Mark Armstrong Scouting Report

Having a floor general for the majority of the game helps stabilize an offense. That's what the Suns for example needed in the playoffs. Armstrong fits the bill. What else stands out? Find out below.

With his feel for the game and quickness, Armstrong impacted Villanova’s offense in a supportive role. While ending his freshman campaign in the Big East All-Freshman Team, he was expected to take on a bigger role as a sophomore. While strengthening his starting role, Armstrong’s value on the court as a connecting guard didn’t stand out due to Villanova's offensive struggles throughout the season.

While putting up 8.4 points per game on 41.7% shooting, the numbers don’t tell the whole story. Especially considering that the values of his NBA profile aren’t to be found in production. That’s the emphasis of this scouting report while focusing on his NBA role and which parts of his game will translate at the next level.

Physical Profile

At 6’1.25” in socks, Armstrong is a great athlete with incredibly light feet. That combined with his great burst, quickness, and speed will benefit an NBA offense that wants to play at a higher pace. The unique selling point compared to his peers is his ability to process the game very well while playing with a head of steam.

His verticality is another value-riser of his physical profile, as he put up a 40-inch vertical jump at the G League Elite Camp. At 6’4.25”, he has decent length but it limits him in guarding multiple positions, as his main focus will be to guard the one.

In a switch-heavy NBA game, Armstrong would benefit from filling his frame to absorb physical contact much better. However, due to his game relying on his physical tools, it’s risky for NBA teams to let him bulk up. Therefore, opponents trying to exploit his slim frame at 170 pounds is the other side of the coin in terms of the value of his physical profile in the long run.

Offense

The main trait an NBA team buys in Armstrong’s profile is his excellent connective passing. Villanova played at a low pace, making the nuance for the above-mentioned important. At 2.4 assists per game, the numbers don’t reflect the reality as the Wildcats offense didn’t stand out with their ball movement.

The combination of his quickness rim pressure and decision-making is what most NBA teams look for. Especially the ones with usage-heavy wings. At 22.8% usage, Armstrong was forced to be a larger part of his team’s offense due to a lack of depth among their guards. However, in his passing game, Armstrong played his natural game as a distributor and quick decision-maker.

In the first play below, we see him lulling the defense to sleep before attacking his man off the dribble to feed the rolling big man with the timely drop-off pass. In the NBA, exploiting defenses as the pick-and-roll ball handler won’t be asked much early on in his career. Regardless, it shows a must-have in his game to potentially increase his role further down the line.

The second, third, and fourth plays are what makes his passing more effective for NBA teams. Despite his team’s slow pace, Armstrong stands out by increasing the speed of it with ball movement. It’s important to see him executing reads instead of just moving the ball around with side passes. In the second and third plays below, we see Villanova use their post-up-heavy game to find perimeter options. Armstrong’s quick passes off the catch are what makes his nature as a connective passer visible, rather than him being a full-time playmaker.

In the fourth play below, Armstrong needs a few seconds more to execute his reads to a packed paint. His not bailing out the defense with the entry pass with two help defenders in the middle is a good decision on his part. Therefore, he had to dribble-penetrate himself to lure the defense into the painted area.

On an NBA floor, Armstrong will look to generate paint touches to collapse defenses. This will either be followed up with him finishing near the rim, or to keep the ball moving and finding outside shooters. His great burst and quickness allow him to beat opponents off the dribble, with and without a screen.

The switch-heavy game turns his lack of size into a weapon, especially when considering his quick decision-making off the dribble. The value in his profile is not his speed itself, but his adding his feel for the game and timely execution to complete the package.

At 60.0% near the rim, that’s a good number for Armstrong. Considering his slim frame not being ideal for absorbing contact against stronger players, he’s reliant on his craft when creating his offense. An NBA team will ask him to mainly shoot and attack closeouts due to the connective nature of his role.

In the first play below, Armstrong has no passing options when he’s absorbing the contact near the free-throw line. Therefore, going for the tough layup was the only option. The finish was a bit too strong. An area where NBA decision-makers need to focus on in his rim-finishing is his level of touch after taking on the contact.

Generally, Armstrong shows great touch around the rim, and combined with his craft, it’s likely that his numbers will remain at the same level on a better-spaced NBA floor. However, due to the NBA’s physical nature, this first play below is an example of what can go wrong against better athletes.

In the second play, Armstrong shows he’s much more effective when attacking the rim via the elbows. His composure leads to him looking for ways to attack the weak side, especially against guards struggling to close out timely or not showing consistent defensive footwork.

