Ryan Dunn Scouting Report

As one of the best college defenders in the last few college seasons, Ryan Dunn has a clear value for NBA teams. Despite all skepticism, I'm a firm believer in his offense. Why? Find out below.

While putting up historic steal and block rates, Dunn became one of the best defenders in recent college basketball history. His sophomore season makes him one of two underclassmen at 6’8” or under to put up a 10% block rate and 2.5% steal rate or better. Despite his offensive woes, analytics-driven NBA front offices will have Dunn on their priority list.

In the long run, Dunn must become a neutral player on offense to maintain a team’s offensive rating with him on the floor. His play-finishing role at Virginia doesn’t have to end up being how NBA teams will use him on offense. Despite clear struggles from him on offense, the path to growth via NBA development is a realistic outcome.

This scouting report solely serves as a feasibility test for the above-mentioned expectation.

Physical Profile

Dun is measured at 6’6.25” without shoes. With a 7’1.50” wingspan, his length is a value-riser when considering his solid upper-body strength. He offers true wing size and already guards multiple positions in a defensive-minded Virginia system.

He has great mobility, mostly via his fluid hips, and good lateral quickness. Dunn doesn’t have a quick first step when comparing it to other NBA athletes, but his ability to decelerate with a great last step helps him to keep his balance at all times. His footwork is the primary reason why he’s such a reliable on-ball defender.

On the offensive end, his footwork is developing, where he’s mostly being used as a play-finisher on cuts. While his mobility is a clear translatable part of his game, there are areas to clean up regarding Dunn’s usage of his physical tools to be productive.

Offense

As per ShotQuality.com, Virginia ranked outside the top 250 when it came to efficiency on plays via cuts. Dunn was a clear positive for them on that end. Despite the slow-paced offense they ran, Dunn consistently shows his willingness to stay in motion, opening himself up for finishes at the rim.

At 67.9% finishing at the rim, that’s a good number for Dunn to work with. Despite being a right-hand dominant finisher near the basket, Dunn uses motion to leverage his physical tools to keep defenses on their heels. On an NBA floor, teams will ignore him when he’s stationed in the corner during half-court settings. However, teams relying on motion in their offensive schemes will use Dunn’s active cutting to create space for others on the floor.

Having a cutting-heavy offensive scoring package won’t benefit Dunn in the long run. But it’s a solid base to take his part of the scoring load to keep a team’s offensive rating on par. What makes it feasible that he’ll succeed in the long run is Dunn’s decision-making before making cuts.

In the first two plays below, Dunn is reacting to how the ball handler is operating in the interior to relocate to his potential cutting lanes. In the first play, he moves toward the elbow to potentially get open for a three whereafter he’s utilizing the cutting lane in the middle. With teams ignoring his three-point shooting, that’s Dunn’s answer to force opponents to keep an eye on him.

In the second play, Dunn makes a winning play that the NBA focuses on. He positions himself in front of the cutting elbow shooter’s assignment to eventually set the screen that keeps the shooter open. However, with the area around the rim opening up, he slides between two defenders to receive the dump-off for the dunk.

In plays three and four below, Dunn shows a combination of backdoor cutting after getting ignored while he’s in the corner. Despite being guarded well, he shows his fluid hips with the spin move before the finish. In the fourth play below, we again see Dunn station himself as a pindown-screener, whereafter he fakes the screen and relocates to the middle to receive the dump-off pass.

Well-thought motion is what NBA teams look for, and that’s where Dunn sets himself up to succeed on that end.

Motion offense with ball movement will come down to Dunn getting ball touches on an NBA floor. He’ll have fewer on-ball duties compared to his role at Virginia, but will still be asked to serve as a ball-mover. Therefore, his plays utilizing off-ball screens are another crucial factor for his NBA role in terms of maintaining a team’s offensive rating.

In the four plays below, Virginia prepared schemes where Dunn was the recipient of cuts after entry or side passes. Simple schemes that NBA teams have no issue defending against. However, Dunn has a good feel for the game as a cutter by selling the idea he’s relocating to the corner. By nonchalantly cutting inside the arc, he keeps the defense’s attention to the ball handler on the perimeter, knowing how Dunn is ignored in the corner.

In the third play, we see an example of what Dunn could look like if everything clicks in the future. Strong cut, using his screen-faking to get away from his assignment followed up by quickly moving his hips upon catching the pass in the middle.

An area of development for Dunn is the lack of self-confidence when he’s generally getting his looks near the rim. The misses in the first two plays below are followed up by body language expressing disappointment in himself. Therefore, throughout the season and especially near the end when things went south for Virginia, Dunn’s confidence dramatically decreased.

The psychological aspect of the game is an underrated part of scouting. This is because game film doesn’t tell the whole story. Therefore, an NBA decision-maker must make the mental part of the game to get Dunn prepared as a crucial part of their developmental plan.

