Pelle Larsson Scouting Report

Skilled connector pieces with the size to play multiple positions are what winning teams surround their stars with. Larsson fits the bill. But what else is there to like? Find out below.

Playing for the Swedish national team on top of his 133 games in college basketball, Larsson is one of the more experienced players in this class. At 23 years old, he had two years of professional basketball before transferring to Utah in 2020.

After a solid freshman year at 8.2 points and 46.3% shooting from three, Larsson transferred to Arizona. With Coach Tommy Lloyd knowing what he’d get, Larsson improved and earned a starting role in the second half of his junior year, whereafter he kept doing what he does best: improve his teammates.

At 6’5.25” without shoes, Larsson has the size to play the one, two, and three at the next level. His efficient but low-usage role made him one of the more unique players in college. With NBA teams competing for a title and looking to add such guys around their stars, his experience and NBA-ready game make him one of the safest bets in this class. This report is solely focusing on his NBA role.

Physical Profile

Combined with his size, Larsson has a good upper-body strength. At 212 pounds, he got much stronger during his three years at Arizona. Coach Lloyd valued strength and conditioning in Larsson’s development due to the multipositional character of his game. His quickness and footwork stand out on the offensive end when looking at his tools.

As a defender, Larsson is a good athlete who uses his upper-body strength well when contesting at the rim. With a decent vertical pop, the plus value comes from his strong upper-leg area, helping him to power up to contest shots. This combined with the quickness of his feet is a combination NBA teams won’t find often. Therefore, valuing his physical tools is one of the first conclusions drawn by front offices when evaluating his profile.

He’s a decent screen navigator but needs to improve on that end. His positioning and defensive awareness make up for most mistakes he makes when fighting through screens, making improvement feasible when entering the NBA.

Offense

At 42.6%, Larsson is one of the most efficient shooters among high majors this season. Another positive is that his attempts per game also increased— from 2.5 in both his sophomore and junior seasons to 3.0 in his senior year. What makes the shooting numbers more feasible is that Larsson is 45.2% on NBA-ranged threes, as shown by the chart below.

When looking at the mechanics, he shows a consistent jumper. With a 6’7.5” wingspan, Larsson makes up for the lack of length with a high-arcing release. He’s quick to set his feet and doesn’t need much time to power up for the shot. Another positive is that he’s moving toward the ball instead of waiting for it, as shown in the first play below.

Another area that will translate well to the NBA level is Larsson using jab steps and fakes to leverage the threat of his rim pressure to create space, with the third play below being an example.

For his NBA role, Larsson’s plays out of closeouts will be the most crucial. He has a rare combination of quick feet and great decision-making in how he’ll exploit the defender closing out on him. This form of offensive creativity will give an NBA franchise some untapped potential to exploit in upcoming years when Larsson earns more on-ball reps.

In the first play, he fakes the entry pass to attack the rim via the strong side. An important detail is that he’s looking to make the pass first, before the finish. In this play, the passing lane to the open corner was covered well by his opponent, forcing him to go for the contested lay-up instead.

The shot-fake followed by the strong pivot foot placement before relocating to the midrange in the second play is another signature move Larsson has shown often throughout his career.

In the last play, we see Larsson forcing the shot as the defense collapses on him to crowd the painted area. This made the kick-out pass more difficult, and thus going for his finish the play he had to have. When looking in more detail, we see Larsson immediately relocating to chase his potential miss. In terms of feel for the game, plays as these confirm that he’s one of the better prospects in this class on that end.

Taking into account that Larsson will continue to play as a connector piece in the NBA, his plays out of cuts are another indicator of his success at the next level. He’s an active cutter who stays in motion at all times, disrupting defenses. Another area where Larsson adds value to Arizona’s game is to make connective passes out of these cuts to find open teammates.

This is one of the reasons why he’s averaging 3.7 assists per game despite playing under 20% usage and not having a ball-heavy type of play. In the four plays below we’re diving deeper into the things Larsson has to improve at the next level. In the first play, Larsson shows his disappointment in missing the bunny near the rim, while his opponent collected the defensive rebound. On the left side of the court, a quick one-on-one sequence became possible, where Larsson had just entered the court to get back in transition.

In the third play, Larsson gets double-teamed after receiving the ball below the rim as a result of his backdoor cut. He made the correct pass, as the big man should have gone for the cut down low, but the lack of composure on the play is something to work on at the next level. An example of how his passes look like after cuts is shown in the second play below, where he shows signs of playing as a short-roll playmaker.

His potential out of short-rolls is being fed by how Arizona used his this season. We see fewer players being able to play inverted pick-and-rolls, while Larsson has both the handles to serve as the ball handler and the strength and screening to serve as a roll man. The four plays below show examples of both.

In the first two plays, Larsson serves as the roll man. One of his ways to either make the extra pass out of the roll or go for the finish himself is by using ghost screens, as shown in the first of the two. In the second play, Larsson tags the guard before the pop. However, at times his decision-making could be better, as hitting the corner shooter was the better outcome on this play with a chance for three points instead of the two points Larsson had to earn at the line.

With the ball in his hands, Larsson does well in executing basic reads. In the third play, we see him reject the incoming ball screen with the driving lane opening up in the middle. Despite the block near the rim, that’s a good decision by him to keep attacking the rim when he can. In the last play, his midrange jumper with the high-arcing release point comes to display.

When combining the pick-and-roll ball handler and roll man statistics per team, we see every team running pick-and-roll plays between 20-35% of their total plays. That proves the value of offensive versatility on this end from an NBA team’s connecting pieces—in Larsson’s case his ability to both serve as the roller and the ball handler.

