Nate Santos Scouting Report
As a shooting specialist, Nate Santos brings a vital skill to the NBA. But he has much more to offer. Here's why he deserves an NBA roster spot while already being on many radars:
Nate Santos (#2, Dayton): Senior, 6'6.25"
Small Forward/Power Forward — Born: Nov 9, 2001 (23 years old)
Introduction
With back-to-back All-A-10 honors, Santos was one of the best wings at the mid-major level. Shooting is the main specialty, with an identical 41.8% in his junior and senior campaigns at Dayton. On top of that, Santos’s role as a connecting piece made it easier for him to scale his role up and average double-digit scoring numbers in his two seasons as a Flyer.
This earned him a call-up to the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament, where his standout performance got him a call-up to the G League Elite Camp. The path of a standout summer, combined with a well-regarded role as a top-shooting wing defender, puts Santos in clear NBA radars. How he’ll carve out a role at the next level is the emphasis of this scouting report.
Physical Profile
At 6’6.25” in shoes, Santos offers the needed positional size for a shooting specialist. He has average shoulders but a well-filled frame at 216 pounds. Combined with his upper-leg strength, Santos’s well-filled chest helps him to shift from craft to physicality when needed. He’s a good athlete laterally, but an average one in terms of explosiveness.
Santos’ main physical trait is his good length, as he has a 6’9.5” wingspan. On top of that, he has fluid hips and understands angles well. Throughout the years, Santos learned how to leverage his physical advantage, which forms the base to make defenders focus less on his three-point shooting. Vertically, Santos is average, but shows promise to switch and serve as a help-side defender.
Defense
Hand-offs
At 2.5 personal fouls per game, Santos is a consistent factor in playing with intensity and toughness while doing a decent job of staying out of foul trouble. His screen navigation to counter teams running actions via handoffs will be one of his well-regarded tasks in the NBA. Teams often want to switch their wings to throw size and speed while countering opposing secondary creators utilizing handoffs. In the first possession below, Santos does well to actively use his right arm to tag early and create a cushion to throw himself between the screener and the ball handler. Hereafter, Santos did well by denying physicality from the scorer, decently keeping his balance. However, he was lured into contacting the arms too much before getting called for the foul.
In the second possession, Santos was too busy pushing off the elbow screener. Hereafter, it cleared the entire weak side toward the rim. Santos’s positioning to focus on potentially dodging the screen in the ICE was the wrong decision, as the angle on the weak side was the ball handler’s clear target. The third play shows why defending against handoffs is Santos’s strength on defense. He’s tough and physical and doesn’t allow an easy handoff opportunity. Therefore, the ball handler got the ball at a much tougher angle. Hereafter, Santos did well by closing the driving lane by using his length before recognizing the deep three, which he followed up with a good shot contest.
Closeouts
Santos stands out with his footwork and early physicality to keep his assignment in front of him. He doesn’t have great lateral quickness, but does well by using his size and frame to bother scorers early and make them beat him off the dribble. The other side of the coin is that it makes Santos more reactive to what ball handlers are trying to accomplish. That’s where NBA scouts have doubts, as he allows many paint touches. A part of the closeout defense is to limit penetration into the paint and force ball handlers to adjust earlier in the phase.
With decent hip fluidity, Santos’s last step on the elbow had him react well to the ball handler switching sides. On top of that, he uses his arms early in the process to bother the ball handler, trying to find angles. Despite the toughness, the reactivity on Santos’ end makes it challenging for him to cleanly deter shots away at the rim. By playing too safe, he’s making it easier for scorers to attack him in the chest. The first two plays below show a similar outcome. In the third play below, Santos looks more dialed in before giving the angle away on the spin move after the jump stop around the midpost.
Regardless, the level of toughness is where he can adjust in the NBA. The positive in Santos’s all-around closeout defense is that he sticks to his opponents effectively and doesn’t get beaten off the dribble often. That’s the value NBA scouts look for in shooting-heavy wings and how they contribute to a team’s defensive rating.
