John Tonje Scouting Report
Being an All-American won't make you an NBA prospect. But John Tonje has translatable tools on both ends that help him fit into a role. Here's 3K+ words on why we might see him in the association:
John Tonje (#9, Wisconsin): Senior, 6'5"
Shooting Guard/Small Forward— Born: Apr 23, 2001 (23 years old)
Introduction
As a four-year player at Colorado State, Tonje developed from a fringe role player to a respected double-digit-scoring starter. Hereafter, he transferred to Missouri, where he had to medically redshirt. But, Tonje found a match made in heaven at Wisconsin. His fifth-year campaign ended in him earning All-American honors. While scoring close to 20 points per game, he carried Wisconsin to an unexpected season, ending up with the Badgers as a protected seed in the NCAA Tournament. Durability after a recurring injury is largely mitigated, considering Tonje played in all 37 games while totaling close to 1,200 minutes played.
For upperclassmen, production gains much more value, and the way Tonje dominated the Big Ten in his role makes it feasible for him to scale his role down in the NBA. There are areas to work on, with a questionable fit as a defender. Regardless, defensively, the context matters, and Tonje has the offensive skillset to stick in the league. The emphasis of this scouting report is to describe the ultimate role for Tonje to thrive at the next level and how feasible this role is.
Physical Profile
At 6-foot-5, Tonje is built like an NFL linebacker. He has broad shoulders and an incredibly well-filled frame. His game relies on strength and advantage creation. As a result, he’s heavy-footed which causes issues with quicker and smaller opponents. But the other side of the coin is that Tonje plays much taller and stronger than expected from a two-guard. The positional versatility is a positive.
He has decent length. There is no official measurement available, but his wingspan should be in the range of 6-foot-7. Regardless, Tonje is a good athlete with great core strength. His combination of balance and footwork opens up room to grow from a volume shooter to a complete option in the NBA. However, his strong build costs him some of the verticality, which gives him issues when closing out as a defender. Regardless, the NBA-ready body and positional versatility are two positives Tonje’s physical tools offer.
Defense
Catch-and-shoot
Despite being heavier-footed, Tonje has decent close-out speed. There’s a lack of burst but decent lateral quickness after that in his closeouts against spot-up shooters. However, the potential differentiator here is increasing his reactionary speed. Tonje’s processing is often slow. The first play is shown twice to point out a few details and areas of improvement. Tonje is often too reactionary as a defender. He’s doing well not to ball-watch during the play while also colliding with the cutting five. Because he’s too reactionary, he missed a clear path to bank on the ball handler giving two opportunities to Tonje to reach in and poke the ball away. Instead, he allowed the bailout to pass leading to an NBA-ranged three.
But a feasible part of his closeouts is visible in his footwork. Tonje’s good at keeping his balance, and that’s his pure focus combined with closing out at 180 degrees. He doesn’t hold great length, nor has the athleticism to close out quickly while showing vertical pop. That leaves the vital part of closing out timely while balancing out his feet to ensure he can elevate for his shot contest in the best way, especially the 180-degree closeout is a positive in Tonje’s profile, with the fourth play below giving an example of Tonje correcting his positioning with the side step before raising his hand up to contest. These are the areas he has to clean up to effectively close out against shooters on an NBA floor.
Pick-and-roll
Tonje has decent screen navigation but lacks the speed to keep ball handlers in front of him, especially when he’s in the process of fighting through screens. The positive and scalable part of his NBA role is Tonje’s good habit of diving between the screener and ball handler. In the first play below, he recognized the incoming ball screen in the drag well but didn’t count on the ball handler switching sides with a wide-open driving lane in the middle. Regardless, Tonje made a good decision but lacked the fluid hips and burst to move with the ball handler. Eventually he used his experience and basketball IQ to recognize the reach-in possibility to generate the steal and transition opportunity.
