Joshua Jefferson Scouting Report
Joshua Jefferson is one of college basketball's best transfer portal additions. He has changed the Cyclones' trajectory. With NBA scouts looking closely, here's everything you need to know:
Introduction
Development isn’t linear, but in Jefferson’s case, he did a fantastic job planning out his career by playing two seasons at one of college basketball’s best four-year programs, Saint Mary’s. His game improved vastly in terms of his fundamentals, where Jefferson emerged as a versatile defender in the interior while improving his defensive awareness and growing in a role to defend against multiple positions.
Jefferson is all about substance and a team-improving player first, rather than someone who stands out with flashy plays or productivity. That’s the context behind his role. As a result, he fits seamlessly into a defensively elite Iowa State team that struggled to find the right connecting pieces on offense. That’s the role he’s filling in for Coach Otzelberger and his staff, which fits seamlessly with his NBA role. That’s the emphasis of this scouting report.
Physical Profile
At 6-foot-9, Jefferson is a strongly built bruizer-typed forward physically. He has an incredibly well-filled frame with broad shoulders. While measured at 240 pounds, the biggest sell for NBA teams is his good core strength. His fluid hips help him maintain his mobility while putting up more weight and muscle over the years.
Jefferson is a good athlete and stands out with his good burst. Despite average lateral quickness, he has good and big hands that help him to utilize his physical tools as a play-finisher. His hand-eye coordination is at a high level. This benefits his passing game while showing a good touch around the rim.
There is no official measurement available, but it’s safe to say Jefferson has an above-average wingspan. His body looks NBA-ready, which is a value riser for his profile, considering he’s only in his junior year.
Offense
Passing and playmaking
Jefferson’s exceptional feel for the game on the offensive end forms the base for his case to improve a team’s offensive rating with him on the floor. His presence adds a new dynamic compared to last year’s Iowa State team. The quick decision-making, passing feel, and overall level of his game-processing make it all feasible that NBA coaching staff are willing to run plays through him. At 2.7 assists per game, he’s already showing decent returns.
The main sell is Jefferson leveraging his threat as a scorer via the post. He’s patient and uses his plus-size well to keep defenders out of reach to poke the ball away. At the same time, he’s fast to execute his reads when help defense does decide to commit. Finding cutters on a less-spaced floor compared to the NBA should intrigue all teams. In the first play below, Jefferson makes a smart relocation to make it easier to receive the ball after the handoff while creating a much better angle for himself to find the backdoor cutter.
He’s making the difference in the details. In the second possession below, he coaches his teammate, who cuts before throwing in a pass fake that indirectly makes three defenders commit. Hereafter, he pivots his right foot well by keeping the threat of him spinning and sealing alive. The execution of his read looked easier due to all the good preparation work he did. That continues in the third play, as Jefferson looks to keep his attack against the closeout alive while surveying the floor. He found the angle on the weak side after the backdoor cutter popped to the rim while dishing a one-handed bounce pass.
To scale his passing potential up, the threat of his decision-making and scoring in the post needs to continue to flourish. As a 70%+ finisher at the rim, Jefferson remains a threat. In the fourth and fifth plays below, he’s seen to throw in how scoring preparation with great footwork before he again waits out the right angle and movement around him. With fewer than two turnovers per game, Jefferson’s decision-making should earn more value as he isn’t afraid to make riskier passes.
Post-ups
To increase his post-up leverage, Jefferson’s strength and toughness are good measurements to grade how feasible his passing potential is for the NBA. Despite fewer opportunities in the post, it’s still a vital part of today’s NBA, specifically for floor-spacing and opening up cutters and shooters all over the floor. Jefferson’s well-filled frame puts him in a good position to hunt mismatches but also win ground when he’s posting up against other forwards and centers.
In the first play below, Jefferson bullies his opponent until he is two feet far inside the paint. Hereafter, he can also pivot his left foot well while loading up to attack the defender’s chest. That helped him to effectively draw the foul while almost cashing in the and-one opportunity. At four free-throw attempts per game, he converts at 78.5% it’s feasible for the Cyclones to continue to allow him to have a few of these opportunities per game, especially considering his back-to-back seasons of improving his efficiency at the charity stripe.
In the second possession, Jefferson struggled to find the much-needed separation. His decision-making to go for the tougher finish over a defender with the arms up and feet set was a bad one. It shows that Jefferson can suffer from tunnel vision when he’s looking to get his own buckets. The safer kick-out or dropoff to the center beside him, who put himself in his sight, was a better option. Staying away from bad-quality attempts like these is an area of development NBA scouts have to monitor for the remainder of the season. This continues in the baseline out-of-bounds play, where Jefferson’s aggressiveness to attack the rim is a positive, but facing up right into the help defender was simply a bad decision.
