Judah Mintz Scouting Report

From a preseason first-rounder to not being invited to the NBA Draft Combine. How much draft value does Mintz still have? What's his NBA role, and will he get drafted? Find out below.

Mintz followed up his All-ACC Freshman Team season with a successful sophomore campaign. After scoring almost 19 points per game while shooting 43.8% from the floor, he crowned his productive season with an All-ACC Second Team selection.

He plays in a usage-heavy role where the amount of ball touches won’t reflect to what an NBA team will ask him to do. Combined with his lack of efficiency as Syracuse’s leading scorer, the odds are against Mintz in terms of getting his name called on draft night.

Contextualizing the above-mentioned is crucial to properly evaluate his profile. This scouting report solely focuses on his NBA role and areas of development.

Physical Profile

At 6’3.25” in socks, Mintz has a good size to play as a one. With decent upper-leg strength and fluid hips, Mintz’s handles combined with his offensive creativity make him an effective interior scorer. While lacking an explosive first step, Mintz shows his craft and physicality as ways to get his spots.

At 181 pounds, there’s room to fill his frame in the next few years. Mintz should focus on adding upper-body strength, exploiting his broad shoulders to be able to defend against twos and potentially threes on an NBA floor. With a 6’3.50” wingspan, Mintz doesn’t have the length teams are looking for. However, this shouldn’t influence his stock much due to him making up for physical deficiencies with his mental toughness and leadership.

Mintz has light feet and still-developing footwork. That’s an area where NBA decision-makers should focus on in preparing his developmental plan, with many examples throughout this report.

Defense

As a pick-and-roll defender, Mintz doesn’t show any sign of maintaining a team’s defensive rating. He shows a combination of bad screen navigation which is followed up by being out of position more often than not. Throughout the season, not taking on physical contact is a primary reason why Mintz gets stuck in screens, and opponents, especially during conference play, exploit this part of Mintz’s defense.

In the first play below, the ball screen came a few seconds later than Mintz expected. He's trying to tag the screener to slide in between is a positive sign. The opposing ball handler getting separation wasn’t followed up by Mintz switching properly, as getting into a hard box-out mode was the way to go, despite the ball ending up in his hands for the rebound.

We see a similar outcome in the second play below, the lack of wanting to make up for allowing his opposing ball handler to get separation isn’t being shown enough. An example of what an NBA team will expect from Mintz is to not watch if the ball rolls in but instead focus on the two relocating spot-up shooters at the elbow and above the break, to potentially close out on them.

Mintz needs too much time to locate incoming ball screens, in the last play below, this led to the ball handler simply rejecting the screen to benefit from the wide-open driving lane on the weak side, taking the time before the floating-finish. An important detail to add is that Mintz wasn’t in a good rebounding position, as he went too close to the rim, which is a result of him focusing on the outcome of the shot rather than trying to make the extra play.

When defending against closeouts, Mintz shows below-average footwork when it comes to his last step. More often than not, he closes out where he doesn’t keep his man at 180 degrees in front of him, making the process difficult for him. In the first play below, Mintz has to prepare and balance himself before placing the pivot foot on his last step. While sprinting to the corner, he made himself vulnerable as he looked unbalanced throughout the whole process.

In the second play below, Mintz shows improvement despite being positioned at 90 degrees from his assignment. This is a result of him overhelping on the initial drive to the rim, where Mintz bails out the opponent by stepping in to help way too early. The amount of contact was too much in this play, as an offensive foul should have been called. Mintz stayed on his feet, which shows a degree of toughness to his game.

The last play below shows that poor decision-making is another factor in Mintz’s below-average defense. With a wide-open driving lane behind him, he has no reason to fully jump on the potential pull-up three from NBA range. The contrary is true here, at sequences like these, a player’s feel for the game is the difference between a stop and a potential transition look or giving up two points. Mintz biting on the pump-fake on a bad-quality shot with 20 seconds left on the clock is something he’ll have to work on in terms of improving his decision-making.

When defending against spot-up shooters, Mintz’s lack of positioning makes it harder for him to eventually close out on shooters. Throughout the season, he consistently showed that he’s too early in committing help defense, making it easier for opponents for the extra pass. In an NBA game with more ball movement, that’s an area NBA decision-makers will have to take notice of.

In the first play below. Mintz shows a good closeout where he’s at nearly 180 degrees while still covering the passing lane to the wide-open elbow. He follows it up by contesting the jumper hard. That’s a good look on his part where Mintz thinks ahead and tries to stop the extra pass.

However, the above-mentioned issues occur in the second play, where Mintz has no reason to position himself under the basket, while he has to have at least one foot out of the paint to close out to the corner. Especially considering that the opponent hasn’t even had a foot in the paint in the post-up position yet. This leads to Mintz bailing out the opponent on a good defensive possession for Syracuse, leading to Mintz’s closeout being an uphill battle in terms of the amount of ground he had to recover.