Catch-and-shoot
Santos uses his length well to bother spot-up shooters. That’s a positive in his defensive profile. However, he’s often positioning himself too deep inside the paint. That’s inviting opponents to make kickout passes. On top of that, Santos often overhelps, where he hands ball handlers a bailout option with kickout passes. This continued during the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament, which is the major area of development in his profile.
In the first play below, Santos looks to rotate to respond to the ball reversal in the corner. However, the habit of dropping his coverage is well seen in this example. We see a side pass from the corner to the elbow, but Santos’s reactiveness led to him dropping back rather than closing out. As a result, he was too far away to get in the shooter’s face on time. The positive is that Santos has a good combination of footwork and a decent last step. He doesn’t use long strides, but instead focuses on keeping his balance and betting on his length to help him cover some more inches while forcing shooters to shoot over the top. The second play below shows an example.
In the third possession, the overhelping is visible. While the angles in the middle were closed, Santos decided to bother the forward with his help defense. But the other side of the coin here is that he’s always giving away a bailout option, which was the above-the-break shooter. Despite showing a second of hesitation, we saw a good shot contest by Santos.
Pick-and-roll
With good screen navigation, Santos has a good base to grow as a pick-and-roll defender. But the moral of the story here is that he’s too reactive to what ball handlers try to accomplish against him. Regardless, the footwork is decent, and Santos shows he can slide his feet. That makes it easier for him to play in the secondary or initiate against ball handlers while avoiding screens immediately.
In the first play below, Santos does well to close the driving lane, as he sees the drag screen being placed while moving back in transition. That helped him to close angles far in the interior and thus deflect the ball and respond with a transition play of his own. Most of his 0.4 steals per game came when Santos played the driving and passing lanes while closing angles. In the second possession, Santos makes the mistake of biting on the ghost screen. When opponents drag, the awareness in rotations takes a step back. One example doesn’t tell the entire story, but Santos has shown a few of these sequences at Dayton.
Good things happen when Santos pivots strongly. In the third play below, Santos had a good tag and was ready to either avoid the screen and pick the ball handler up in the middle or slide his feet when the screen was rejected. The latter happened, but Santos didn’t follow the scorer; he responded by playing the interior angles. That helped him get back in front of his assignment despite the blow-by. These details matter for NBA scouts, as they see a more feasible case for Santos to improve in the next few years.
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Offense
Catch-and-shoot
Santos’ main trait for NBA scouts is his versatility as a shooter, both off the catch, while he’s comfortable shooting after one or two dribbles. That makes it feasible that NBA coaches would want him to find some shots out of handoff actions. At 41.8% from three in back-to-back seasons, Santos increased his volume to five attempts per game. The numbers are a result of his consistent and smooth shooting process. However, the only area of development is when Santos rushes his shots.
His main skill is how quickly he sets his feet. But when he’s setting his feet while placing the ball and powering up, he could get out of balance. The first play shows an example of bad body positioning when rushing the transition three. In these sequences, NBA scouts would like to see Santos attack the closeout instead. The positive is how smoothly Santos rises up for his shot. With good length, he often uses jump stops while showing a decently high-arcing release. The second play shows an example. NBA teams seek versatile shooters who can show quick execution after one dribble. The jump stop is an effective weapon for catch-and-shoot options to expand their shooting versatility.
For the NBA, Santos will continue using these jump-stop shots. That’s where he’s most comfortable. The third and fourth plays below show how quickly he executes while showing a smooth shot process.
Screen-offs
As a good screen navigator, Santos shows a much-wanted skill of quickly shooting when coming off screens. He’s mostly using pindowns and staggered screens to reward his active cutting with good shooting angles. He focuses on both elbows as his sweet spots. On top of that, Santos’ shooting leverage will keep defenders on their heels when his team runs flair screens and other actions to free Santos up with his cuts. He’s often trying to deceive defenders while focusing on angles inside the arc for his play-finishing. For the NBA, his shooting off screens is a vital weapon to support a team’s offensive versatility and rating.
