Kyle Filipowski Scouting Report
The ACC Rookie of the Year continues to be the focal point of Duke's offense in year two. How scalable is his game to the NBA? What will his role be? Find out more below.
Being the fourth player in conference history to be named ACC Rookie of the Year and ACC Tournament MVP in the same season raised expectations for Filipowski.
An important context to add to his profile is that Filipowski had surgery on both hips. And it paid dividends. With Duke sitting at the top of the conference and improving his production on better efficiency, it’s safe to say he’s knocking on the door of the NBA.
Physical Profile
At seven feet, Filipowski has a well-filled frame at 248 pounds. He’s not an explosive athlete with a great vertical pop by any means, but he makes up for it with incredible footwork combined with fluidity you’ll rarely see at his size.
With a strong upper body, he’s continued to add to his frame by improving his upper leg strength while maintaining his quickness. This is one reason he’s such a feared post-scorer in college basketball.
Defense
In the NBA, Filipowski will often be asked to close out to the perimeter. With more teams playing regularly four or even five out, being able to switch to elbows and corners will determine a chunk of his defensive impact.
While evaluating his defensive plays, Filipowski shows that he recognizes rotations very well. He’s actively coaching his teammate, showing he’s worthy of wearing the #30 jersey Coach Scheyer also wore in his playing career for the Blue Devils.
While roaming in the painted area, Filipowski does well in reading the offense to make his movements. However, the lack of space inside the arc makes it harder for him to execute his reads.
The second play is an example where he sees the elbow shooter at the top relocating and tries to rotate but finds his teammate standing in front of him. His gambling on the miss to ensure an extra body for the defensive rebound was a good decision.
In the last play, Filipowski recognizes the open driving lane near the high post on the strong side. He rotates timely to cover the rim for both the cutting big and still made it to contest the corner shooter after the kick-out pass.
Closing out timely makes Filipowski a reliable team defender for Duke. He shows the same consistency when opponents decide to attack him after the closeout.
The defensive footwork makes him such a deciding factor as a defender. He doesn’t stand out with his lateral quickness, but Filipowski’s aggressiveness in terms of using his pivot foot ensures him to keep his balance. That’s a valuable asset he brings to the NBA where teams are slowly adjusting their big-man defense by relying less on drop coverage schemes.
An area of development for him is to be less vulnerable to biting on pump fakes, with the first and fourth plays being an example. His hip surgery helped him to defend as well. In the second play, we see his fluidity and ease of moving his hips to react to the ball-handler switching sides.
As an off-ball defender, Filipowski makes the correct reads but regularly fails to execute them. One of the things that he does well is tagging rollers in pick-and-roll coverages as we see in the first play below. This helps him to keep track of his assignments while being ready to rotate which led to the stop at the rim.
In the second play, he’s caught ball-watching resulting in him jumping on a possession that was going to end in a drop-off pass due to the ball handler not having the body control to attempt a floater or lay-up finish.
However, it mostly is relatable to Duke’s underclassmen-heavy roster which leads to a lack of consistent execution of team defense schemes. But an NBA decision-maker should consider this when evaluating his profile.
While his off-ball defense isn’t on a level yet that’ll lead to him being a neutral factor in a team’s defensive rating, it’s a good sign that Filipowski can make the reads he has to.
Defending pick-and-roll offense is going to be another crucial area that’ll determine Filipowski’s career. While he mostly plays drop coverage his ability to be able to keep ball-handlers in front of him is a plus in his profile.
He doesn’t have to speed laterally to keep up with hard drives but Filipowski does well to force ball-handlers to take a decision early after they switch to him. His defensive footwork is a big reason why. Filipowski doesn’t stand out as a rim protector despite his 1.7 blocks per game. His way to protect the rim is to make the ball-handler beat him off the dribble to even get to the rim.
The first and third plays below are examples of the above-mentioned where he drops but takes on his assignment before touching the painted area. This is something he can help an NBA team with early in his career. However, he’ll likely struggle against gifted scorers due to his first step not being good enough to recover after he loses his balance, with the fourth play below being an example.
In a faster-paced NBA game, it’s going to be crucial for Filipowski to keep his consistent motor and still be able to play long minutes. He’s already averaging about 30 minutes in back-to-back seasons despite the severe pain in his hips as a freshman, so that’s a good sign for him in showing NBA decision-makers he’s not a situational player but can play long minutes for them.
Better athletes who thrive on exploiting an open floor are tough to guard. That’s an area of development Filipowski has to improve at the next level. At times he’s being too aggressive in his contest at the rim, with the first and third plays being an example.
