Jaylen Wells Scouting Report
After earning D2 All-American honors, Wells has shown to be ready for the highest level. The sharpshooter emerged as one of the PAC-12's top players. What's his potential NBA role? Find out below.
Making the jump from a .500 record in the CCAA conference at the Division II level to a PAC-12 contender is an eye-popping detail in Wells’ career so far. The shooting specialist earned a starting role right after New Year’s Day, and the Cougars went 13-3 with Wells logging more than 34 minutes per game in that span.
After going 1-for-10 from three in his last game, he still averages 42.0% on 4.6 attempts per game. With his consistent rebounding and ball-moving duties, Wells shows signs of being able to fill a low-usage role at the NBA level.
Physical Profile
At 6’8”, Wells has to fill his frame more to play another role than a wing at the next level. He’s fluid with his movement and a quick decision-maker with the ball in his hands. Although he doesn’t look to attack the rim, Wells does like to challenge his opponents via post-ups.
His length immediately stood out. His wingspan comes close to seven feet, but there is no official measurement to confirm the above-mentioned. At 205 pounds, Wells should benefit from an NBA strength and condition program to be able to offer positional versatility at the next level.
Offense
In a league that values high-volume shooters, Wells has the quick-trigger release that NBA decision-makers look for in a draft prospect. He shows consistency in all of his 138 attempts this season. The most important detail is him setting his feet quickly and not lowering the ball to under his waist.
Another positive is that he reads the defensive coverages very well. He has a nag of making himself the forgotten man in sets that involve more motion, as shown in the first two plays. He also knows when to move to his spots when the defense is dialed in on his shooting threat, as shown in the last play below.
When playing out of closeouts, Wells prefers his jumper over attacking the rim. While you don’t always have to attack the closeout. Wells shows a lack of rim presence with 35 rim attempts to 96 midrange shots. However, this won’t hurt his long-term potential as he consistently shows he doesn’t settle for bad shots.
Instead, he uses his footwork very well to create separation from a standstill as the defense is on their heels due to his shooting threat. He has been shown to attack the interior when a driving lane occurs, but feels more comfortable with his pull-up jumper from the elbows, as shown in the first two plays below.
In the last play, Wells attacks the closeout after his opponent aggressively sets his pivot foot to try and lure him to the strong side. Most of his interior jumpers come from the mid-post to the short corner area. This leads to defenses having to offer help, opening up the potential of his passing game in the future.
At 1.0 assists per game, Wells’ shooting gravity hasn’t translated to his playmaking yet. However, he has shown a consistent pattern of composure when teams double him when catching the ball at his sweet spots. Being able to pass out of coverages results in Wells finding shooters, instead of bailing the defense out by making a rushed pass.
On a better-spaced NBA floor, Wells shows flashes of being able to play as a wing ball-mover despite the numbers suggesting the contrary. With 10 assists in his last seven games, the production improved compared to his season average, which is a result of teams scheming to limit Well’s open three-point attempts.
With the NBA’s trend of more plays involving hand-offs, Wells’ versatility as a scorer offers a better feasibility test due to him challenging himself more on these play types. What stood out is despite his developing frame, Wells has enough strength to create separation on his drives by initiating the contact, as shown in the first play.
In the latter stages of PAC-12 conference play, we see teams packing the paint against the Cougars more often than not. Wells’ jumper-heavy scoring diet makes him a premier weapon in forcing defenses to settle for his preferred shots. At the NBA level, this is an area of his game that’ll translate very well. Especially considering that he’s more than a capable ball-mover to find open teammates when his opponents allow him to.
Being able to create open looks as the pick-and-roll ball handler is an indicator of untapped potential for shooters in the long run. An NBA team will value handles and decision-making to trust a prospect with ball touches during their career with them.
In Wells’ case, his shooting gravity leads to teams playing out of the paint, opening room for him to utilize drives to collapse the defense. The lack of a quick first step or burst is something an NBA decision-maker has to keep in mind when evaluating his profile. However, what stood out in his attempts as the pick-and-roll ball handler is Wells’ ability to defer to his floater, which will be a valuable weapon for him in the long run.
In the first play below, Wells decelerates for the dropping big man to lose his balance, opening the lane for the bounce pass to the roller. However, due to him dropping a tad too much, Wells trusts his instincts to cash in on the floater from the foul line.
Defense
When evaluating Wells’ defensive profile, his potential versatility in guarding multiple positions stood out. With his broad shoulders, Wells can develop into a strong plus-sized NBA wing who can guard against forwards in the future.
In the second play, we see him showcasing his defensive footwork and timing which led to the tough midrange fadeaway, opening up a possibility for his team to run and get a quick bucket in transition. In the first play, Wells is matched up against a physical guard, who he successfully kept outside of the paint. Despite his body not being fully developed yet, we see Wells’ strength pop out in him guarding against post-ups.