In the second play below, Tonje shows another example of toughness and strength by using his tags to keep the screener out of the way. However, the other side of the coin here is that he’s not able to fully use his strength on the ball handler to avoid fouling. As a result, he’s lacking in speed to keep up the drive while again allowing a clear basket at the rim. The heavy footiness and lack of speed are legitimate concerns for his NBA role. However, Tonje needs to work on always trying to dive between the screener and the ball handler. The third play shows a higher pick-and-roll, and with Tonje dropping, the screener locked him in, allowing the wide-open pull-up three above the break. He’s good at navigating through screens but when he’s stuck, giving up separation is imminent, with the fourth play showing another example.
Catch-and-drive
As a closeout defender, Tonje has the right fundamentals, focusing on keeping assignments at 180 degrees. But he’s rushing his closeouts, where he’s balancing out on his last step but always needs a correction. His lack of burst makes it challenging for Tonje to defend against closeout attackers. It’s a clear part of an opponent’s scouting report to attack him, knowing it’s more likely than not that Tonje’s team defense will collapse. Regardless, there’s enough substance to his game for Tonje to close out against stronger and taller wings in the NBA.
In the first play below, Tonje has to work on his positioning as he closes out while giving away the baseline. The tag isn’t enough to maintain his positioning at the ball handler. Given his physical limitations, Tonje has to make up for it by always closing out the right way without giving away driving angles to ensure he can use his strength as leverage to stick to his man attacking the closeout. The second possession below shows a much better process, but the challenging part in Tonje’s defense is his rushed movement when sliding his feet, that’s the main cause for a lack of balance and hitting the deck on the play.
In the best-case scenario, Tonje keeps his man in front of him. That’s where he’s taking over control of the assignment, as his strong frame and broad shoulders make it impossible for guards and some wings to beat him physically. The third play below shows an example. Regardless of the made shot in the fourth possession below, that’s another example of Tonje using his strength to unbalance the scorer on closeouts.
Hand-offs
Considering the strength advantage, NBA coaches will want to use Tonje as a defensive weapon to respond against actions involving handoffs. His good screen navigation gains more value to properly defend and counter against switches. Regardless of the heavy footiness and lack of burst, Tonje has to continue to work on using his strength to propel and navigate through plays. In the first possession below, Tonje pushes off well against the ball screen, immediately rotating to his assignment. But the main area of development here is to be more aggressive without fearing foul. He’s under two personal fouls in each of his six seasons so far, which is a huge sign of his lack of aggressiveness and toughness in such plays.
When he’s dialed in and gets the coverage against his man as shown in the second and third play, Tonje has to improve his defensive footwork by sliding his feet better. In the second play, he keeps his balance and cleanly contests the shot, but rushed footwork often leads to a lack of balance and him eventually being crossed over in the third play.
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Offense
Catch-and-shoot
At 38.8% shooting from three on six attempts per game, Tonje leads the Big Ten in made downtown shots at 85. That’s his calling card in the NBA: shooting. His strength and decent creativity are the base to attack closeouts but to earn and hold his leverage, the shot has to continue to fall at the next level. The numbers feel sustainable, considering the consistent and good shot process before his release. Tonje’s physicality and shooting prowess give him a unique selling point compared to his peers, regardless of the defensive deficiencies he has to overcome.
Tonje’s shot process looks slow, but is mostly compensated for with the quick rising and high-arcing release. He has his feet set immediately while taking a tad too long to bend his knees. I’m not a fan of prospects bringing the ball down before they power up, but in Tonje’s case, he’s so fluid in rising while relying on his core strength that it takes away all doubt. That’s the base for him to grow and thrive in the role of a volume shooter at Wisconsin. All four plays below show a similar pattern in the shot process. That’s what matters the most for NBA scouts.
Catch-and-drive
Tonje’s a creative scorer. He doesn’t rely on burst or speed but instead uses his craft, head-fakes, and jab steps to create angles. He has average lateral quickness at best but simply elite physical strength at the collegiate level. He uses head fakes as his primary weapon to create angles, leading to him powering over contact to increase his and-one ratio. Regardless, dribble penetration eases with solid leverage as a shooter. There’s a role for Tonje to thrive as a closeout scorer at the next level.
