Jaden Akins Scouting Report
Michigan State is more than ready for their title run, and their guard play is a big reason why. A key factor for the Spartans? Jaden Akins. What's the intrigue for the NBA? Find out more below.
Knockdown shooters that stand out with their defensive presence are becoming a more important commodity in the NBA. In a season where the Spartans will battle for a second Tom Izzo championship, Jaden Akins is expected to continue where he left off: a knockdown shooter — 42.2% on 3.9 three-point attempts per game — that can handle the opponent’s toughest assignment on the defensive end.
Physical Profile
At 6’4”, Akins has gotten much stronger in his first two seasons at Michigan State. He’s a great athlete with an explosive first step. After dealing with injury issues last summer, Akins quickly recovered and found his rhythm back with which he dominated at the high school level. Having the athleticism is one thing, but being able to use it to his advantage is what makes Akins a legitimate prospect for the 2024 NBA Draft.
Offense
The first thing that stood out when watching Akins is that he barely needs touches to impact the team’s offense. With Hoggard and Walker, Michigan State has a crowded backcourt, forcing them to play a 3-guard line-up where Akins mostly guards the opponent’s wings.
Being fundamentally sound is a must-have quality to play severe minutes under Coach Izzo. And that’s what Akins is showing for two seasons now. What I like is that Akins is a quick decision-maker and within his role, he’s being used as a ball-mover instead of a playmaker, as shown in the two plays below.
He’s buying into his role to the fullest and it’s clear how well he processes the game. Especially with a faster-paced NBA game, these are the qualities that are needed to play as a so-called ‘connector piece’ on the wings. At 190 pounds, Akins has added more strength to his frame, which benefits his own scoring game in bunches.
Whether it’s via the pick-and-roll or in isolation, Akins is using his explosive first step to his advantage when creating advantages over his defenders. What caught my attention is that he’s reading the defense very well, instead of showing any form of tunnel vision when chasing his points.
With the Spartans playing four out, Akins is utilizing the ball screen to force the big man to play drop coverage, which leads to help defense being needed. His decision-making was the key factor in this play, with a bad-spaced floor, Akins was either to attack the rim or showcase his mid-range pull-up game.
At the NBA level, I expect Akins to receive secondary playmaking duties if he’s able to showcase his ability to create via the pick-and-roll more consistently this season. One of the early red flags in Akins’ profile is his finishing numbers at the rim: 44%.
However, I’m leaning toward valuing the statistics less due to his ability to show he can get good looks at the rim. The low finishing percentages were partially caused by his injury issues which he dealt with in both seasons. Another aspect is that Akins wasn’t consistent with his shot selection, especially in his freshman season.
Therefore, when closely looking at his recent performance, Akins is looking more comfortable attacking the rim, resulting in a finishing rate of 60% at the rim in his last three games.
When looking at his NBA role, inevitably, Akins will mostly have to play as a spot-up shooter who’ll occasionally attack closeouts and serve as a ball-mover with secondary playmaking duties.
With Jaden Akins, the reason why he’s such a good three-point shooter is that he gives opposing scouting reports a dilemma with how to stop him at the elbows and corners. When he’s given enough room, he’ll shoot the three with confidence, but even on good closeouts, Akins’ technique gives him advantages over his defenders.
In the two plays below, I noticed how Akins slightly moves towards the ball, and his footwork allows him to quickly change sides before the burst. Another advantage is that he’s reading the defense at all times. Deciding to take what he’s given is something or make the extra pass is something that a lot of his peers will struggle with early in their careers, but with Jaden Akins, I’m confident that it will translate early on in his NBA career.
Despite the limited sample size in pick-and-roll playmaking, that’s an area of untapped potential at the next level. When looking at his handles, the improvement in the last two seasons is there. However, I did see Akins pick up his dribble a few times, but it often was unforced; an early red flag on that end.
However, Akins makes up for it with his decision-making under pressure. When opposing defenses send a double team or trap him near the corners, his composure combined with the handles shows that he’s ready for more on-ball reps.
With 61 assists to 63 turnovers in the last two seasons, the low sample size is the reason for the slightly negative assist-to-turnover ratio. When tracking his decision-making with the ball in his hands, I concluded that the numbers don’t tell the whole story and that the potential to improve as a playmaker is there.
In today’s NBA, two early indicators give franchises more confidence that a drafted player has the chance to succeed and they should invest their valuable playing minutes and developing time.
The first one is knowing how to use athleticism in live actions, whether to create advantages when it comes to creating your own offense, but also how to match the intensity physically and still find a way that's beneficial to their abilities on the court, the so-called ‘functional athleticism’, which has been shown above.