Combine that with his defensive instincts as a help defender in the interior as shown in the third play below, which makes his untapped potential as a multi-positional defender even more interesting.
In a switch-heavy NBA, Wells likely will have to show that he can make decisions in pick-and-roll coverages. An area of development for Wells is his screen navigation. He doesn’t show consistently that he can track down incoming screens to anticipate getting stuck in screens, as shown in the first play below.
However, what should intrigue an NBA decision-maker is his excellent balance when absorbing contact near the rim. Whether it’s the scorer aggressively driving and initiating contact, Wells’ upper-body strength is good enough to be able to deter shots successfully near the rim.
On a better-spaced NBA floor, drives to collapse defenses are a main weapon to find open shooters on the perimeter. Wells’ composure and almost zero biting on fakes on drives make him a candidate to be a pick-and-roll defender in both the interior against the screener or against the ball handler, especially when he gets stronger in the next few years.
One of the biggest areas of development for Wells is that he tends to let the offense dictate his off-ball movements. In the first play below, Wells’ is dialed in on what the ball handler is doing near the elbow, while the play is being dictated by the big man above the break, especially considering the drop defense against a five-out offense.
Simple reads such as these are must-improvements for Wells to be able to play on an NBA floor consistently. However, a positive that partially mitigates the above-mentioned is his excellent awareness in plays where his assignment doesn’t hold the most gravity in terms of plays being run for him.
With timely rotations, Wells uses his length to play passing lanes to gather deflections and steals. On a better-spaced NBA floor, those are must-haves to grow into the role of a reliable team defender.
While we see Wells not biting on fakes as an interior defender, that changes when he has to close out on shooters. However, this doesn’t lead to the thought of him having a bad feel for the game. Wells needs to work on getting rid of the bad habit of trying to avoid the shooter launching the three at all costs.
In some occasions, the team’s defense should close out less aggressively, and live with giving up on less contested threes than in the first two plays below. Mostly for rebounding purposes. At over 6 rebounds per game, Wells’ is one of the best wing rebounders in the PAC-12 conference. His guarding too far away from the interior makes his team more vulnerable to second-chance opportunities.
The third play also shows Wells’ shot-heavy diet translating to his tactics as a closeout defender. Especially on an NBA floor with more space to operate with, guarding too deep on the perimeter leads to him bailing out the offense by allowing the shooter to find open teammates easier, or to eliminate his closeout with a simple fake. What stood out is that his length and balance allowed him to recover and meet his opponent on his floater attempt.
Against spot-up shooters, Wells’ will to make extra rotations stand out. In his first season as an upperclassman, his experience on the Division II level is clear in the way he’s reading the game as a team defender. Fundamentally, his way of setting his feet to contest and not being shaken out of balance stands out. This makes his length even more useful due to him contesting shots easier while avoiding his closeout being attacked.
The first play is an excellent example. He rotates after the spot-up shooter has the mismatch against the big man who lost his balance near the free-throw line. His rotating opens room for the big man to rotate to Wells’ original assignment to mitigate the risk of the extra pass.
In the second play, we see Wells’ value as a leader stand out more. He’s actively coaching his teammates with their rotations, where he ends up cleaning the lack of rotations near the weak side up with a good contest, considering the amount of ground he had to cover.
NBA Draft Projection
Despite the jumper-heavy scoring diet, Wells’ three-point shot is one of the most consistent and reliable in the whole country. As the season progressed, he improved in utilizing his shooting gravity by improving his passing game, leading to his assist numbers increasing in the last ten games. Outside of the shooting, Wells’ is fairly raw and needs another season of reps to prepare himself fully for NBA basketball.
As a team defender, he gives NBA decision-makers the most value. After he turned himself into one of the Cougars’ most important players, Wells got more comfortable in taking his role as a leader on the court. His awareness as an off-ball defender combined with his decision-making make it feasible for him to be able to become an above-average team defender in the future.
As a closeout defender, Wells has the most to improve. His jumper-heavy shot diet leads to him treating opponent shooters the way opponents are treating him. Wells needs to improve on making it harder for shooters to eliminate his closeouts with fakes. Considering how well his rebounding is, Wells, being on the perimeter after a field goal attempt lowers the value of his production on the glass.
Considering the NBA readiness of his jumper, combined with the important flashes of his team defense, Wells is currently the biggest sleeper among college upperclassmen. Therefore, I expect him to test the waters this summer and collect feedback from NBA teams on what he has to improve in his senior year. However, considering the above-mentioned elements it’s in Wells’ best interest to improve in a faster-paced game, making me lean toward him playing G League minutes over college basketball.
Therefore, I project Wells to eventually declare for this year’s NBA Draft. With the lack of shooting depth in this class, he has the opportunity to be an early pick in the second round this summer.