As a passer, Larsson’s quick decision-making stands out. In an NBA game that is changing where teams are playing at a faster pace, connecting pieces become more crucial for their success. Larsson will offer the same for NBA teams. Even in on-ball sequences, we see Larsson not hold the ball in his hands for too long, which makes it feasible an NBA team will be able to keep their offensive rating at par with him on the court early on in his career.

This improves the odds of Larsson playing important minutes early on. In the four plays below, examples of his quick execution are put on display. What makes Larsson a good option is that he’s seeking to benefit from everyone off the court, with NBA teams using their centers less, at Arizona, we saw his teammate Ballo being the recipient of his playmaking often.

Something that Larsson got accustomed to was using his size to see over defenses. As a result, he tends to pass over defenses as well. That’s something that we see less in the NBA, but that is the European character of his game, where a more old-school type of high-entry passes is still a part of the game.

An example where young NBA players lose their amount of on-ball reps is when they force the issue. That’s not the case when Larsson is creating plays. When driving into the lane doesn’t work, he trusts his instincts and quick decision-making to come up with a solution, as shown in the fourth play below. That’s what makes Larsson’s profile valuable in this draft class. He uses his experience in both four years of college and two years as a pro to his advantage in these types of habits that improve his team’s guard play.

Defense

In Larsson’s defensive role, switching on the perimeter and guarding closeouts is one of the more crucial parts of his role. Throughout his three years at Arizona, his ability to slide his feet is what made him an effective defender on the perimeter.

Larsson has great footwork and together with his quick feet, he can stay attached to his assignment. While closing out, he shows a decent burst, but more importantly a good deceleration by using an aggressive pivot foot to control his opponent’s drive. In the five plays below we see an example of the above-mentioned, and more importantly, him forcing ball handlers to drive as much to the strong side as he can. This makes it easier to help defenses to rotate in case Larsson is getting blown by—this is more likely at the NBA level where he will face greater athletes among the guards and wings he’ll defend.

The second play in particular stood out. He shows a quick reactionary speed, forcing the ball handler to the baseline before the reach-in foul. The foul was avoidable, but the process of toughening the drive for the ball handler is a testimony to his aggressive style of play, which will be welcomed by many NBA teams.

However, at times his aggressive style of play is getting in his way. In 25% of his games played this year, Larsson had four or more personal fouls. One of the main areas of development is that Larsson tends to reach in too often, which makes him vulnerable to more experienced NBA players who’ll lure him to commit fouls.

At 2.6 personal fouls in 30 minutes per game, the number itself won’t show that Larsson has a risk in his profile regarding the above-mentioned. But when looking at his games, sequences as the first play are often a result of his fouls: avoidable but acceptable mistakes that are a result of his aggressive style of play. For NBA decision-makers this isn’t a risk they should hold against him.

On the contrary, it shows how much Larsson wants to play winning basketball. The other side of the coin is that he is very good at drawing offensive fouls. In the second play below, we see a moving screen with relocating feet, whereafter Larsson takes on the contact to draw the offensive foul on his opponents.

Another area that’ll suit him well is tagging rollers. In the third pick-and-roll sequence, Larsson tags the potential screener to switch onto the ball handler in the ICE. While dropping a bit before picking up his assignment, Larsson shows his positioning that helped him to force the midrange jumper.

An area of development for Larsson is that dropping is often leading to late closeouts against spot-up shooters. In the four plays below, Larsson shows that he has to work on improving his already good positioning, specifically when he’s dropping on defense when he’s off the ball.

In the first two plays, Arizona gives up the open three, where Larsson had to recover too much ground. On a better-spaced NBA floor that is a potential risk, NBA decision-makers will have to value in preparing his developmental plan for the next few years.

When he’s positioned better, we see Larsson show much better execution of his defensive reads. In the third play, he follows the play whereafter the quick second jump led to the heavy shot contest on the catch-and-shoot three.

In the last play, the defensive awareness is being put on display. At the moment the defense went over the screen, Larsson already rotated to the midrange level to potentially close out on the spot-up shooter who on his part moved from the elbow to the middle. In terms of his execution, Larsson gambling on the shot wasn’t the best outcome. An NBA team will value awareness and instincts but should be more critical of which opponents they are willing to give open threes to.

As an off-ball defender, we see Larsson taking on the role of the team’s leader in coaching his teammates in rotations. As shown in the first play below, Larsson becomes the interior defender and helps his teammate to stick to his assignment.

Overall, when defending against cutters, Larsson relies on his mobility and is in continuous motion trying to respond to opponents running motion-based offenses against them. For the NBA that’s a good sign, especially combining Larsson’s habit of locating missed rotations to try and clean it up himself, as shown in the second play below.

Something that’ll help him in his multi-positional role is his toughness. In the BLOB on the last play below, Larsson is in a mismatch but uses his physicality to make the inbound pass a tough one, leading to the deflection on the pass and a transition opportunity instead.

NBA Draft Projection

Larsson will be 23 years old on draft night. For teams looking to compete for a championship, he fits the bill of the multi-positional ball handler who plays in a downscaled role. Most teams want to complement their high-usage stars with a do-it-all wing or guard who plays as the connecting part that improves the other four players on the court.

That’s Larsson’s role at Arizona. And when considering his NBA-ready game combined with his excellent footwork and quick feet, there will likely be a few top NBA teams wanting to draft him with their pick in the latter stages of the first round.

For metric-relying teams who want to support the above-mentioned pros and cons of the underlying numbers, the query below shows how well a season Larsson had while playing in a low-usage and well-regarded role.

To conclude the scouting report, I project Pelle Larsson to be a late first-round pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, with teams the New York Knicks (picks 24 and 25) and Boston Celtics (pick 30) being the two best teams for him in terms of fit.