The third play is another sequence that shows a degree of flashes for improvement. Mintz is positioned with one foot out of the paint, trying to tag the potential cutter under the basket. But then proceeds to sneak into the paint when moving closer to the opponent, making the closeout yet again harder. For reference, Syracuse ranked outside the top 325 in college in terms of shots giving up against catch-and-shoot three-pointers. Not entirely on Mintz, but possessions like these show that he has a fair share in it.

The advantages of the NCAA’s long but narrow painted area make it easier for players to recognize their positioning. While playing on a less-spaced floor compared to the NBA, easy tools as these are must-haves that NBA decision-makers are looking for to see how a player processes the defensive set, purely on the positioning part. This area of Mintz’s defense makes it likely that he’ll struggle to adjust to a better-spaced and faster NBA game.

As an off-ball defender against cutters, Mintz is vulnerable to ball-watching, leading to him giving up backdoor cuts to collapse his defense. In the first play below, Mintz kept his eye on the ball handler for four consecutive seconds, with him checking in on his own assignment way less than he should have. This led to the easy backdoor cut through the middle in a possession where Syracuse packed the painted area well but still gave up a wide-open layup near the rim.

The second play shows more promise where Mintz is positioned as the weakside defender. His habit of ball-watching is less of a threat because he can see the whole line of defense ahead of him. After the cutter is hit, Mintz shows a timely reaction to collapse to the rim as the help-side defender. Important flashes that are directly translatable to his NBA role.

In a switch-heavy NBA game, it’s likely that he’ll play as a helpside defender due to being a below-average pick-and-roll defender. Therefore, NBA teams usually leverage that to make opponents earn their switches, and thus most of the time leading to an advantage elsewhere—milking time away from the shot clock to influence a team’s pace.

The last possession below is a value-riser adding value to his defense against cuts. When taking away his habit of ball-watching, Mintz looks much more comfortable and confident in his ability to make winning plays. Mintz does very well in recognizing a potential hand-off, thus relocating to the elbow to impact the passing lane, and potentially deflecting the hand-off.

However, he sees his assignment launch himself for the backdoor cut, showing decent footwork by hard-placing his pivot foot to turn to cover the passing lane inside the arc, eventually executing his read with the steal.

Offense

At 8.3 free-throw attempts per game, Mintz’s aggressive-scoring game translates to him being so productive. While converting 76.5% of his attempts at the line, it’s a plus-value to his touch and thus why he’s so consistent in his production despite having multiple off-nights shooting-wise throughout the season.

An NBA franchise is buying offensive creativity with Mintz, and thus making his plays out of closeouts the most crucial for him to stick in the league. His ball-heavy game at Syracuse isn’t a good context for his NBA role. Most usage-heavy guards struggle to adjust early on to the NBA, especially the ones who rely on the ball to get their production up. Mintz can potentially be one of the rare prospects who can adjust to a reduced role as a secondary or tertiary ball handler.

The reason for this is his offensive creativity and great handles, making his game better-scalable. In the five sequences below, Mintz shows why he’s one the toughest guards in college. As a 64.1% rim-finisher on almost four attempts per game, that’s a great number adding value to his heavy-volume interior scoring on top of the production from the line.

In the first play below, Mintz uses the hesitation move to penetrate. He doesn’t have an explosive first step, but he more than makes up for it with his craft, handles, and physical contact to make the foul-drawing chances near the rim quite high for himself. A key reason for this is Mintz using high dribbles, keeping the ball high helps him to force defenders to put their arms up early thus making it easier for Mintz to draw fouls if the layups he’ll attempt are becoming too tough.

The second play shows an example of his handles, while he’s dribbling out of the pick-and-roll coverage before the side pass. Hereafter, Mintz does well to use his pivot foot to launch himself for the blow-by. Generating paint touches is what makes him so effective, and this particular skill set is what’s valued among NBA decision-makers.

At times, Mintz tends to force the issue thus piling the usage and ineffectiveness up. Therefore, he’ll be relieved to be in the NBA where the scoring load will be less heavier than at Syracuse. In the third play below, Mintz sees a wide-open driving lane in the middle, blinding his decision-making to fall into the defender’s trap who was ready to pick up the charge.

The difference between getting drafted or not is in Mintz’s potential to improve his footwork. The fourth play and fifth plays show an example of him having decent footwork on offense, which should improve in the upcoming years on NBA development, thus helping him on the defensive side of the ball as well. In terms of shot selection, self-created midrange looks are still a part of the game, and that’s where Mintz has thrived his entire life. The downside in this is that he’s forcing too many of these shots, not making the extra pass. That’s something an NBA decision-maker has to add to his developmental plan.

While shooting 28.2% from three, Mintz’s lack of volume is the first thing that stands out. At less than 20% of his attempts being three-pointers, it again shows the interior-heavy scoring character of his game. This is not an issue when it comes to his NBA role, considering that Mintz is a better shooter than the numbers indicate.

This is because his shot selection often gets in his way, having to take tough threes in his role as Syracuse’s leading scorer. On an NBA floor, he’ll be limited to serve as a spot-up shooter. And that’s where the jumper looks much better in terms of mechanics.

