DaRon Holmes II Scouting Report

Despite his first-round buzz last year, Holmes II decided to return and expand his game. Why should the NBA be intrigued by his coming? What's the long-term trajectory? Find out below.

His dominance at Dayton made Holmes II an All-American and A-10 Co-Player of the Year. At 20.4 points and 8.5 rebounds per game, Holmes II showed that his production as an upperclassman came on both ends. His much-improved defense also crowned him the A-10 Defensive Player of the Year.

But how do his production and added intangibles result in his role at the next level? That’s the main focus of this scouting report.

Physical Profile

At 6’9” without shoes, Holmes II has below-average size for a traditional five. However, his seven-foot wingspan and excellent verticality offer enough intangibles to play a few inches taller than he is. Holmes II also has fluid hips, and his mobility is one of the unique selling points of his profile.

His footwork increased in his junior year, where he looked more comfortable sliding his feet on the defensive end. On the offensive end, Holmes II was way more fluid despite bulking up his frame, partially replacing weight with strength. This gives him a solid base in defending against the average NBA big man.

Defense

One of Holmes II’s main NBA values is his ability to guard multiple positions. He’ll have to close out in bunches, which makes this part of his game crucial to contribute to a positive defensive rating.

Looking at his defensive possessions, he’s often caught by his need to improve his positioning. In the first play below, Holmes II realizes too late that he had to cover the baseline instead of the strong side, with help defense being present on that side. This opened the driving lane for the ball handler.

In the second play, Holmes II overcommits in his help defense, leading to the late closeout. As a result, the ball handler blew by him with ease, as Holmes II was focused on getting to the corner too much, instead of leveling the closeout off to a point where he could decide to contest a potential three or make the ball handler beat him off the dribble.

We see a similar play in the last possession below. Holmes II’s pivot foot leaves the interior, which makes it harder for him to recover against the ball handler blowing by him. As a result, the defense collapses and Holmes II has to commit a foul to avoid the score. Despite playing at 2.0 personal fouls per 32.5 minutes per game, that number could have been lower as we have seen several possessions like these.

Another area of development for Holmes II is the timing of his help defense. Granted, in his role at Dayton he was asked to defend in a way that he had to compensate for the errors of others. More than he would on an NBA floor. However, there is consistency in Holmes II offering help too early in the play, which often leads to open shooters.

The first and third plays below are two examples. A positive in his profile is that he has a good feel for when he can afford to gamble on letting an opponent shoot, with the last play below being an example. Especially in sequences where Holmes II will play drop coverage as a five, that’s a must-have in his profile to succeed at the next level.

As a pick-and-roll defender, Holmes II shows the ability to slide his feet when he’s facing the ball handler. In his role at Dayton, he was asked to primarily play drop coverage, especially in the latter stages of the season. This limits the recent sample size to show his improvements as a pick-and-roll defender in his junior year.

In the three plays below, Holmes II shows much better defensive footwork compared to the sequences where he’s closing out to the perimeter. What stood out was Holmes II using his length to contest shots. This allows him to sag off his opponents more, daring them to beat him off the dribble.

Another positive is the second play below. Holmes II offers valuable intangibles in his coachability. In a switch-heavy NBA game, rotating quickly is a must-have for modern forwards and big men. No questions asked, and neither did Holmes II on this play, despite him keeping his assignment on the ball handler being the better team decision.

At the NBA level, Holmes II will often be asked to serve as a weakside defender. His fluid hips allow him to switch to cutting big men on dropoff passes, which is a must-have for him to maintain a neutral defensive rating by limiting good possessions to play-finishers.

However, there are two areas to clean up, his positioning and decision-making against fakes. In the first play, Holmes II ends up under the rim, making it easy for his opponent to pivot and relocate for the easy dunk. In the second play below, Holmes II looks out of reach to block the finish at the rim, leading to having to foul to make his opponent earn the points from the line.

Overall, his decision-making in his rotations and mobility give Holmes II a solid base to be an effective defender against cutters. However to continue that at the rim, the above-mentioned areas are must-haves to include for NBA decision-makers to his developmental plan.

Offense

With less and less usage going to big men nowadays, Holmes II has to figure out ways to get him good looks on an NBA floor. This is his screening. On that end, he’s one of the top screeners in college basketball. With more and more NBA teams adding European centers to their roster — mainly for their value as a screener — that’s an area for Holmes II to separate himself from most of his peers.

