Izaiyah Nelson Scouting Report
From mid-major success to growing into a feasible NBA role. I'm tremendously high on Nelson's chances to make it at the next level. Here's all you must know about his role and long-term potential:
Izaiyah Nelson (#35, South Florida): Senior, 6’10”
Power Forward/Center — Born: Oct 1, 2003 (22 years old)
Introduction
While I remember Izaiyah Nelson’s fantastic junior campaign at Arkansas State, earning him All-Sun Belt honors after putting up double-digit scoring and close to nine rebounds, the toughest mid-major center in the country continued to add to his game. He followed the coaching staff to South Florida where he won the American, and making him the de facto Conference Player of the Year.
He scored close to sixteen points per game, averaging more than 2.5 dunks per game and basically living in the paint on both ends. Nelson’s toughness is the testimony to how he’s embracing the game, and where he’s improved the margins year after year. Growth is essential in evaluating NBA talent, and there’s no doubt in my mind we’ll see him have a long-term NBA career. This scouting report emphasizes a feasible NBA role for him to grow into while also showcasing his long-term potential.
Physical Profile
At 6-foot-10, Nelson’s high and consistent motor, broad shoulders and incredibly well-filled frame forms the base for his NBA ready body. He’s a hard-nosed rebounder with a great core and fluid hips. His decent vertical pop and smooth footwork on both ends brings a ton of value in the intangibles. He’s long and strong and should measure out with a +5/+6 inch wingspan in the summer events.
Nelson can still add to his body at 218 pounds. While going through an NBA strength and condition program, he’ll continue to emphasize paint dominance both as a shot-blocker while also using his big and quick hands to effectively play the angles in passing lanes. Nelson possesses decent speed as well, especially laterally which opens up the opportunity to play multiple coverages on defense in pick-and-roll while forming a weapon to defend on the three-point line in four, or even five-out schemes opponents will run.
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Defense
Pick-and-roll
Nelson plays safe in pick-and-roll defense above everything else. Great composure. He’s calm and makes good decisions, and that’s the base for his success. He knows that he has to time going over perfectly to ensure he can immediately unbalance scorers. The first play led to Nelson sticking to drop coverage in the second line after that drag screen, which gave the scoring angle away, but positioned Nelson better for the rebound. However, the second possession had him as the primary five, taking the switch timely, pivotting strongly to force the quick decision to the ball handler coming off the ball screen. The shot contest and pop out was timed perfectly.
He’s laterally fast enough to match with smaller scorers and the third play shows him using his footwork well. He slides his feet and immediately establishes contact. Despite the blow-by in the second attempt, Nelson closed the angle very well with a clean block at the rim. The fourth possession had Nelson hedge his chances with the drop, luring the shooter to take the deep three. The only issue here is that Nelson didn’t actively box out for the rebound, as his late relocation to the paint was forced because the board fell short. Changing this habit would push his good 21.3% defensive rebounding rate toward 24/25%.
Regardless, I’m more than impressed with Nelson’s skill and the feel for the game to make the right decision every time. The fifth play has him again establishing fantastic positioning which helps him to contest the shot and come up with the board despite the scorer being much faster. That’s the primary value for the NBA as he’ll be a positive factor in pick-and-roll defense and help teams improve their defensive rating.
Post-ups
A part of Nelson’s transition to the NBA is measuring the toughness and physicality. The quick feet, footwork and timing are big valuables, but he’ll have to hold his own against physical NBA forwards and energy fives. It’s not all about brute strength, but also timing and balance. The first play is a learning curve he’ll have to go through. The post-up mismatch is extended with Nelson pushed off his spot leading to the dunk after the post-entry pass. Mistakes happen, that’s why positioning is key in post-ups.
The second possession has him show the upper body strength in the post-up close to the rim, where Nelson’s unbalancing the scorer, but looking to lose his balance at the end. Regardless, his patience and upper body strength has been a big plus in the collegiate game. The third play has him calmly closing the angle, forcing the bump-in by the post scorer where he’s simply limiting angles and forcing unbalanced finishes while getting the contested rebound as well. We see a similar outcome in the fourth possession. Nelson’s composure has been so much better than every center he’s faced in the games I evaluated. Adding imminent physical improvements into account, it’s no doubt that Nelson will adjust early to the physical NBA game.
