Jaxson Robinson Scouting Report
A consistent shooter with untapped potential is a well-regarded commodity for NBA franchises. What'll be his early-career role? What can be the outcome? Find out more below.
With two years of SEC experience in his bag, Robinson transferred to BYU as a junior. At 8.5 points per game in 28 minutes he had limited ball touches and was mostly used as a spot-up shooter.
His usage went up early in his senior year which opened the path for Robinson to be a high-volume scorer. How much of it is translatable to the NBA? What will be his realistic long-term career path? These will be the points of emphasis of this scouting report.
Physical Profile
At 6-foot-7, the first thing that stands out is his 7-foot-2 wingspan. Despite his slim frame, Robinson moves fluidly with and without the ball in his hands. He has solid handles which opens up a more diverse scoring package at the next level.
At 193 pounds, Robinson doesn’t look comfortable when absorbing contact on offense, which makes him more selective in deciding when to drive to the basket. An advantage of his slim frame is that he’s comfortable playing with limited space around him. He understands angles very well and is keen on creating advantages under the pressure of the defense.
Offense
Being a high-volume three-point shooter will be Robinson’s calling card at the NBA level. At 6.7 tries per game, he’s in the Big 12’s top 6 in both three-pointers attempted and scored. Besides his high volume, the diverse shot diet immediately stood out.
Robinson shows he can shoot from way beyond the NBA three-point line, as shown in the second play below, or use a pass-fake or stutter move to create extra separation when shooting off-the-catch.
The shooting release is consistent. In some possessions, he took a tad too long to load up for his jumper, especially from the corner as shown in the first play below. His release on the other hand looks faster than average, which is much-needed against quicker closeouts at the NBA level.
When making plays out of closeouts, Robinson is consistent in getting to his spots from the midrange, where he shoots a tad under 40%. That’s a good number when considering that of every five attempts, four are self-created looks mostly by exploiting closeouts.
Robinson is an accomplished scorer in an off-ball role. His solid ball handling combined with his footwork makes it tougher for defenders to predict which way he’ll use to drive to the rim. He has a quick first step and together with using his pivot foot to deceive defenders, Robinson is effective in creating separation to get his spots.
Whether it’s from the short corner or closer to the mid-post, Robinson shows enough verticality on his pull-up jumpers. Combined with his long wingspan it makes it tougher for defenders to effectively contest his shots.
With the immense level of detail an average NBA scouting report contains, staying unpredictable is one of the tougher things to accomplish. Robinson shows signs of translating his game as an unpredictable scorer at the next level.
Taking into account that he’ll likely have an off-ball role at the early stages of his career, Robinson will have to continue to show his willingness to shoot. The first play below summarizes his decision-making very well. No driving lane was available nor an opportunity to make a quick pass, so he pulled up from the corner.
Having true NBA wing size helped him to see over the defense. Robinson being able to combine that with his excellent positioning makes him tough to guard; the second play below being an example.
In conference play, all teams know almost every play their opponent will run. With Robinson’s signature move being him driving to the direction he sets his pivot foot, he sells the defense the idea of him utilizing the ball screen. This opened the driving lane for him and ended up opening the driving lane resulting in an impressive dunk.
Robinson understands angles so well it opens up the path for him to be a pick-and-roll ball handler at the next level. An early concern NBA decision-makers have to take in mind is that he’s reluctant to attack the rim. This leads to him tending to bail defenses out by settling for midrange jumpers.
The midrange is a strength in his plays out of closeouts, but with the ball in his hands, teams are more prepared for him as most opponents react by playing drop or crowd the paint, knowing he’ll settle for midrange jumpers.
Despite finishing at a 77.5% rate on 40 rim attempts this season, that’s something Robinson needs to work on. Being able to track high-quality looks at the rim is a strength, and NBA teams love that. But to develop into a long-term wing scorer, Robinson has to increase the amount of generated rim attempts to improve his draft stock.
The early signs of improvement are visible. Robinson’s solid handles lead to him being able to dribble out of most coverages teams throw at him. However, with only 1.1 free throws attempted per game, his activity at the rim will decide how much NBA teams will trust him to have the ball touches he needs.
At 1.6 assists per game against 1.5 turnovers, the numbers indicate that Robinson is mostly focused on his production rather than involving his teammates. That’s an area of growth for Robinson in the latter stages of his senior year.
