Riley Kugel Scouting Report
Riley Kugel is one of the top prospects among sophomores in the 2024 NBA Draft. If everything clicks, he has a chance to be a lottery pick in year two. What has to change to make it happen?
Player Profile
Riley Kugel is one of the top prospects among sophomores in the 2024 NBA Draft. If everything clicks, he could be a lottery pick in year two. What has to change? Find out more in this scouting report.
After Colin Castleton’s injury, the 6’5” scoring guard has shown he can carry the scoring load for the Gators as their number-one option. Despite generating draft buzz, Kugel decided to return to school for one more season, which was the best decision for him.
In terms of his scoring ability, Kugel is one of the best prospects of the 2024 NBA Draft class. However, there are multiple examples of prolific scorers struggling when they cannot bring more to the table. In Kugel’s case, he has to work on improving certain areas of his game to ensure the longest possible NBA career.
The first thing that pops out is the negative assist-to-turnover ratio (0.7) combined with an assist percentage of less than 10%. When looking into his film, the statistics match the eye test. Kugel has the habit to drive without a plan. Although he’s able to generate looks at the rim with his solid handles and footwork, Kugel looks to create his own looks instead of leveraging his ability to play as a paint touch to create space for others.
When going in-depth and looking at all his assists, I noticed that most of them are three-point makes on passes where Kugel hasn’t entered the interior. With his skillset in mind, that’s an early red flag, but looking at the minutes he played, it’s understandable that the lack of starting minutes hasn’t helped him on this end. The Gators mostly used Kugel as a scorer off the bench in a Sixth Man role instead of their starting guard. Kugel earning a starting role later on in the season has opened a door to continue working on learning to handle this role in year two.
As a pick-and-roll playmaker, Kugel has shown flashes of being able to play within that role in the long run. He has no problem executing basic reads, but the reps on this end at the college level haven’t been much. Looking back at his high school film, Kugel played almost solely as a scoring guard, leaving a lot to be desired. Involving his teammates more is an area of development, especially with how well he creates space by leveraging the threat of his scoring arsenal.
That’s what Kugel does best: opposing his will to the defense. On all three levels, Kugel has the craft to get to his spots with ease. His quick first step combined with his ability to change his pace on drives make him unpredictable. If the Gators intend to make Kugel their number-one option, involving teammates should naturally improve.
When looking at his defensive game, I noticed that Kugel is a locked-in defender when it comes to isolation. Overall, in the point-of-attack, his decision-making combined with his athletic tools give clear signs of him being a plus defender on that end down the stretch.
However, his off-ball defense is a whole other story. Kugel often struggles to fight through screens and is often caught rotating late. A part of it is the lack of experience, but another part is definitely the lack of feel for the game as a team defender. Overall, being in need of improvement as a team defender for a young player is usually not the biggest concern, but to fulfill the lottery promise, there’s no room to leave gaps in his development for Kugel. His dedication to the game and will to become better will play a factor in Kugel’s improvement on that end.
What’s a positive in his draft profile is that Kugel has a solid frame at 6’5”, and could end up guarding 1 to 3 at the next level. Especially if he continues to get stronger. With an evolving NBA game that’s taking an approach of switch-heavy schemes, Kugel has an opportunity to stay on an NBA floor with this ability, especially if his team defense improves.
In terms of his rebounding, Kugel has the strength to box out against bigger wings. Although the numbers indicate he’s not active on the glass, Kugel has proven to me that he’s a capable rebounder that can immediately be a threat to the opposing team on the open floor. In a fast-paced NBA game, that’s becoming a must in the upcoming draft seasons.
Draft Projection
Although I’m valuing production less than the average analyst, for Kugel I have no other option than to expect him to evolve into a high-volume scorer and leading ball handler. My biggest areas of development are the team defense and involving his teammates more.
If Kugel shows that he can improve in both areas and lead the Gators to the tournament as their number one option, I think he can end up as a lottery pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.
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