There are still areas to clean up, as Mintz mostly overbends his knees to power up for his jumpers. He’s quick to set his feet, which forms the base to improve his jumper, both mechanically and how quickly he gets them off. In the first and second plays, Mintz loses a tad too much time because he’s using his whole body to power up for the jumper. A positive is that his release point is high, which is a must-have considering his neutral wingspan and thus the lack of length making that his only option.

The third and fourth plays show that Mintz’s release may be high, but he’s pushing the shot too much instead of having a smooth release. He looks uncomfortable as a shooter because his game is characterized by his great touch and craft as an interior scorer. Therefore, it’s less likely that Mintz will turn into a volume shooter in the NBA, which is fine due to him serving as a floor-spacer with his ability to generate paint touches and free throws.

Therefore, it makes Mintz’s passing another crucial aspect of his NBA role. At 4.4 assists per game, the numbers support the above-mentioned. But the quality of his playmaking is where it gets trickier. Mintz’s assists are mostly the outcome of basic reads where the flow of the offense leads to passing opportunities. He doesn’t stand out at making hard live-dribble reads with an outcome that surprises the defense.

There is no issue in the above-mentioned, but it’s a waste for Mintz’s long-term potential itself due to how good his offensive creativity is as a scorer. It does not translate to his playmaking taking away some untapped potential NBA teams might want to exploit. In his defense, the smartness of the decisions he’s making is what still gives him the edge over many of his peers in this class.

Recognizing and creating angles is what Mintz does well. That’s the nature of his scoring helping him in his playmaking. In the first play, Mintz stays on the weak side after the ball screen comes in, because he sees that it’s either opening up the angle for hitting the cutter through both defenders, or him driving baseline to get to the rim. In his execution, he goes for the overhead pass instead due to being a tad too late with the bounce pass.

In the second play, Mintz drives into the paint with the Syracuse offense not being set yet. He recognizes his big man needing some extra time to get downhill, thus he throws in the hesitation move to win some time before hitting the cutting big man down the middle. Small but important details that support Mintz exactly knowing what he’s looking for.

The lack of hard live-dribble reads is visible in the third and fourth plays below. It will be much harder for Mintz to develop these because his interior-heavy scoring takes away space to operate inside the arc. With teams knowing he’s a below-average three-point shooter, they’ll pack the paint to give him less room to operate. Leveraging his pull-up jumper has less value due to it being a below-average shot any NBA defense will be willing to give up.

In AAC play, Mintz faced the same issues. This led to his assists being mostly kick-out passes to open spot-up shooters. His great handles and craft always allowed him to get downhill anyway, but that’s harder to achieve in the NBA considering that the ball touches will be heavily scaled down to fit into a sustainable role.

Eventually, Mintz has the opportunity to earn more on-ball reps, and thus able to make more plays for himself and others as the pick-and-roll ball handler. And that’s where scaling his game becomes tough for NBA teams due to two important reasons: milking too much time off the clock and chasing too many self-created looks thus hurting the flow of the offense.

NBA teams want to play fast, whereas slower-paced teams usually design their offense with more ball movement. Mintz doesn’t fit in both with his current game. In the first play, it took four seconds to attack the rim while the weak side was there to exploit. He partially makes up for it by lulling the defense to sleep with his decelerations before the high finish of the glass. That’s where his evaluation becomes a hard thing to do as the areas of development are tough to overcome, but the result of his offense is often too good to pass up on.

This continues in the second play below, where Mintz shows the level of self-creation that every team in the NBA wants to fill their rotation with. The footwork was well executed, but the part where NBA teams will buy the offense is in his ability to sell the defense the jumper after the decelerating, while every scouting report on his says that he will attack the rim. High-level play.

The area that NBA teams will still hold against Mintz is his forcing the issue too often. The third play is one that’ll end up in him getting subbed out of the game due to the shot-hunting character of it. Making the extra pass more often can change the trajectory of the offensive side of his NBA role.

NBA Draft Projection

Mintz will get drafted. That’s a given despite his defensive limitations. That’s because a player with his level of offensive creativity combined with great handles is needed by every NBA team.

Syracuse wasn’t a good team context for his draft stock. Mostly because the scoring load was in Mintz’s hands the whole time, leading to most of the inefficiencies. An NBA decision-maker will easily see past the numbers for the real translatable things.

Despite better-spaced NBA courts, teams will be able to defend Mintz’s interior-scoring game much more easily. The lack of a reliable jumper from three isn’t the main reason, but his shot selection and the self-creating nature of his game are. Mintz’s biggest challenge to stick in the league is to become a better team player and connective passer, not a better shooter.

Throughout NBA history, guards with excellent handles, craft, and scoring have kept them in the league long enough. In today’s analytics and three-point shooting heavy game, it became tougher for these types of players to stick. Despite Mintz’s clear areas of development on the defensive side of the ball, the above-mentioned argument of being a better team player is the biggest thing to work on for Mintz.

Based on the pros and the cons of his profile, I project Mintz to be a second-round pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, with it being likely he’ll be selected between 41 and 50, whereafter he’ll spend a majority of his time in the G League.