In the first play, Tonje powers himself to get two feet on the weak side of the paint whereafter his head-fake led to him drawing the contact while almost getting the and-one. However, Tonje often attacks the rim without a plan. He’s gambling too much on using his strength to get downhill. When it doesn’t work, he’s lacking composure and defers to rushed midrange shots, as in the second play below. On an NBA floor against better and stronger athletes, Tonje could struggle to find the same amount of paint touches as he did in college.
In the third play below, he has two tries until the midrange floater occurs. It’s purely a lack of speed, where the strength doesn’t always compensate for it. That’s what NBA coaches have to navigate through in deciding if Tonje gets enough runway to make plays out of closeouts to support a team’s offensive rating. To succeed as a shooter in the NBA, he has to have a form of a double-threat to make it difficult for the defender to decide to take away his shot or to adjust to his closeout attacks instead.
Handoffs
At close to nine free throws per game and a conversation rate of over 90%, Tonje’s at the top of foul generators in college basketball. NBA games are won by the margins, and maximizing possessions while forcing opponents into fouls is a common strategy teams use. Therefore, creative guards are much-wanted commodities. Tonje’s not the athlete but makes up for creativity, strength, and toughness to keep finding ways to get paint touches. That’s the role Tonje has to earn by continuing to be a way above-average shooter.
It’s feasible that he can be a double-digit scorer off the bench if everything clicks. Tonje’s gift of drawing fouls puts him in a good position to elevate a team’s offensive rating. That’s a must to compensate for his defensive liabilities, and Tonje has enough weapons for it. In the first play below, Tonje powers himself to the rim while defended by three. The main area of development here is to make the extra pass, which is two wide-open options on the perimeter awaiting the kick-out pass.
Another area of development is to focus on high-quality shots. NBA teams won’t ask Tonje to carry their offense and get creative with stepback threes. Therefore, the second and third plays below, where the outcome was a forced jumper off the dribble, is what Tonje has to lessen to stick in the NBA. The fourth play below shows the primary value, with an improvement of court vision and passing reads being the missing ingredient.
Passing, ball-moving and playmaking
While averaging under two assists per game, Tonje has a neutral assist-to-turnover ratio. At Wisconsin, he’s the main offensive engine. Therefore, reps to be utilized as a passer and playmakers are scarce. That led to Tonje developing the habit of being more selfish as a scorer and shooter. The NBA moves toward triple-threats on all positions, where Tonje shows the ability to dribble and shoot but doesn’t often look to make the extra pass. That makes translating to the NBA challenging, as the core is playing a motion-based and faster-paced game. Therefore, scaling down his role while having fewer ball touches should help Tonje adjust and embrace his role as a connective guard.
For Tonje that’s utilizing his advantage creation, with the strength being the main weapon. In the first and third plays below, Tonje’s dribble penetration has helped the defense immediately arrive. Hereafter, Tonje has shown the capability to execute his read with the kick-out pass leading to a three-pointer. That’s the underrated value his strength offers. He’s also a quick decision-maker using his size to his advantage, with the fourth play showing an example with the overhead entry pass. Tonje won’t stand out as a playmaker in the NBA, but he has to show connective passing and quick decision-making to not pressure a team’s offensive rating too much.
NBA Draft Projection
Based on the strengths and areas of development mentioned in this scouting report, I project John Tonje to be an undrafted free agent. The defensive lapses are unignorable. The potentially elite shooting always holds value in the NBA, especially with most coming off the catch. But supportive tasks such as connective passing or proper closeout attacks aren’t consistent. On top of the defense, the lack of speed and lateral quickness continues to give issues. Regardless, the tools that are elite are much-wanted commodities for NBA scouts. Therefore, I expect Tonje to earn a two-way contract after Summer League whereafter he’ll have two more years left to grow into a sustainable role.
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