Mantas Rubštavičius Scouting Report
Knowing how to play combined with efficient production is a key to a successful pro career. And that summarizes the 21-year-old Lithuanian's game. Is it enough to get drafted? Find out more below.
After being selected in the All-Tournament during the 2022 FIBA U20 European Championship, Rubštavičius decided to move to the NBL as a part of their Next Stars program.
A difference with other Europeans taking this route is that Rubštavičius already played many minutes at the highest level, making it more likely that he would adapt early on to the NBL.
And that’s precisely what happened. With 9.5 points per game while shooting 61% from the field, Rubštavičius is catching the attention of NBA scouts as he brought his successful play to the other side of the world.
Intangibles such as adapting quickly to a new environment are something NBA decision-makers will consider when evaluating non-American prospects, and Rubštavičius already shows he’s able to do so.
Physical Profile
At 6’7”, Rubštavičius has excellent positional size to play as a full-time wing at the next level. At 195 pounds, he has a slim frame but is very quick with his feet. His solid first step is his weapon to create off-the-dribble separation.
He grew a few inches in recent years, maintaining his guard skills. Developing better upper-body strength is something to work on. What stands out in his profile is his excellent hip mobility combined with his footwork and handles. This is why he had the opportunity to play professional basketball at an early age.
Offense
Efficiency is the name of the game when you have to play with limited ball touches. Rubštavičius has consistently shown to be able to knock down shots after making very few dribbles.
He flourishes in an up-tempo game, making the NBL fit seem natural. In the play below Rubštavičius shows he’s able to create separation by making the right decisions.
The pass-fake to the right ended up with a potential wide-open driving lane, hence the one-dribble move. However, with help defense on its way, pulling up for the three was the right move. Despite the miss, it’s an example of how Rubštavičius can generate good looks with limited dribbles.
On an NBA floor, Rubštavičius has shown that he’s able to combine his quick decision-making with his solid first step. With playing out of closeouts being a key factor for projected low-usage wings, plays like these are the base for a solid floor where he’ll get consistent minutes.
Coming out of the Lithuanian youth setup, Rubštavičius has learned to play the right way. By moving his body towards the ball, he’s indirectly avoiding the defender to cover the baseline, whereafter he’s showing his excellent hip mobility to change sides and attack the basket for the finish in traffic.
Another aspect of Rubštavičius’ shooting prowess is how quickly he sets his feet to launch his pull-up jumper. With an average of 17% of NBA offenses being in transition, that’s an area where he has the chance to become a high-volume shooter on a team that likes to play a fast-paced offense.
With long steps and by keeping his head down, Rubštavičius keeps all attention on the ball-handler, with former NBA big man Aron Baynes being the only opponent that’s noticing Rubštavičius preparing to spot-up near the elbow.
He has consistently shown smart off-ball movement throughout the season, an area where Rubštavičius has a great feel for the game.
NBA decision-makers would like to see the untapped potential in Rubštavičius’ ability to serve as a secondary playmaker outside of his scoring. With his solid first step, he is consistently showing he’s an aggressive player with the ball in his hands.
Hunting down paint touches to utilize his great footwork in creating advantages for himself and others is what Rubštavičius thrives on. The play below is a good example of how he’s still creating a multiple-paint touch, showcasing his footwork, composure, and timely bounce pass to the cutting big.
A role where Rubštavičius could thrive at the NBA level is him being used as a four in a smaller line-up, especially when he’s continuing to add more upper-body strength to handle physical contact in the paint much better.
At the moment he’s mostly being utilized as a passer from the top of the key or in the high post. In the play below, he shows his quick decision-making by asking for the entry pass, followed by the touch dump-off to the big man down low for the and-one.
Despite the limited playmaking sample size, there is one consistent factor in Rubštavičius’ passing, and that's him chasing multiple paint touches or hitting backdoor cutters.
A team that runs many motion-based plays would be the best fit for Rubštavičius. Due to him turning 22 years old a month before the draft, teams likely expect him to contribute right away. Therefore his off-ball movement and cutting is a crucial part of this evaluation.
On that end, Rubštavičius is consistently making the right reads with good execution. The play below summarizes how a short closeout is being replaced by a wide-open baseline lane for the backdoor cut. Rubštavičius notices the ball-handler is going to switch to the strong side, followed by him making sure his assignment sees him and stays within a good closeout range. The pressure on the defense leads to his assignment having to help, whereafter Rubštavičius cuts to the rim.
In general, inexperienced players would have gone for the cut at an earlier stage or would have stayed put waiting for the pass. Despite this play being an easy read for experienced pros, consistently making the game seem easy at a young age is what’s still noteworthy in regards to their long-term development.
Defense
On the defense end, Rubštavičius has to show he can defend the wing consistently to play minutes on an NBA floor. With his fluid hips and solid first step, he has the athletic tools to match quickness and movement.