While shooting 23.5% on 51 three-point attempts throughout his two-year college career, the sample size is limited. However, from his mechanics to his body stance, it’s clear why the numbers are what they are.

Dunn does well to set his feet quickly, which is the base to grow into a neutral shooter in the NBA. However, after the catch, he moves his body backward while powering up for the jumper. That’s an unorthodox method usually not succeeding. Despite Dunn’s good upper-leg strength, setting his feet without lowering the ball under his waist should be an area of focus for NBA teams to work on in the early stages of his NBA career.

The fast-paced G League is a good environment for Dunn to improve as a shooter. As shown in the third play below, Dunn shows an example of him getting his jumper off with a high-arcing release without lowering the ball under his waist after the catch. An area of development is Dunn moving toward the ball and not just waiting for the pass.

With him being capable of setting his pivot foot quickly, he’ll be much more comfortable getting to his jumper off the move instead of from a stand-still. In the last play below, the clunky movement shortly after the catch led to Dunn’s accuracy of his jumper not matching how that shot was intended. Nevertheless, Dunn shows the capability to move toward the ball as he did in the first play below where the shot looked more fluid despite the miss.

Dunn is a 75 %-finisher in transition. Using his physical tools in the open court is a must-have to find a part of his production at the next level. What stood out on this end compared to many of his peers is how Dunn uses long strides to get across the court quickly. As a multi-positional defender, the odds of Dunn ending up on the perimeter increase, thus making it feasible that he’ll be in a position to get in position to cash in on live-ball turnovers his team forces, as shown in the first play below.

Applying ball pressure is one of his primary weapons. In the second play below, there’s another live-ball turnover forced where Dunn shows the basics in his handles he picks it up and finishes with an east-to-west move inside the arc.

In the last two plays, Dunn shows good positioning to get himself open for the pass in transition. Or to cash in on backdoor cuts as shown in the fourth play below. His good habits that make him such an effective cutter are what he will rely on as it’s more likely Dunn will run in transition as the off-ball player more often than not.

Dunn’s productivity in the open court will account for a small portion of his offensive scoring load, but having the basics to produce early is an important factor for his early NBA success.

Dunn’s biggest value as a connector piece wing is his passing. He has a great passing touch that wasn’t used much at Virginia in the last two seasons. At 0.8 assists per game, the numbers indicate that he has no value as a playmaker. However, an important nuance is that Virginia plays a guard-heavy slow-paced game that leads to a limited amount of field goals per game. Dunn was their finisher on plays and was asked mostly to move the ball, and not make plays for others.

There are important flashes that make it feasible that Dunn will fastly improve as a passer in the NBA. In the first play below, he keeps the inaccurate lob pass alive with a touch pass to the open man while being in the air. His tools as a playmaker are visible in the second play, where Dunn sees the incoming double and trusts his instincts to make the extra pass to the cutter in the middle. Quickly executing basic reads as these give him a solid base to work within a faster-paced NBA game with more ball movement.

Dunn’s strong upper body gives him the ability to make plays in the post. He’s measured at 213.6 pounds at the Combine, giving him room to continue to fill his frame at the next level. In the third play below, Dunn reacts to the incoming double around the mid-post area to immediately hit the cutter. The pass was a bit too fast, but that’s not an issue considering the lack of reps he has received as a passer.

Another value in his profile that improves a passer imminent is his composure. In the fourth play below, Dunn dribbles out of the double-team around the baseline to come up with the skip pass to elbow shooter. Answering on-ball pressure is the key element for ball handlers in creating advantages, and Dunn is showing flashes he can do it for a team in the long run.

Acknowledging that Dunn will mostly used as a ball-move early on, the last play below shows how he can thrive in that role as a does-it-all wing. After the side pass, Dunn sets a strong screen, following it up by going into offensive box-out mode to battle for a potential long rebound. Looking further than the lack of self-confidence at times, it should be hopeful for NBA decision-makers to see Dunn mastering all the must-haves to improve as an offensive piece in the NBA.

NBA Draft Projection

Dunn’s defense speaks for itself. Therefore, it had no added value to break that part of his game down. He faced skepticism throughout his two years at Virginia regarding his offense. Some were granted, but most of it was the numbers not reflecting the reality.

The above-mentioned areas will take time. Therefore it will cost Dunn his draft stock. With NBA front offices valuing pieces that can ensure they’ll keep their offensive rating at par, it’s not realistic to expect Dunn to end up as a lottery pick.

However, with his physical tools, the feel for the game and already mastering so many must-have skills to play as an NBA wing, Dunn could end up being one of the best players in this class.

His value as a cutter will bring him production. Once he’s more comfortable increasing his volume as a shooter, it’ll benefit his whole game in terms of his passing and making plays for himself and others.

Based on the above-mentioned areas and his offensive role in the future, I project Ryan Dunn to be a surefire first-round selection. It’s expected that he’ll be picked between 24 and 30, with the Milwaukee Bucks (#23), and the Washington Wizards (#26) being my favorite destinations for Dunn.