Cuts and defending away from the ball
Regarding the defense away from the ball, Nelson’s primary value is to limit the angles for play-finishers in the paint. He’s a timely help defender where he’s not caught overhelping. He’s consistent in making the right decisions and that’s a testimony to his high basketball IQ combined with his smooth footwork. The first play has him adjust to the ball handler that had to make a decision, knowing the inevitable dropoff would come. You can see Nelson anticipating to that already, closing the angle by using his upper body strength to unbalance the scorer. The second play shows a similar outcome, but that’s where he’s been pushed underneath the basket, leading to bad positioning on the adjustment.
The outcome remains the same. Even if Nelson makes a mistake, he’s quick to close that to an advantage. The third play had him miss a rotation, and it led to the opponent immediately going to the paint. Nelson’s fluid hips helped him to move, and get that block before the finisher could rise up for the dunk. The 1.4 blocks per game feel very much feasible to translate because it’s a result of him making the right decisions and impacting the angles. He’s so patient. That’s the main thing that makes Nelson great as a defender. The fourth play has him again not reacting to the inevitable pass, but simply play the angle and force the ball handler to a bad positioning upon the post-entry pass, leading to him stripping the ball away and ignite the transition look. There’s no doubt in my mind that Nelson has the feel for the game, composure and decision-making to be a positive defender in the NBA.
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Offense
Shooting off the catch
Let’s be clear. NBA fives can succeed without a three-point shot in their arsenal. It’s all about the margins, and teams have underestimated the impact of maximizing three-point attempts, thus valuing floor-stretching fives at the expense of a rim deterrants. Nelson’s not a true energy five and lob threat, which adds some weight into his three-point shot off the catch at the next level. He’ll have to be neutral to make it happen to give his team chances in improving the margins when NBA defenders will inevitably sag off him on the perimeter, allowing the open three.
Nelson went from 1 attempted three as a freshman to 49 as a senior. The sample size is negligible, but has enough value to project the value of his shooting form and process. The first play is promising, with a smooth pivot with his left. But he’s standing on his toe with the right foot, not optimizing the balance before the shot. That has to change. On the other hand, Nelson’s keeping the ball high and rises up decently. However, he’s not naturally releasing the ball, but giving it a gentle push instead. The second possession shows a similar outcome, but with much better body control. He’s pushing it off his hands instead of a comfortable release. That’s mostly because he’s rising his shoulders so much instead of letting them relax in the process.
Regardless. That high shooting-arc and release is so promising. We see tall no-dip shooters get the volume bump in the NBA, with the Boston Celtics as an example of teams utilizing that. Nelson’s process is not perfect, but the strengths are very good. The high release makes it almost unblockable and compensates for his slow process for the most part. For the short term, working on his balance is the main thing, you can see Nelson raise his shoulders while leaning backwards in the fourth possession. Staying at 180 degrees is the primary objective. Nelson can be a neutral shooter, but the process needs work. That’s why the numbers don’t matter in his situation, even if that 14.3% was a 40% return from downtown.
Offensive rebounding and putbacks
Looking at the value for NBA teams, Nelson’s offensive rebounding is very feasible to translate to the league. We see as a result of more five-out play, that teams crashing the glass become more of an emphasis at winning nowadays. At 135 offensive rebounds, Nelson led the AAC while being fifth in the entire NCAA in that category. Elite returns, and nothing of that result has been forced. He has a great feel for positioning and the toughness underneath the basket makes him win most of the rebounding battles he’s entering, leading to a large chunk of the 80 dunks he has in the entire season.
The first play has Nelson showing dominance with the tag, not letting the assignment go until he had the positioning and both feet for elevation after that lay-up leading to the easy layin. The second possession shows a similar outcome, where Nelson is locking his assignment in his back, while creating a lane for the scorer at the rim. Good timing on the jump between two opponents to grab the board. But the scoring angle was non-existing. And that’s where Nelson needs to improve his game. Kicking the ball out with nine seconds left was the only decision to make there. Prioritizing these tough potential second-chance opportunities led to him showing a 65.9% return at the rim, despite most of it being high-quality looks. That’s not a sign of bad touch, but a result of some of his shot selection after rebounds.