At 38.6% on 2.5 threes per game, Holmes shows an improved number from downtown. A large chunk of these attempts come via Dayton using him as a pick-and-pop threat. What stood out in his shooting mechanics is Holmes II getting more comfortable in setting his feet quickly, which results in a smooth release with a high enough arc to limit the chances his shots will get blocked.

His willingness to shoot also improved. Holmes II had at least one three-point attempt in 28 of his 33 games this season; this was only 50% in 34 games last year.

In catch-and-shoot sequences, Holmes II is more comfortable at setting his feet compared to when he runs off a ball screen. The four plays below are an example of him comfortably finding his jumpers from outside and the midrange. This opens the room for him to play in a tweener role, where he’ll play as the four in line-ups with two big men or when a team decides to play with more size and length.

The luxury of playing four or five out and having an above-average NBA screener is important to a team’s offensive rating. This is due to teams being able to find their three-point attempts without sacrificing a traditional big man’s screening in a shooter-heavy line-up. That’s the wildcard Holmes II is giving an NBA franchise.

Teams that prioritize putting multiple ball handlers on the floor will also be intrigued by Holmes II’s profile. He shows untapped potential as a scorer as the pick-and-roll ball handler. There is a limited sample size in him playing with the ball in his hands creating his offense. However, in the plays where he did, he showed consistency in hunting his looks at the rim.

An area to work on, especially on an NBA floor will ball touches are scarce, is his not forcing the issue. In the first play below, that ended up in a sloppy turnover and two points on the other end. Holmes II also milks off too many seconds from the clock and has to show quicker driving to the rim. With a trend of more inverted pick-and-rolls in the NBA, teams do themselves a favor by adding ball handlers in their big-man rotation.

As a ball handler, Holmes II has to improve on that end in the next few years. His creativity is limited thus far to east-west or hesitation moves where he’s relying on his strength to create an advantage near the rim, rather than shaking defenders out of balance with his craft and driving by them. The second, third, and fourth plays below show an example of his ability to score with the ball in his hands.

To project a long-term role, Holmes II has excellent passing traits to hang his hat on. Whether it’s as a connective passer, or by utilizing his strength in the post, Holmes II has a nose for finding cutters or spot-up shooters.

At 2.6 assists to 2.2 turnovers per game in a usage-heavy role, that’s a solid number. It gets better when realizing he’s challenging double-teams against most opponents while playing on a career-high 31.5% usage. Holmes II takes much better care of the basketball than the turnover numbers might indicate, therefore the above-mentioned nuance had to be added.

What stands out in the first and third plays below is that Holmes II will turn entry passes into forcing defenses to rotate or offer help. Hitting skip passes with that much speed and accuracy is a testimony to his passing touch. Another area that’ll serve him well is his ability to post up to force defenders to commit help. The last play below, resulted in a wide-open finish at the rim, with the defense facing the consequences of Holmes II leveraging his strength advantage.

His long-term potential as a passer comes with Holmes II earning more on-ball reps. The last play shows an example of him creating for others as the pick-and-roll ball handler. Big men with plus-screening and finishing abilities offering ball handling are a rare commodity. And that’s the potential an NBA decision-maker is buying in Holmes II.

NBA Draft Projection

Holmes II brings value to his status as an upperclassman with an NBA-ready game as a screener, shooter off the catch, and versatile defender. His long-term value that’ll secure a long stay in the league comes via his passing and excellent touch near the rim — 74.1% excluding the almost two dunks per game.

On the defensive end, Holmes II has to clean up his positioning and defensive footwork on closeouts. Those are areas that make it a threat for Holmes II to ensure that he keeps a team’s defensive rating on par. His early help defense in a faster-paced NBA game with more ball movement is also an area of development in the long run.

On a better-spaced NBA floor, Holmes II can find himself in a niche role early with the quickness in setting his feet and launching for his shot. That combined with his excellent screening ability gives Holmes II a pathway to become a volume three-point shooter as a big man. It becomes more likely when considering his excellent mobility and screening, that make it more valuable for a team to have him out there playing in shooting-heavy lineups and being able to offer his tasks as a traditional big man.

Based on the projectable and scalable role, combined with his excellent year at Dayton, Holmes II is a lottery-level talent in the 2024 NBA Draft.