As a result, he may not always find his looks, forcing him to take tough midrange jumpers. In the third and fourth play, we see Armstrong settling for jumpers after he’s not able to find a good look near the rim. In terms of maintaining a team’s offensive rating, that’s an area of risk, where his back-to-back single-digit scoring seasons tell a part of the story.

At 28.2% on 2.5 three-pointers per game, Armstrong is a below-average shooter in terms of numbers. At an open-three rate of 17%, the Wildcats rank outside of the top 300, which partially explains the numbers. However, when looking at his mechanics, it’s likely the numbers will improve as he’ll get more open looks in the NBA.

Armstrong is fluid in setting his feet before the jumper, which is the most crucial part of becoming a better shooter. He’s much more comfortable shooting in motion than from a pure standstill. In the second play below, Armstrong looked the most comfortable among all four attempts. The numbers support him preferring the left elbow, where he’s converting 40.7% of his threes.

On the contrary, his shooting from the right side of the field looks to make Armstrong uncomfortable, as shown in the first play below, where the release looked forced rather than natural. That is surprising due to seeing how well he sets his feet while coming off movement.

With NBA teams valuing motion-based offenses, it’s crucial to be an average shooter at worst as a connective piece. Armstrong shows that he can place a good last step in transition as well. His offensive footwork is decent but becomes better when he’s asked to shoot rather than create. Despite below-average length, he shows a high release point in the third and fourth plays below. Those are two examples showing how consistent his jumper is whether it’s an open look (third play) or a contested one (fourth play).

Although it’s unlikely Armstrong will have the ball in his hands if the production doesn’t improve, it’s important to add his shot-creating ability to determine long-term potential. Armstrong has decent handles, where he’s standing out in dribbling out of various pick-and-roll coverages or using his craft and deceleration to create advantages.

Due to a lack of strength, Armstrong compensates for this by showing incredible change of pace. His signature move is shown in the first play below, being that he decelerates, selling the defenses the jab step before using his burst and quick first step to blow by opponents. That combined with his touch at the rim he’s a threat to opposing teams in putting their big men to foul trouble.

At almost two free throws per game, that’s a good number considering Armstrong uses his paint touches more to pass out of rather than looking for the contact in his near-the-rim finishes. In the third play, he shows his two-handed dribbling, being a threat to go east to west or snake in pick-and-roll sets. In terms of offensive creativity, his game is limited to the above-mentioned, but considering the connective nature of his game, that’ll be less asked for by NBA teams.

An area of development remains Armstrong bailing out defenses with tough midrange jumpers. Not making the extra pass will hurt an NBA team’s offensive rating, as most analytics-heavy franchises won’t trust every player to allow midrange jumpers in bunches. Therefore, Armstrong must remain within the boundaries of exploiting his quickness and bursting with near-the-rim finishes or setting others up with his connective passing.

Defense

As a pick-and-roll defender, Armstrong will have to show the same toughness and fire with which he played at Villanova. He’s a below-average screen navigator who lacks the strength to fight through screens consistently. This will continue at the next level considering the better-calibre athletes he’ll face.

However, this doesn’t stop Armstrong from playing hard in terms of hounding his assignment with contact. He picks up nearly two fouls in 25 minutes per game, which is a tad too much, with his aggressiveness leading to foul calls.

In the second play below, Armstrong is taking on the challenge with less than 30 seconds left and down two points. His ability to tag the screener was followed up by his burst and quickness after his assignment got the separation he wanted is a testimony to his mindset. Despite his lack of length, Armstrong gets the block using his great vertical jump to put his toughness into action.

The risk with Armstrong on the floor is that opponents will target him in switches to put taller guards and wings on him. In the third play, Armstrong does well to tag the screener to find his assignment but fails to contest the shot due to the distance and being late with his jump.

In the first and fourth play, we see Armstrong leading to the Villanova defense collapsing as he gets stuck in screens. NBA teams are the most vulnerable in games when they show consistent failed attempts in screen navigation. This will be followed up with a team spamming the same play until adjustments are made. Despite the deflection on the fourth play, Armstrong’s pick-and-roll defense is subpar, leading him to have to play hard to compensate for his below-average screen navigation as much as he can.

We see similar struggles when Armstrong has to fight through a pindown or staggered screen. Especially during conference play, opponents targeted Armstrong with off-ball screens, finding favorable shooters on the perimeter.

