Nikos Rogkavopoulos Scouting Report
With shooting being one of the most important aspects of today's NBA, 2001-born Nikos Rogkavopoulos is one of the best prospects in this class. But will it be enough to get drafted?
Player Profile
With shooting being one of the most important aspects of today's NBA, showing versatility on that end increases the chance of a prospect eventually sticking in the NBA. That's what 2001-born Nikos Rogkavopoulos is offering.
After attending the Jordan Brand Classic as a 16-year-old, he remained on NBA radars. However, with a lack of playing minutes and perspective at his youth team, AEK Athens, Rogkavopoulos found himself in a tough situation as he decided to bet on himself by moving to a smaller club.
In the last two seasons, Rogkavopoulos has shown flashes of being able to play a role as a wing-defending shooter with the ability to carry the team's scoring load. As a result, he won the Turkish League's 'Best Young Player' award before moving stateside to prepare for the draft.
At 6'8", Rogkavopoulos has the ideal size for the three-spot. His laser-quick release is his unique selling point. Whether it comes off the catch or when creating his own shot, he's forcing defenders to close out on him more.
Compared to his film from a few years ago, Rogkavopoulos added the ability to leverage his pull-up threat to create separation. He uses his broad shoulders and footwork he improved at attacking closeouts more effectively. However, executing his reads in these situations is something that's still in need of development.
Despite the strong frame, Rogkavopoulos struggles to finish at the rim consistently: 47% on 144 attempts this season. A part of the reason is the more crowded paint in European basketball and the lack of a three-second rule they do have in the NBA. In this stage of his career, it's visible that Rogkavopoulos' lack of opportunity at AEK Athens in his younger years cost him valuable developmental time, something NBA decision-makers have to include in their evaluation.
On the defensive end, Rogkavopoulos still needs to work on his ability to fight through screens. When studying his film, I noticed that he doesn't make the right decisions as a pick-and-roll defender, and he dies on screens often, leading to opponents targeting him on the defensive end, which his team mitigated by playing a more switch-heavy scheme using Rogkavopoulos primarily as the four.
As a result, we saw him struggle against the more powerful forwards in the post. Surprisingly, Rogkavopoulos did well on most occasions contesting at the rim without fouling; he averaged less than two fouls per game in thirty-two minutes.
Regarding his potential to stay on an NBA floor, Rogkavopoulos shows excellent rebounding at his position. Whether it comes from using his strength in box-outs, or his ability to be at the right spots on both ends of the floor, his rebounding will translate well at the NBA level.
What excites me more when watching his film is the potential to scale his game up and down. Playing for a team that battles to avoid relegation in Turkey, his coach put the ball in his hands to win them games. However, at moments when the shot didn't fall, he anticipated very well by serving more as a ball-mover and off-ball screener.
Anticipating his role as a wing-defending shooter in the NBA, Rogkavopoulos fits best in a high-motion and ball-movement-focused style.
NBA Draft Projection
Rogkavopoulos will turn 22 shortly after the draft. His laser-quick release as a reliable high-volume three-point shooter will have NBA decision-makers grueling. But, his need for development on the defensive end will devaluate his draft stock.
The feasibility of his shooting touch is backed by his free-throw shooting, averaging 86.5% on 104 attempts in Turkey this past season. Combined with his excellent positional size and rebounding, Rogkavopoulos could play a role as a shooter off the bench on day one.
His potential to stick in the NBA will depend on his ability to improve his touch around the rim and get stronger to take full advantage of his skills as an off-ball screener and switchable defender.
I expect Rogkavopoulos to end up as an undrafted free agent. While reportedly having multiple Euroleague offers in his pocket, he would likely prefer to remain flexible, ensuring the best odds to end up on the team with the best perspective for him.