The second one is rebounding. The saying “no rebounds, no rings” is something that I refer to often when evaluating prospects. The main reason is that a lack of rebounding combined with mistakes rookies often make can cost a team enough offensive rating to a point where it isn’t beneficial to play a rookie in games that mean the most.
When looking at Jaden Akins, the 4.0 rebounds per game and 13.2% defensive rebounding rate confirm what I saw on film. As per ShotQuality.com, Michigan State ranked 247th in both offensive and defensive rebounding last season. However, Akins has been one of their bright spots on that end.
Whether it’s using his physicality in box-outs, or knowing where to locate himself, Akins has the instincts and already knows how to use his physical tools to his advantage on that end. What I like to see is that it doesn’t go to the expense of his defensive assignment; a correlation we see often in above-average rebounding numbers.
The offensive part of his profile has enough areas on top of his excellent three-point shooting to the point where I believe it will translate in the NBA. Especially after another solid season where the Spartans aim for a national championship.
Defense
On the defensive end, Jaden Akins is a very good point-of-attack defender. One of his areas of development after his freshman season was to lower his number of fouls; 3.4 per 40 minutes. The main reason behind his fouling was being over-aggressive, especially in one-on-one situations.
In his sophomore season, Akins developed two important NBA skills and managed to lower his personal fouls to 2.2 per 40 minutes while embracing a bigger role on defense. The first one is his ability to fight through screens, which is a must-have to be able to play long minutes in playoff settings at the NBA level.
As a screen navigator, I like how Akins uses his fundamentals to his advantage. As always, he reads his opponents before making a decision. Watch closely as Reneau’s pivot foot is a bit further than usual, which indicates extra movement on the pindown, resulting in Akins dodging the contact by sliding past him via the baseline. His quickness then allows him to intercept the Hood-Schifino pass and punish the Hoosiers in transition.
Playing for Coach Izzo has greatly improved Akins’ pick-and-roll defense, with his screen navigation being one of his best attributes. What immediately stood out is that Akins’ isn’t afraid of the moment and demands the toughest assignments on the defensive end. At 6’4”, Akins has the size to guard the one and two spots in the NBA.
Even when opponents have more size in the backcourt, I am confident that Akins will be a positive for his team’s perimeter defense. However, one of the red flags in his profile is his tendency to overhelp on the defensive end.
This often leads to late closeouts or simply too much ground to recover, resulting in wide-open opponent three-point shots. However, the reason is more related to his will to make winning plays on the defensive end, rather than his inability to make the right reads and rotate on defense.
In a switch-heavy NBA game, Akins already takes away opponents running screen actions and pindowns to get his assignment open on the perimeter. That’s not the area at risk here. But with the increasing amount of great passers among big men, the NBA game is designed for more short-roll playmaking and plays where the opposing bigs are being used as playmaking hubs, leading to the guards having to use their help defense to neutralize the threat of the offense.
With an expected bigger role next season, this is an area Akins has to prove he can improve as a help defender. Because he’s already so accomplished in other areas, this provides him with a great opportunity to set himself apart from other guard prospects in this class.
In general, Akins’ long wingspan allows him to disrupt passing lanes and as an off-ball defender, he’s showing his aggressiveness on that end in bunches. Occasionally, this can lead to him losing track of his assignment, allowing backdoor cuts or open shooters in the corner. Despite this being a common deficiency for a lot of guard and wing prospects, in the long run, it can create issues on a better-spaced NBA floor. The clip below shows an example that led to an open three after the Spartans tied the game after an 11-2 run.
In isolation, Akins is one of the best defenders in the country. His combination of using his athleticism and strength to absorb contact and completely lock down his assignment is what made him a highly touted prospect in the state of Michigan during his high school days.
For NBA franchises, this is a translatable part of his game, especially in playoff settings. Despite the amount of field goal attempts via isolation plummeting in the last 20 years, it’s still one of the most important parts of the game in crunch time. Akins’ will to win is one of the intangibles that’s opening a door for him to become a great defender at the NBA level, especially after improving the above-mentioned areas.
NBA Draft Projection
Within his projected NBA role, Akins offers enough intangibles and scalability of his game to the point where the untapped potential will get franchises intrigued. Especially because they are taking in a great shooter with a resumé to show for with 41% on 166 three-point attempts in his first two college seasons.
On the defensive end is where Akins will earn his money in the NBA. Especially if he’ll improve as an off-ball defender. If that’s the case in a bigger role on a Michigan State squad that’s in contention for the title, I have no doubt in my mind that he will be the next Spartan guard who’ll have his name called on draft night in the first round after Gary Harris in 2014.