Paul McNeil Jr. Scouting Report

From a North Carolina high school superstar to an underwhelming freshman season. Nonetheless, Paul McNeil, Jr. is one of the better guards in this class. Here's all you must know about his NBA future:

Paul McNeil Jr. (#2) is set for a breakout sophomore season in the ACC

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Paul McNeil, Jr. (#2, NC State): Sophomore, 6'5"

Shooting Guard — Born: Apr 19, 2006 (19 years old)

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Introduction

Opportunity to play is a vital factor in today’s draft evaluation. I know that NBA front offices value high school film and evaluation, and the forms for their decision to start collecting intel early. Paul McNeil, Jr. is one of those guys. He was a superstar in the North Carolina grassroots scene, but it hasn’t translated to consistent minutes as a freshman at NC State.

At 4.2 points in less than nine minutes per game, the numbers are negligible. However, he has shown serious potential in the scarce minutes he played. The now-sophomore has a vital skill in shooting prowess and expands his game from there. That translates to the NBA. This scouting report emphasizes his pro potential and realistic role.

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Physical Profile

At 6-foot-5, McNeil, Jr. has a long and wiry build. He has excellent length for a guard with a wingspan that should measure out close to seven feet at the Combine. Despite his slim frame, McNeil, Jr. has excellent core strength and improving footwork, which form the base for his scoring prowess. He’s in balance constantly, but learns how to absorb contact against stronger players. That’s his learning curve for the next few years.

McNeil, Jr. has a quick first step and good lateral quickness. On top of his shooting gravity, he’ll earn more reps to find consistent paint touches. That’s his value physically. However, he’s not strong enough to consistently play against stronger and better athletes. Therefore, filling his frame is a must. He’s listed at 180 pounds and should continue to bulk up to 200 pounds in the next few years.

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Offense

Paul McNeil Jr.’s shot chart from his freshman season, as per CBBAnalytics.

Closeout scoring and self-creation

McNeil, Jr. is a born shooter off the dribble. He’s quick and fast and brings a serious threat to get downhill. That’s valuable considering his shooting gravity. Therefore, his complete package of scoring on two levels will be the base for his incoming double-digit scoring season. However, there are a few areas of development. McNeil, Jr. is a gifted midrange shooter and scorer, but he settles for shots often. That’s mostly due to his lack of handling and absorbing contact around the basket. For NBA scouts, that’s partially a sign of his need to get stronger, but also shot selection, which is fixable to a certain degree.

The first play shows an example. He shows an excellent jump stop and attacks his defender’s feet to create the driving lane. With a good burst, he gets deep inside the paint, but in his dribble, the cautious approach to attack the defender’s chest was visible. The live-ball turnover is no issue and is a part of his learning curve. The fundamentals are the plus value in McNeil, Jr.’s profile. He shows tremendous footwork with his creativity in his gathers. He’s pivoting out wide, knowing he can blow by opponents with his burst and speed. The second play shows an example of how seamlessly he creates space off the dribble.

By attacking a defender’s footwork, McNeil, Jr. recognizes how he can get the best angles to dribble, pass, or shoot from. The third play shows him using a quick jab to create space on the weak side corner, followed up by a solid step-back jumper. The other factor is McNeil, Jr., playing with creativity and not running a script. He’s not attacking the baseline, seeing the help-side defender ready to take him on. Instead, he uses his long legs to pivot out wide with his left and create the driving angle on the strong side. The midrange jumper made it difficult, but that’s the area of development; McNeil, Jr. must show more consistent paint touches and rim attempts in his sophomore season.

Screen-offs

Running and shooting off screens isn’t a favorable play type for most prospects. That’s because NBA teams have to run sets and plays to create these scoring opportunities, where the willingness of a team to consistently do that is a legitimate question mark. Regardless, for prospects with high shooting prowess and gravity, it’s a must-have to add to the evaluation.

The issue with McNeil, Jr. is the lack of active and purposeful cutting. He’s not making the right off-ball reads to get himself to his sweet spots with space around him. That’s the other side of the coin for on-ball dominant scorers in a high school setting; they don’t get used to playing away from the ball often. That’s one of the reasons why he didn’t get consistent playing minutes at NC State this past season. The first play shows slow movement where he traps himself at the elbow, eventually leading to a turnover.

In the second possession, McNeil, Jr. is much better at recognizing motion and switching around him. That led to him popping to the elbow and immediately launching his three. The hedge on the ball screen in the third play led to a similar outcome. Simple execution, but vital to move and create space with cuts and relocate to a passer’s angle. McNeil, Jr. will show improvement on that end in his sophomore season.

Catch-and-shoot

McNeil, Jr. has the best jumper in the ACC. His process is consistent and scalable to grow into a volume shooter in the NBA. To support a team’s offensive rating, that’s his value in combination with a reduced role. The process of pivoting before the catch and then using that to elevate his footwork in setting his feet wide or making the decision to pass or dribble makes him such a dangerous shooter. On top of that, his release is high, and with his size and length, that’s another value riser in his profile.

The first play shows an example of him pivoting out far left at the elbow to either clear the driving lane on the weak side or to execute the space to an extra wide pivot created with his jumper. We see a similar outcome in the second possession, where he’s pivoting out wide with his right. That’s how McNeil. Jr. creates extra space on his jumpers. The three other possessions in the clips below show consistency in his pivot foot being so strong. Footwork and skill are the basis for success in the NBA. For McNeil, Jr., it’s imminent that his 35.6% on less than two attempts per game will improve in his sophomore season.