The Villanova defense was ranked outside the top 300 in the quality of three-point looks given away to opponents. That’s not totally on Armstrong, but he has his fair share in it. In the first play below, Armstrong gets stuck in the pindown when he should have seen it coming from further away. In the intensity of the defense, those types of errors are no red flags by any means, as young prospects need reps of high-level basketball to increase their defensive awareness of these types of plays.

In the second play below, Armstrong struggles to stick to his ball handler after the double-staggered screens, opening up a driving lane in the middle. On an NBA floor, teams will counter these moves with early rotations where Armstrong should roam to the corner and let bigger bodies handle the interior. This didn’t happen. Therefore NBA decision-makers must add certain drills to his workouts, as the effectiveness of Armstrong as a defender is heavily reliant on his screen navigation.

A value-riser in Armstrong’s profile is his tremendous defensive footwork. His attention to detail as a closeout defender shows that his coaches earlier in his life taught him well. He’s using a traditional technique where he keeps his legs close to each other. This is often seen in physically gifted guards who leverage their burst and quickness well.

In the first play, Armstrong recognizes his team’s defense collapsing while the action is happening on the strong side. This led to good defensive instincts to rotate to the elbow, maintaining a fair distance to both his original assignment and to the player he’s switching to. Using his legs close to each other, he’s showing his light feet as he pivots well to the spot where he wants to close out.

When evaluating closeouts, it’s crucial to consider where he’s positioned compared to his assignment. Between 135 and 225 degrees is the most effective way, with the quickness of the player deciding how close it should be to 180 degrees. Armstrong does well to limit the passing lane as much as he can, trusting his vertical jump to contest the shot. Despite the make, that’s a very good defensive play on his part, showing NBA decision-makers that closing out is what he can do for them without an issue.

In the second play, he again shows quick feet and multiple pivot feet in this closeout, this time taking on the challenge of staying in front of his assignment. He absorbed the contact well, forcing the ball handler to the tough midrange jumper.

The area between very good and simply elite compared to his peers is his ability to not bite on any fakes opponents throw at him. In the third play, Armstrong does well in showing his focus and high basketball IQ as a defender in the way he doesn’t lose his balance on the jab step, spin-move, and fake, leading to the tough midrange jumper. With traditional draft coverage pin-pointing size, Armstrong shows he can defend effectively when he’s put in a position to use his decision-making and quickness. The sample applies when shooters settle for pull-up threes, as shown in the last play below.

When Armstrong is defending against spot-up shooters, he’s showing another value-riser of his profile. The most crucial part that NBA decision-makers have to pay attention to is mastering the basics to effectively contest shots. Whether they go in or not, he’s consistently contesting shots while he’s at 180 degrees in front of his opponent.

His lack of size and length hurt him in contesting vertically, as he’s too reliant on his jump to defend against taller players. That’s a physical deficiency he’s compensating with his consistent positioning. His level of execution on this end is not seen much with college sophomores. This is an indication of his dedication to the game and basketball IQ, making him an option to adapt quickly to a faster-paced NBA game with much more complicated sets being run.

Whether it’s as an off-ball defender in the first play, or when he’s coming off a screen and rotation in the second, Armstrong’s fluid hips and quickness help him to contest hard against spot-up shooters. When considering teams targeting him in pick-and-roll actions, he can make up for the defensive rating a team is giving up with his defense against spot-up shooters.

NBA Draft Projection

Undersized guards need to be either way above-average shooters or exceptional defenders to be long-term plus values. Generally, even with one of the two above-mentioned areas being present, their total package of decision-making as defenders is what becomes more important after a few years in the league.

In Armstrong’s case, he’s a below-average shooter who doesn’t project to put up good numbers right away. His offensive role is limited to connective passing and making plays out of closeouts. That’s fine as long as the team’s built around high-usage wings taking on the production, with teams such as the Phoenix Suns.

As a defender, his screen navigation will lead to a team’s defensive rating being hurt with him on the floor. However, an NBA decision-maker will gladly bet on his high level of defensive footwork and positioning.

Despite entering the draft as a sophomore, Armstrong’s potential is mainly on the defensive side of the ball, where his value lies in exploiting his feel for the game and working on his screen navigation. This leads to him being challenged to be an average piece on offense to stick in the NBA.

Armstrong keeps his name in the draft and thus won’t return to school. Considering the above-mentioned and other areas mentioned in the scouting report. I project Armstrong to be undrafted this summer, with it being likely a team looking for depth among their guards will sign him to a two-way contract, hoping to improve his jumper via their G League affiliate.