In the first play below, Santos does well to use the screen to get to the elbow. He does well not to rush his shot, as he contemplated attacking the closeout. However, the openness led to the shot instead. In the second play, Santos does well to recognize the elbow opening up. Hereafter, he shows a smooth hip by immediately planting his last step and positioning his body at 180 degrees before getting the shot off. The area of concern for the next level is the lack of burst. Santos struggles to generate paint touches. So when he’s coming off screens while attacking closeouts, he’s settling for midrange shots. The third play shows an example. That’s an area NBA coaches should prioritize when preparing their developmental plan.
Catch-and-drive
With limited creativity in creating shots inside the lane, NBA scouts want to find other paths to increase the shooting leverage in Santos’s profile. With a lack of burst and rim pressure, this effect trickles down, with Santos effectively finishing 50% of his rim attempts. This makes it less feasible that NBA teams can bank on his shooting gravity. The reasoning for a limited scoring package is that his shooting has been the main trait of his entire career. Regardless, Santos shows a decent understanding of angles and compensates for his lack of speed with craft and a change of pace. He’s not creative, but he uses jab steps to create driving angles.
He’s also good at using ball placement as his deceiving weapon. At about four attempts per game, Santos shows he’s a great foul-drawer despite a lack of paint touches. The first play shows how he’s using his length and ball placement to deceive defenders while moving from east to west. The wide-open baseline had the defense hedge, and made Santos earn the two points from the line. The second play shows a lack of burst, but a well-timed pushoff to create an angle to attack the other side after the gather in the midrange. Santos shows decent hips and a good last step around the basket. Despite not being fully balanced, he showed a soft touch around the rim. But the other side of the coin is Santos settling for midrangers more often than not. The third play shows an example. The lack of composure to make the extra pass is the main area of development in Santos’ creation out of closeouts.
Passing, ball-moving, and playmaking
At a career-average of 1.0 assists and a neutral assist-to-turnover ratio, the numbers show a neutral impact. His role at Dayton mainly relied on his shooting. However, potential assists have not been fully taken advantage of in his closeout plays, as mentioned above. But the lack of composure and playmaking feel doesn’t give Santos long-term potential as a passer. Regardless, NBA teams run motion-based offenses where the ball keeps moving. At the minimum, Santos can develop into a good-ball mover who uses his active cutting to immediately pass out of angles he creates with his movement. Running sets or making plays off the dribble is not his role, nor his strength.
Therefore, the numbers aren’t relevant, as NBA scouts should not seek a playmaker in Santos. The other side of the coin is that with a career turnover rate of 11.7%, Santos shows he takes good care of the ball. The offensive rating doesn’t see harm from his ball-moving. The first play below is an easy execution of the lob pass in transition. The understanding of drawing the defender with a 50% chance of meeting the play-finisher was good. He lured the defender before throwing the ball up, and that’s the basic understanding he shows well.
In the second possession, Santos doesn’t see a good driving angle and keeps the ball moving. That’s what NBA teams want him to do. Regardless, he shows a low form of court vision in the third play below. Santos grabs the offensive board and uses the jump-stop to lure defenders in. That helps him execute his kick-out pass much better. He’s not rushing his decisions, which is a positive. In the last play, Santos shows the quickness of decision-making as he immediately passed out of the help defender who tried to poke the ball after his dribble penetration. I expect Santos to have no issues adjusting to his role as a ball-mover at the next level.
NBA Draft Projection
Based on the strengths and areas of development mentioned in this scouting report, I project Nate Santos to find an NBA roster spot with his shooting gravity and positional and defensive versatility as the main selling points. He’s not growing into a bigger role and will develop to make the most of his shooting gravity in the NBA. His role is comparable to Isaiah Joe, where Santos has the much-wanted positional size and a good frame to add.
I don’t think Nate Santos gets drafted, but he should be a priority for teams in the early two-way contract market among undrafted free agents.