Catch-and-drive
At 6-foot-9, Jefferson lacks a few inches to be a full-time center in the NBA. Combined with today’s trend of more four or even five-out-styled offenses, Jefferson must showcase his ability to make plays out of closeouts. Creativity is the first step toward more ball touches in the NBA, which will benefit his passing potential more.
His excellent burst and footwork helped Jefferson to catch his opponent by surprise. His handles are loose but good enough to protect it from help defenders on his path. However, the area of development for him is to correct his last step, where Jefferson often doesn’t pivot well to maintain his balance before entering his finishing mode at the rim. The first play below shows an example. On top of that, he was in a position to make the extra pass, but, understandably, he challenged the defender under the rim in clear sight with the opportunity to potentially get the and-one.
The rate with which Jefferson draws fouls is a value riser of his profile. In the second possession, he pivoted well before the catch to explode to the rim, where he launched for the layup a tad too early.
However, his shooting 30% on less than two three-point attempts per game makes it challenging to effectively leverage his closeout attacks. In the third play, he reverse-pivoted, but the defender anticipated it earlier. Being a hesitant shooter is an area of focus for NBA scouts to keep track of.
Cuts
The lack of being a consistent threat as a spot-up shooter adds importance to Jefferson’s active cutting. As the graph above shows, he’s efficient around the basket to support a team’s offensive rating, which fuels the feasibility of finding his fair share of play-finishing opportunities at the next level. In the first play, Jefferson does well to bring the ball to the ground while surveying the floor. However, with three defenders crowding the paint, his tunnel vision again put him in a tough position where a dropoff pass after pivoting before the fake could have led to him earning two points for his team.
Making the extra pass after cuts is an area of development for him, despite how well his playmaking game is. For NBA scouts, it’s only adding to the positivity around his passing and fearlessness to make mistakes. In the second play, he’s immediately attempting the touch pass after seeing a cutter in the middle. Despite the deflection, that’s a good pass and read he should continue to do.
However, playing easy as a cutter remains the main focus. Jefferson’s interior presence should help him to feast off garbage points or play-finishes as shown in the third and fourth plays below. His active cutting on a better-spaced NBA floor while showing flashes of making the right decisions as the recipient of passes after cuts opens up his fit to play in a motion-heavy NBA-styled offense after college.
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Defense
Pick-and-roll
As a pick-and-roll defender, Jefferson’s a steady factor when playing in the second line of defense. His burst helps him hedge, or sometimes blitz ball handlers, while he’s timely with his help defense. However, teams often try to force switches due to Jefferson’s habit of being too reactive to the ball handler. That makes him more vulnerable to jab steps and ball-fakes. Hereafter, opposing scorers can put him out of balance and thus impact Jefferson’s ability to effectively fight through screens. That’s the main area of development. The first play shows an example where fakes and change of pace put Jefferson out of balance, whereafter the backline had to help, and thus, the interior defense collapsed.
In the second possession, Jefferson shows better awareness when he’s tagging the incoming screener, which gives him a better cushion to better attached to the ball handler. However, the struggle is not using his same burst where he’s focusing on keeping his balance while the ball handlers look to immediately use the separation to blow by him. That makes Jefferson too responsive, with the lob pass and dunk as a result.
However, when teams don’t switch against him, Jefferson’s much more comfortable while using his speed and quickness to actively go over screens. He’s not afraid to pressure ball handlers, as shown in the third play below. In today’s NBA, teams try to put less drop-coverage-heavy centers on the floor, which makes it more comfortable for Jefferson to fit a team’s need on that end. For Jefferson, another area of development is him being more comfortable when he’s switched to faster and craftier ball handlers. He’s looking vulnerable to jab steps, mostly due to being too reactive. Jefferson has shown the ability to slide his feet while balancing himself out. His decision-making to respond to jab steps and fakes will change the entire dynamic for him.
Catch-and-drive
Jefferson struggles with his last step when closing out to the perimeter. That leads to him closing too far out while giving away a driving angle for the scorer to utilize. For NBA teams, combined with his earlier-mentioned struggles in the pick-and-roll, that puts pressure on its defensive rating with him on the floor, while there is not enough offensive scoring versatility in his profile to compensate for it. Regardless, Jefferson shows enough positives to monitor throughout his development in college.
When looking at his closeouts, the last step is the main issue. In the first play, there's such an example. Jefferson closes out to the perimeter but gets lured in too far. Hereafter, he gets burned against the scorer who looked for the right driving lane and angle to exploit. However, future improvements are feasible considering how consistent and timely Jefferson’s rotations are. The intriguing part is that Jefferson processes the game much better when there’s motion around him and he has to react. That’s one of the reasons why Jefferson looks reactive at times, but he certainly isn’t passive. In the second play below, he’s keeping his assignment in control but also following the ball, whereafter he immediately rotates back to the corner to heavily contest the shot.
