Thomas shows lateral quickness to keep his man in front of him, leading to forcing him to take a tough midrange jumper. Despite losing his balance for a second after the stepback, he recovers well using his long wingspan to contest the shot.
NBA Draft Projection
There’s a need for switchable defenders who are strong enough to guard up to four positions. In Thomas’ case, that’s the potential he has to offer to NBA scouts. He has to clean up his positioning and focus on the defensive end in the long run. However, his strength and defensive footwork are two areas that serve him well so far at the college level.
On the offensive end, Thomas is one of the more efficient rim finishers in the country. His ability to get downhill and force defenses to adjust to what he wants. Thomas understands angles very well and uses lots of hesitation moves to make the defense guess what his move will be, with and without the ball.
Despite the below-average shooting numbers, there’s promise for him to serve as a reliable shooter with the volume increasing in coming years. The context behind it is that Thomas has to carry a large chunk of Northern Colorado’s scoring load, leading to inefficiencies on some nights.
With his solid handles and ability to change his pace, Thomas has enough untapped potential for a higher-usage role in the future. Despite entering the draft as an upperclassman, there’s untapped potential for NBA teams to discover.
I expect Thomas to test the waters this summer. The defensive areas of development likely won’t lead to early playing time. However, his profile as a multi-positional connector piece with a scalable offensive game should have teams intrigued in taking him in and developing him via the G League.
Based on the above-mentioned, I project Thomas to be selected in the first half of the second round in the 2024 NBA Draft.