The third and fourth plays below are a result of the energy, strength and high motor. Nelson’s a menace and disrupts the paint while being physical early. He checks all the toughness boxes NBA scouts seek. The term “wanting it more” is cliché, but still applies to how Nelson approaches the game. The value with Nelson is that he can tear defenders down in the paint, being physical and betting on second-chance looks, forcing boxouts by more than one defender, which opens up immediate kick-out opportunities for him to find shooters.
Screen-and-roll, touch around the basket
There’s no margin for error in Nelson’s game as a finisher out of screen-and-dive opportunities in the NBA. The effectiveness of his finishing is less relevant, but instead we’ll focus on the quality of his screening and how well he can adapt to a much higher area of impact on that end. More NBA teams run actions and fives are more often used as hubs, or primary supporting players in creating advantages, such as handoffs or screens inside the lane.
Nelson is a menace out of handoffs. He’s a hard wall-setter, focusing on absorbing the pick-and-roll defender instead of only forcing the opponent to make a decision. He’s also physical immediately after his rolls with the first play leading to the and-one, while he’s bailing out the doubled ball handler in the second play by sticking to his angle, which is another quality. He’s also smart in when he has to put hard walls, or when he’s only looking for slight separation. The third play had him use his gravity in the high pick-and-roll to draw help outside the lane, to immediately pop back to the paint to finish the lob pass, leading to the and-one. The best part is he’s always using tags and pushoffs, unbalancing the screen navigator before his rolls, adding the extra factor of his support to his ball handler. The fourth play shows an example.
Passing, ball-moving, and playmaking
Neutral returns at 41 assists to 46 turnovers this season. A negative assist-to-turnover ratio is always a small red flag, regardless of context. In Nelson’s case it’s the earlier-mentioned shot selection after offensive rebounds. He’s not always seeking the extra pass in his created advantages. That’s an area in his game for him to improve in the next few years. Regardless, Nelson will be a natural ball-mover at the next level. He’s executing basic reads and seeks to move the ball fast when he’s not initiating.
The first play has him create in the post, facing good defense. However, the composure, just like with his defense, speaks volumes here. He’s confident that he’ll find the angle instead of rushing his decision, leading to him finding the weak-side cutter leading to the double paint touch and rim finish. He’s finding ways to win time for his decision-making by switching between face-up bully-ball to switching to his back and posting up instead, hitting the cutter in the middle in the second possession below.
The third play has him fake the handoff and lure help defenders in the post. When that didn’t happen, he’s calm and looking for the natural pass instead of bailing himself out. The creativity as a passer comes out of handoffs, where he’s faking one again in the fourth possession, luring the defense’s attention toward him before hitting the backdoor cutter on the elbow with the bounce pass. He’s also tight-ending his way into space for others, with the fifth and sixth plays as examples. Blocking out lanes and opponents is another part of space-creation NBA scouts will value in his profile. It’s feasible we’ll see Nelson transition to a good ball-mover for the NBA.
NBA Draft Projection
Izaiyah Nelson will get his name called on draft night. There’s no doubt in my mind that teams will pass up on him and take the risk of seeing another franchise land him early in undrafted free agency. Although he’s in a archetype that’s expendable and easier to replace, the completeness of Nelson in his role as a strength and efficient five is hard to come by.
Teams need third options at center to be flexible when inevitable injuries occur. On top of that, Nelson can be a spark off the bench mostly used to wear opponents down, while supporting the offense around him with his screening. The best part is that he’s more than ready defensively for the next level. Even if he ends up undrafted, we’ll very likely see him being picked up on a two-way deal immediately after draft night.
At over 300 (!) articles in 3.5 years, Ersin’s NBA Draft Newsletter is your go-to for draft content. Make sure you subscribe at $6 per month for much more!