However, his decision-making when closing out is not at the NBA level yet. The play below summarizes that he needs to learn to keep the same composure he has when he has the ball in his hands.
The opponent switches to the weakside, and instead of making his man beat his off the dribble, although he does a good job of placing his pivot foot aggressively to his right to keep the weakside closed, the closeout itself was too far from the paint, leading to help defense being needed, with a potential open three at the top of the key as a result.
Despite the good contest on the mid-range pull-up jumper, Rubštavičius’ closeout being too aggressive cost his team two points here.
In the heat of the moment, Rubštavičius’ will to make winning plays on defense can lead to making it tougher for him to recognize rotations.
The play below shows that instead of rotating to the elbow, or positioning himself near the high post, he follows his teammate to the corner, whereafter the closeout to the scorer is timely, but he lost too much balance in the process, leading to him falling to the ground after the crossover.
Composure and focusing on his rotations on defense are the biggest areas of development he has to work on in the remainder of this NBL season.
In isolation, Rubštavičius shows his lack of experience but tries to prevent the entry pass too actively. His long wingspan could lead to a deflection, but the initial pass fake should have been the sign for him that the ball handler’s intention was the dribble penetration instead of the big man’s post-up with 10 seconds left on the clock.
The more Rubštavičius moves in one-on-one situations, the more unbalanced he gets, leading him to get crossed over, despite his lateral quickness being good enough to keep most opponents in front of him.
In general, his feel for the game isn’t the issue and shows the contrary, being that he’ll likely improve over time. But as a 22-year-old, NBA decision-makers want to see an average defender at worst to make sure that rookie minutes won’t hurt the team’s defensive rating too much.
In a switch-heavy NBA, being able to make good decisions as a pick-and-roll defender is going to be a crucial skill set for prospects moving forward. In Rubštavičius’ case, the limited sample size makes it tough to put a clear conclusion about how he’ll perform on that end.
However, there is a consistent issue that has to be improved. In the play below, Rubštavičius is looking for the screener who wasn’t involved in the play, leading to him losing his man. The missed shot is irrelevant as opposing video analysts will point out that he should be the focus on switches in pick-and-roll set offenses. His screen navigation has to improve to play consistent NBA minutes.
As a defender in the post, the current lack of upper-body strength is leading to him struggling against players with more experience. With his quick decision-making and solid passing ability, a role to play as a four in a smaller line-up will be a skillset that’ll have NBA decision-makers intrigued.
However, what a team will give away on defense is the other side of the medal. In Rubštavičius’ case, his positioning in post-defense looks off. After the entry pass, he should have covered the baseline to avoid the spin move as it would increase the odds of it ending up in an out-of-bounds play for his opponent, while at the same time, it would make it easier for help defense to arrive. In the play below the contrary happened.
Positioning in the post is an area of development in Rubštavičius’ profile that has to be taken into consideration by NBA decision-makers.
As a help defender, the most common error prospects have is that they tend to overhelp, which leads to another opponent being left open. The play below has the same, but the process itself was good.
The lack of a three second-rule makes it less appealing from an NBA standpoint, but with Rubštavičius showing his awareness to avoid the backdoor cut, his reasoning to cover the big man near the baseline is to cover his own big man’s mistake by focusing on the ball-handler that was stuck under the rim.
Impressive quickness in the closeout, where Rubštavičius uses his long wingspan and athleticism to force the miss. If his decision-making in defensive sets improves, Rubštavičius will become a better defender at the next level.
NBA Draft Projection
An NBA team will get a consistent shooter that has already proven to be able to knock down shots at the highest level. His ability to quickly set his feet with the shot mechanics itself looks good, an NBA coaching staff doesn’t have much to worry about the shooting side of his profile.
As a passer, Rubštavičius gets more interesting due to his excellent footwork and the ability to read to defense and generate multiple paint touches. He’s a good passer with the potential to be a secondary playmaker with either the ball in his hands or as a ball-mover in the post as a four in a smaller line-up.
On the defensive end, the lack of upper-body strength leads to Rubštavičius’ struggles against bigger and stronger players. However, fundamentally there are still several areas that have to be cleaned up, limiting his long-term potential.
On the offensive end, Rubštavičius will be able to be a neutral factor at worst for a team’s offensive rating. However, on the defensive end, consistently showing that he needs more reps to improve as a decision-maker at 22 years old makes me conclude that he likely won’t get drafted in the first round.
With the NBA’s desire for more players who are ready to play, Rubštavičius has a clear path to play as a ball-moving wing shooter at the next level. With his solid handles and first step combined with his long wingspan, he has the physical tools to grow as a defender.
Based on the above-mentioned, I expect Rubštavičius to be selected in the early stages of the second round of the 2024 NBA Draft.