Joshua Jefferson Scouting Report
Joshua Jefferson is one of college basketball's best transfer portal additions. He has changed the Cyclones' trajectory. With NBA scouts looking closely, here's everything you need to know:
Introduction
Development isn’t linear, but in Jefferson’s case, he did a fantastic job planning out his career by playing two seasons at one of college basketball’s best four-year programs, Saint Mary’s. His game improved vastly in terms of his fundamentals, where Jefferson emerged as a versatile defender in the interior while improving his defensive awareness and growing in a role to defend against multiple positions.
Jefferson is all about substance and a team-improving player first, rather than someone who stands out with flashy plays or productivity. That’s the context behind his role. As a result, he fits seamlessly into a defensively elite Iowa State team that struggled to find the right connecting pieces on offense. That’s the role he’s filling in for Coach Otzelberger and his staff, which fits seamlessly with his NBA role. That’s the emphasis of this scouting report.
Physical Profile
At 6-foot-9, Jefferson is a strongly built bruizer-typed forward physically. He has an incredibly well-filled frame with broad shoulders. While measured at 240 pounds, the biggest sell for NBA teams is his good core strength. His fluid hips help him maintain his mobility while putting up more weight and muscle over the years.
Jefferson is a good athlete and stands out with his good burst. Despite average lateral quickness, he has good and big hands that help him to utilize his physical tools as a play-finisher. His hand-eye coordination is at a high level. This benefits his passing game while showing a good touch around the rim.
There is no official measurement available, but it’s safe to say Jefferson has an above-average wingspan. His body looks NBA-ready, which is a value riser for his profile, considering he’s only in his junior year.
Offense
Passing and playmaking
Jefferson’s exceptional feel for the game on the offensive end forms the base for his case to improve a team’s offensive rating with him on the floor. His presence adds a new dynamic compared to last year’s Iowa State team. The quick decision-making, passing feel, and overall level of his game-processing make it all feasible that NBA coaching staff are willing to run plays through him. At 2.7 assists per game, he’s already showing decent returns.
The main sell is Jefferson leveraging his threat as a scorer via the post. He’s patient and uses his plus-size well to keep defenders out of reach to poke the ball away. At the same time, he’s fast to execute his reads when help defense does decide to commit. Finding cutters on a less-spaced floor compared to the NBA should intrigue all teams. In the first play below, Jefferson makes a smart relocation to make it easier to receive the ball after the handoff while creating a much better angle for himself to find the backdoor cutter.
He’s making the difference in the details. In the second possession below, he coaches his teammate, who cuts before throwing in a pass fake that indirectly makes three defenders commit. Hereafter, he pivots his right foot well by keeping the threat of him spinning and sealing alive. The execution of his read looked easier due to all the good preparation work he did. That continues in the third play, as Jefferson looks to keep his attack against the closeout alive while surveying the floor. He found the angle on the weak side after the backdoor cutter popped to the rim while dishing a one-handed bounce pass.
To scale his passing potential up, the threat of his decision-making and scoring in the post needs to continue to flourish. As a 70%+ finisher at the rim, Jefferson remains a threat. In the fourth and fifth plays below, he’s seen to throw in how scoring preparation with great footwork before he again waits out the right angle and movement around him. With fewer than two turnovers per game, Jefferson’s decision-making should earn more value as he isn’t afraid to make riskier passes.
Post-ups
To increase his post-up leverage, Jefferson’s strength and toughness are good measurements to grade how feasible his passing potential is for the NBA. Despite fewer opportunities in the post, it’s still a vital part of today’s NBA, specifically for floor-spacing and opening up cutters and shooters all over the floor. Jefferson’s well-filled frame puts him in a good position to hunt mismatches but also win ground when he’s posting up against other forwards and centers.
In the first play below, Jefferson bullies his opponent until he is two feet far inside the paint. Hereafter, he can also pivot his left foot well while loading up to attack the defender’s chest. That helped him to effectively draw the foul while almost cashing in the and-one opportunity. At four free-throw attempts per game, he converts at 78.5% it’s feasible for the Cyclones to continue to allow him to have a few of these opportunities per game, especially considering his back-to-back seasons of improving his efficiency at the charity stripe.
In the second possession, Jefferson struggled to find the much-needed separation. His decision-making to go for the tougher finish over a defender with the arms up and feet set was a bad one. It shows that Jefferson can suffer from tunnel vision when he’s looking to get his own buckets. The safer kick-out or dropoff to the center beside him, who put himself in his sight, was a better option. Staying away from bad-quality attempts like these is an area of development NBA scouts have to monitor for the remainder of the season. This continues in the baseline out-of-bounds play, where Jefferson’s aggressiveness to attack the rim is a positive, but facing up right into the help defender was simply a bad decision.
Catch-and-drive
At 6-foot-9, Jefferson lacks a few inches to be a full-time center in the NBA. Combined with today’s trend of more four or even five-out-styled offenses, Jefferson must showcase his ability to make plays out of closeouts. Creativity is the first step toward more ball touches in the NBA, which will benefit his passing potential more.
His excellent burst and footwork helped Jefferson to catch his opponent by surprise. His handles are loose but good enough to protect it from help defenders on his path. However, the area of development for him is to correct his last step, where Jefferson often doesn’t pivot well to maintain his balance before entering his finishing mode at the rim. The first play below shows an example. On top of that, he was in a position to make the extra pass, but, understandably, he challenged the defender under the rim in clear sight with the opportunity to potentially get the and-one.
The rate with which Jefferson draws fouls is a value riser of his profile. In the second possession, he pivoted well before the catch to explode to the rim, where he launched for the layup a tad too early.
However, his shooting 30% on less than two three-point attempts per game makes it challenging to effectively leverage his closeout attacks. In the third play, he reverse-pivoted, but the defender anticipated it earlier. Being a hesitant shooter is an area of focus for NBA scouts to keep track of.
Cuts
The lack of being a consistent threat as a spot-up shooter adds importance to Jefferson’s active cutting. As the graph above shows, he’s efficient around the basket to support a team’s offensive rating, which fuels the feasibility of finding his fair share of play-finishing opportunities at the next level. In the first play, Jefferson does well to bring the ball to the ground while surveying the floor. However, with three defenders crowding the paint, his tunnel vision again put him in a tough position where a dropoff pass after pivoting before the fake could have led to him earning two points for his team.
Making the extra pass after cuts is an area of development for him, despite how well his playmaking game is. For NBA scouts, it’s only adding to the positivity around his passing and fearlessness to make mistakes. In the second play, he’s immediately attempting the touch pass after seeing a cutter in the middle. Despite the deflection, that’s a good pass and read he should continue to do.
However, playing easy as a cutter remains the main focus. Jefferson’s interior presence should help him to feast off garbage points or play-finishes as shown in the third and fourth plays below. His active cutting on a better-spaced NBA floor while showing flashes of making the right decisions as the recipient of passes after cuts opens up his fit to play in a motion-heavy NBA-styled offense after college.
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