Something that stood out was he’s still actively coaching his teammates, with the second play showing him setting the defense in the four-on-three transition play.
Offense
Filipowski’s passing is going to be his bread and butter at the NBA level. He’s not only regularly executing his reads but also made exploiting his passing threat a part of his scoring arsenal.
In the NBA the modern big man must maintain fluid ball movement by either quickly finding open teammates or serving as a playmaking hub inside the arc. Filpowski does both.
In the first play, he rolls to the left arc after the screen while setting his feet for the midrange jumper. His breaking down the defense that way to find the spot-up shooter is crucial in his value as a floor-spacer.
The passing threat is what North Carolina prepared for in the second play. With Filipowski attacking his assignment from the top of the key to make them pack the paint was a smart play. With no passing options available, he steps back for the pull-up three.
That’s the value an NBA team is looking for in a big man. Being able to put a part of the scoring load on your five is what is crucial for a team in maintaining and even improving their offensive rating.
As the roll man in pick-and-roll schemes, Filipowski shows that he can maintain a healthy shot diet while still getting his ability to score at the rim. A three-point-heavy scoring arsenal isn’t sustainable and utilizing his footwork and fluidity is what sets Filipowski apart from most of his peers in this draft.
A seven-footer handling the rock is what most NBA teams are trying to find nowadays. In Filipowski’s case, he can earn even more ball touches if he shows consistency both as a shooter and face-up scorer in pick-and-roll actions. Individual scoring skills make it more sustainable for teams to keep him on a court, with the first play being an example.
One of the things Filipowski has to work on in the NBA is to not force his offense too much. He’s at 28% usage as a sophomore, which is not going to happen in his early NBA career.
Sequences such as the first play where the offense dries out and with less than ten on the clock it’s his task to carry the scoring load. An NBA franchise won’t ask him to do so. Therefore, making the extra pass and adding value with off-ball movement and screening should be his role.
However, when he has to create plays out of closeouts he shows he’s able to get to the rim and use his solid frame to be able to carve fouls out of them. At almost five free throws per game as an underclassman, Filipowski is still looking for consistency from the line—76.5% as a freshman; and 65.4% as a sophomore.
We do see improvement in Filipowski’s three-point shooting in year two. He stays at about 3.5 attempts per game but sees his percentage go up from 28.2% to 35.6%.
With his ability as a floor-spacer, a team can play four or even five out to utilize his shooting. This is something we see him do at Duke as well. With Filipowski being able to find shooting consistency from the top of the key and the corners, it’s safe to say his floor spacing will lead to him finding his production as a shooter early on in his NBA career.
To project the feasibility of Filipowski’s chances to play himself into a bigger offensive role, isolation is one of the safest measures. As Duke’s de facto leader, we have seen him take the matter into his own hands as the bucket-getter with the game on the line.
The first play is an example, landing the and-one in isolation via the after-timeout sideline out-of-bounds play. The ability to handle to ball and use his fluid hips in his signature spin move is something that’ll earn him opportunities to show he can do the same on an NBA floor.
In the last play, we see what that can look like. He’s still not consistent with his rim-finishes. At 63.7% on the year, that’s not a bad number in itself but to maintain a neutral offensive rating and consider his position on the court, that’s something he has to improve.
NBA Draft Projection
With an NBA-ready frame footwork and fluidity that sets him apart from most of his peers, Filipowski offers a solid base for his draft value. While he’s still 20 years old on draft night, the sophomore will have two seasons of basketball under his belt as one of the top players in the ACC.
On the defensive end, we have seen Filipowski show leadership and consistent reads that make it easier for an NBA team to find a role for him. His consistent motor and playing 30 minutes per game for two straight seasons show that he’s able to handle long minutes. The hip injury after his freshman season has resulted in him getting stronger and staying healthy in year two, which doesn’t lead to any durability risks an NBA decision-maker should consider.
On the offensive end, passing is a highly regarded trait of the modern big. With Filipowski showing he’s able to use his passing threat to find his offense and space the floor for others, he’s making it more likely that he can be on an NBA floor on day one to serve as a playmaking hub or ball-mover.
His defense in transition and transitioning from a high-usage player to a lower-usage role are two risks in his profile an NBA decision-maker should consider when making a decision.
Based on the above-mentioned, I project Filipowski as a safe top-20 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft with the possibility for his stock to rise to the lottery based on the production and team success in the remainder of the college basketball season.
Great work. Keep it up