With him having to carry the scoring load for BYU, it explains the low assist numbers. Looking at the execution of his reads Robinson can likely surpass his current amount of assists per game at the next level.
In the first play below, Robinson uses the gentle stutter move after using the screen to open the driving lane for his big man. That’s a classic move pick-and-roll playmakers use. He completes the play by luring help defense before the drop-off showing he can execute simple reads.
The second play shows the willingness to immediately pass over the top after seeing his big man gaining an advantage in the post-up near the mid-post. This is an example showing Robinson can play within the flow of the offense as a creator for others. His instincts are there but his current role doesn’t require him to serve as a playmaker as much as he could. This is something NBA decision-makers have to consider when evaluating his profile.
Defense
As a wing defender, being able to close and guard the perimeter is a must-have to secure a long-term NBA career. Robinson shows decent defensive footwork, which opens the path to defend at the next level.
But he also tends to react too quickly to stutter moves opponents throw at him. This makes him more vulnerable to losing his balance, as shown in the first play below.
However, Robinson did consistently show the right things, especially when closing out on opponents. He aggressively places his pivot foot and doesn’t shy away from initiating contact. With only 1.6 personal fouls per 26 minutes, he shows he can defend without unnecessary fouls.
Another area that’ll serve him well is that he’s making opponents beat him off the dribble. He has solid lateral quickness and slides his feet well enough to keep opponents in front of him. That combined with his long wingspan are the building blocks of his being able to turn into a plus-defender at the next level.
As an off-ball defender, Robinson recognizes rotations and does well to stay close to his assignments. That’s a must-have to succeed as a team defender in the NBA. Whether it’s him tagging cutters or when he’s keeping track of the play followed by timely rotations, it’s a big reason why BYU is a top-5 team in the halfcourt.
One of the areas of development for Robinson is to be more active as a rebounder. With 2.5 rebounds per game at 6’7”, that’s a number that has to go up to be able to maintain neutral team rebounding numbers at the next level.
His team likes to play fast, and missed three-pointers are an opportunity to find easy transition buckets. This is a part of the reason for the low rebounding numbers. However, when evaluating his film, Robinson consistently shows plays where his boxing out could have led to fewer offensive rebounds allowed.
Another area of development for Robinson is his help defense. Commonly, young prospects tend to overhelp, leaving at least one opponent wide open most of the time. The first play is an example of Robinson doing so.
Despite his solid defensive awareness, Robinson’s perimeter-oriented game can subconsciously lead to him playing closer to the three-point line, making him more vulnerable to backdoor cutters, as shown in the second play.
This is not a major concern in the long run, but something NBA teams have to monitor when preparing him for their defensive schemes. The NBA’s three-second call and more spacing make it a must-have for Robinson to get rid of this habit as he gets more reps.
In a switch-heavy NBA game, being able to serve as a pick-and-roll defender is a must-have. With franchises focusing on collecting versatile defenders, the physical traits are an advantage for Robinson to separate himself.
What stood out is that he’s a decent screen navigator, as his awareness helps him to react to incoming screens timely. However, he gives up too much driving lane while he avoids ball screens. With help defense not arriving on time, it allows teams to find good looks, as shown in the second play.
However, in time when Robinson fills out his frame, he’ll be able to fight through screens more effectively, as shown in the third play. His absorbing the contact near the free-throw line, followed by the hard contest is the type of defense Robinson can play. But he’s not consistent yet.
NBA Draft Projection
The shot is the NBA-ready product that Robinson can sell at a high price on draft night. His shooting versatility and unpredictable character of his game when playing out of closeouts or creating his offense are the first building blocks of a scoring NBA wing.
Despite low assist numbers, Robinson shows he can execute basic reads and contribute to the scoring of others. This makes him a more all-round player early on in his career and gives him a better chance to maintain a team’s offensive rating, thus increasing the opportunities to find minutes.
With limited depth among shooters in this class, teams will be intrigued by Robinson’s physical traits which increases his long-term potential. Consistent shooting combined with his wingspan, handles, and fluidity is another area he separates himself from most of his peers.
His lack of rim-attempts is a concern NBA decision-makers should consider. And as a defender, there are areas to clean up, with his tendency to overhelp being an example. However, the building blocks to be a plus defender are there. Especially if he will fill out his frame more in the coming years.
Based on the above-mentioned Robinson is projected to be a top 40 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.