The main area of development to improve his closeout defense is the last step. That will make him an above-average NBA closeout defender. The third play below shows an example of what goes wrong at times. He’s not closing out at 180 degrees. In the play, he’s pivoting decently, but he entirely gives away the driving lane on the weaker side. The issue is Jefferson always gives an opponent the option to exploit one side instead of closing the angles and making his opponent beat him off the dribble. The feel for the game and awareness are there, but Jefferson lacks the positional awareness in his closeouts to immediately impact the NBA. When looking at this upperclassman status, that should be the expectation when he enters the association.
Catch-and-shoot
The consistent and timely rotations form the base for Jefferson to positively impact a defense when he’s closing out to the perimeter against spot-up shooters. When looking at the NBA context, rim pressure from the perimeter that leads to multiple feet in the paint with kick-out passes to open shooters is the simplest but most common way where teams have to answer. Quick feet and consistent rotations always help a team improve its defensive rating. And that’s where Jefferson can make a difference in the league.
However, one of the issues at hand is that Jefferson offers help defense too often. He should improve his positioning in the first play below, where he has two feet inside the paint. By staying in the middle of his assignment and the paint, Jefferson is in a much better spot to either close out to the spot-up shooter or use his wingspan and long strides to step in and take over the dribble-penetrating guard. Despite the extra pass and the three given up, Jefferson’s length is well on display as he was able to still heavily contest the shot.
The second play is an example of Jefferson making the right reads. The interior defense wasn’t set, and this left him in the coverage of both the play-finisher in the paint while leaving the corner empty. Regardless of the open three given up, it speaks to Jefferson’s composure and how well he anticipated the interior pass, but with the ball handler’s angle, it was understandable either option would succeed.
For Jefferson’s success in the NBA, it’s vital to focus on his tendency to constantly react by changing his positioning as an off-ball defender. When he’s away from the ball, It looks as if Jefferson’s anticipating what the opponent wants to achieve, rather than trusting the team's defense and reacting when it goes wrong, rather than what will go wrong. In the third and fourth plays below there are two examples where Jefferson sticks to his position inside the paint, rather than trusting his instincts and relocating based on his awareness instead of focusing on what the opponent seeks.
Cuts
Despite earlier-mentioned areas of development, Jefferson’s understanding of angles as a team defender gives his defensive profile some more body. He’s good at impacting passing lanes and consistently making his rotations. As a result, he’s averaging 1.9 steals per game, of which a majority are deflections, as Jefferson loves to play the passing angles. The understanding of motion and closing angles makes Iowa State one of college basketball’s premier programs under Coach Otzelberger, where Jefferson showed he seamlessly fits in that style of play.
We see NBA teams seeing defensive ratings take a hit each season. Therefore, plus-defenders with enough offensive creativity and prowess are the main focus points for NBA front offices to fill their rotation with. In the first play below, we see an example of Jefferson impacting the passing lanes with his timely rotations. After the cutter on the weak side was hit, he’s covering the middle of the paint to eliminate any dropoff passes. When the interior defense trapped the ball handler, Jefferson could cash in on him closing the angle to the play-finisher in the middle.
This continues in the second play, where Jefferson does well by rotating to dribble penetration while showing his incredibly fluid hips with the turnaround. The bite on the pump-fake was expected, but considering how open the opponent was underneath the basket, it’s an understandable move to fully try and take away the stand-still dunk, which turned out to be the pump-fake that caught Jefferson by surprise. As mentioned earlier, Jefferson’s tendency to be too reactive to motion led to him being lured to have one foot outside the paint. Hereafter, he got backdoored in the third play below.
However, the defensive awareness is still at a high level. As mentioned multiple times, the reactivity to opponents takes away most of the value Jefferson has as a defender. If NBA teams can help him develop on that end, it’s imminent that he’ll be an above-average defender in the association. His presence and toughness make an impact on every level. The last play is an example where his awareness leads to a timely rotation as the help-side defender to fully take the play-finisher out of balance and cause the miss.
NBA Draft Projection
Based on the strengths and areas of development mentioned in this scouting report, I project Joshua Jefferson to test the waters in the 2025 NBA Draft. His incredibly high feel for the game, excellent passing and playmaking, and efficiency around the rim are all feasible skills he brings to the next level, especially considering his physicality and toughness.
However, defensively, Jefferson masters the fundamentals but struggles to execute these in real-game situations. His tendency to be too reactionary doesn’t help his case at all. Therefore, I expect Jefferson to ultimately return to Iowa State for his senior year, whereafter he has the chance to be a top-45 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft.