Ben Saraf Scouting Report
Saraf took the Most Valuable Player honors of FIBA U18 EuroBasket 2024 as the tournament's leading scorer, putting him on the map. But what is the NBA intrigue? Find out more below.
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Introduction
Saraf has had the best summer among European prospects. During the FIBA U18 EuroBasket, The now-18-year-old Israeli put up 28.1 points, 5.3 assists, and 5.0 rebounds per game; numbers that are nothing short of MVP-worthy. Two years ago, Saraf’s basketball journey leaped when he was selected for the All-European Patras team for the prestigious Next Generation EuroLeague tournament, following a 24-point-plus scoring outbreak during the FIBA U16 EuroBasket.
That team was coached by an all-time European great Vassilis Spanoulis, making Saraf the excelling prospect of that team, especially with his scoring prowess and passing. As a result of both, Saraf signed a three-year deal with German youth-developing powerhouse ratiopharm Ulm, who just had two players being selected in the 2024 NBA Draft—Pacôme Dadiet going 25th and Juan Núñez with the 36th overall pick.
Physical Profile
At 6-foot-6, Saraf is a plus-sized scoring guard. He has a wiry frame, but broad shoulders with good upper-body strength. Saraf has below-average burst and decent lateral quickness, mostly relying on his craft and handles to get to spots, combined with being physical.
That takes away the size advantage concerning his ability to guard multiple positions as a defender. For NBA standards, he’s best to be put up against physical wings, rather than quick and creative guards. His fluid hips and good mobility help him to potentially compensate for a lack of quickness. Saraf doesn’t have the athleticism in terms of verticality but makes up for it with excellent length and good instincts.
To fully bank on his scoring potential, Saraf has to focus on getting stronger in the next few years, continuing to fill his frame gradually. Therefore, it’s vital to contextualize his NBA potential in the right way, thus will the film of his played minutes as a professional be used, rather than his games during the FIBA summer circuit.
Defense
As a plus-sized guard, Saraf has to master the art of pick-and-roll defense to solidify a long-term status in the NBA. What immediately stood out was his level of toughness and twitchiness, showing he’s dedicated to making winning plays as a defender. However, at times, his lack of experience against older opponents was telling.
The first play below is an example. Body movement by the ball-handler already gave signs that the ball screen was just a decoy to bank on the drop-coverage big standing close to the perimeter. Saraf was too reactive to the hesitation move followed by the spin, positioning himself further away from the basket than his opponent, which led to the dribble drive.
As a screen navigator, we see Saraf embracing physical contact while showing signs of matching the level of intensity against stronger and older players. However, his ability to get around screens is a work in progress. In the second possession, Saraf calls for the switch but doesn’t recognize the wall outside of his sight, leading to the ball-handler getting the separation for the one-dribble pull-up.
An NBA decision-maker needs to focus on Saraf’s improvement in positioning. On top of the struggles in the first play, the third possession shows Saraf again getting baited in positioning himself too close to the perimeter, compared to the driving ball handler. He’s too quick in reacting to hesitation moves, which is a potential red flag in his profile. Gifted NBA scorers will be keen on putting Saraf on an island to bank on the reactive nature of his defense.
However, there are positives. Saraf shows flashes of active rotations during his defense. He’s good at keeping the ball handler in his sight while recognizing the ICE and as a reaction checks in on the screeners. Despite the ball handler attacking the weak side, Saraf does well in pivoting his left foot to elevate with his right and keep up with the ball handler’s lateral quickness.
His active rotations are a plus part of his defensive profile. That benefits him in his defense against closeout attackers. NBA decision-makers like to see young prospects already mastering the habit of picking up rotations for their teammates. It’s a given that not every defensive scheme will work. Therefore, having five NBA-caliber defenders who know how to pick up the mistakes of teammates will make it imminent that defensive ratings will improve. Saraf shows the signs to match this description.
In the first play below, the defense collapses after the dribble-drive to where Saraf rotates above the break to support the help defender. Hereafter, the shot-fake followed up by the side pass led to a good reaction by Saraf who quickly turned his hips while pivoting strongly with his right foot. He’s then again beaten by the one dribble, showing strong elevation to dive into the shooter for the shot contest. Regardless of the outcome, that was a great defensive play on his part.
However, the biggest area of development for Saraf when defending on the perimeter is his habit of overhelping on defense. In a fundamentally sound European game, it’s all about creating advantages by good decision-making. After the entry pass, Saraf is quick to bother the big man, who fakes the pass to the cutter, to use simple footwork and find the open guard on the perimeter. The fake led to Saraf being too reactionary, thus positioning himself closer to the basket than the perimeter, making it easy for the big man to dish out the pass.
The positive in regards to his overhelping is that when Saraf is defending off the ball, he’s much more focused on his assignment. After the dribble penetration, Saraf keeps one foot inside the paint to stay in help mode but stays cautious for a potential kick-out pass. Against extra ball movement, the extra rotation wasn’t necessary, but the gamble on picking up the deflection was a good decision seen the circumstances.
But the most crucial part of Saraf’s defense in comparison to staying on an NBA floor is combining his pivot foot with his closeouts. When you factor in the reactive nature of his defense, that makes it more vital that Saraf has to show the best possible footwork when closing out to opponents. The last play below is a good example. Saraf pivots his right foot too far out, leaving to him stay unbalanced against the driving ball handler. The lack of burst and overall speed trickles down the effect of him getting blown by. He can stay in front of opponents by using his physicality and toughness, but the footwork is vital to solidify his status as an NBA prospect.
When focusing on Saraf’s defense against spot-up shooters, his active rotations again stand out. That’s a green flag in his defensive NBA profile for decision-makers to focus on. Examples are given in the first two plays below. Looking at his long-term potential, the process of coming to his rotations is top-notch in Saraf’s case.
In the first play below, he responds to the opponent spreading out the floor by relocating closer to the perimeter, making him more flexible to potentially close out to either his assignment or by rotating to another one.
The second possession shows a similar process. The ball handler looked to relocate to the weak side, whereafter Saraf put one foot outside the interior. Hereafter, he moves toward the ball after the entry pass, closing angles for the big man to potentially hit a pass to the elbow on the left side of the floor. Although he’s too late to recognize the successful double leading to a bail-out pass to the guard up close, he does well to pop out and still cleanly contest the shot. However, on an NBA floor against quicker execution, that’s more likely than not an open three-point shot given up. Saraf’s fluid hips will help him to establish a better base for his closeout defense. The last play below is an example of how fluid his movements are, the base to get better at mastering his physical tools.
The lack of experience in a professional setting is telling in Saraf’s defense against cutters. Because he isn’t directly involved in the on-ball actions, a certain pattern of a lack of confidence and ball-watching becomes visible in his sequences. In the first play below, Saraf is positioned too far away from the painted area, whereafter his focus is disturbed by the entry pass to the big man in the mid-post area. Hereafter, he’s hesitant in either helping or keeping the tag to his assignment near the corner to cover the baseline, leading to the easy backdoor cut.
The second possession is an interesting one because Saraf is processing the play very well via his screen navigation and positioning afterward. However, he needed a second too much to settle for the offensive play which was in the phase of the dribble penetration. This led to him being too late to rotate to the drop-off pass down low. So executing his defensive reads at a higher pace is the biggest area of development for him in the next few years.
A positive for the aforementioned is that Saraf’s decision-making on rotations is at a good level. The third play starts with Saraf overhelping the ball handler picking up his dribble, whereafter he gets the backdoor cut against him. However, his feel for the game made it easy to make an additional rotation to cover the weak side and stay in the area to take on his assignment in the corner, followed up by staying in a good box-out position for the potential defensive rebound. The process that will speed up things is lessening the ball-watching, with the fourth play below being a good example.
Offense
On the offensive end, Saraf’s performances during the FIBA U18 EuroBasket made it clear that he’s a dynamic scorer who can scale up to high-usage situations. But that requires NBA teams to put the ball in his hands. And there are not many of those roster spots available in the league. Therefore, gradually increasing ball touches and usage is the way to go for most franchises. To find prospects fitting into this style of development, it’s vital to be able to scale an offensive game up and down. Despite the impressive numbers, Saraf is in a tough position where he has to maintain a team’s offensive rating with way fewer touches.
This puts more value into his passing. Good passers and playmakers can demand more ball touches because they benefit the offense when it comes to making plays for themselves and others. The NBA is focusing on ball movement where players must master the skill of passing up good looks for a potential great look. In a four and even five-out setting, passing is a crucial skill to possess to recognize angles and execute passing reads, as floor spacing is the name of the game, and rim pressure alone doesn’t secure that consistently.
At 80 assists to 36 turnovers, the numbers indicate plus-playmaking. Considering it is at Israel’s highest level of professional basketball, it raises the value. You don’t often see an 18-year-old playing as a seasoned veteran among older players. But in Saraf’s case, that’s the confidence he exudes.
In the first two plays, Saraf serves as a pick-and-roll playmaker where his ability to decelerate immediately stood out. He’s not a fast player, nor does he stand out with his burst. However, his craft and footwork open up his ability to create angles when attacking the rim. His live-dribble playmaking is above average for his age, especially considering his composure before dishing out the pass that eventually turns into an assist. In both plays, decelerating on the drive before dishing the dime should give NBA decision-makers confidence that it will translate into a faster-paced game as well.
It becomes more feasible when considering Saraf keeps the same level of composure when his initial offensive read doesn’t work out. In the third play below, he drives into the paint without a clear runway for the rim. After initiating contact, he’s a bit out of balance, immediately deferring to making the right pass. The level of composure before the execution is key, and a clear sign of plus-playmaking skills. With a lack of high-level speed, Saraf focusing on mastering the art of changing his pace will continue to open up his game on an NBA floor. In the fourth play, he does well to decelerate, leading to the opposing defense committing to following his decision-making. And that opened up the backdoor cutter’s driving lane with a right execution by Saraf.
At 28.6% three-point shooting on 70 attempts this past season, it’s hard to put a good value on Saraf’s three-point shooting. Compared to the United States, FIBA-organized games are on a smaller floor in a game that’s less focused on spacing. So open three-pointers are more seldom compared to the NBA. That’s why taking his shooting numbers at face value would be bad practice. Instead, the process of his jump shot combined with the whole process of getting to his jump-shot opportunities is what should be the leading factor in determining the shooting value of his draft profile.
What immediately stood out is that Saraf is much more comfortable setting his feet after movement to quickly pull the trigger, rather than shoot from a standstill. The third play below is a good example. Despite being the youngest player on the court, Saraf thrives on his ability to be vocal and actively ask for the ball. He has the right attitude to succeed on a floor against older players, where his young age combined with being modest wouldn’t have helped him to get that many shots up during the season.
Areas to work on for Saraf are his relaxed stance when he’s shooting from a standstill. In the second play below, he takes simply too much time to set his feet and pull up for the shot. On an NBA floor, he has to be as quick as possible, regardless of how open a three-point shot is. That’s both to get blocked or get his shot contested by a defender outside of his sight or to maintain a higher pace which is a must to have the best odds to keep a team’s offensive rating at par. An NBA decision-maker must also experiment with changing Saraf’s shot to get rid of his habit of lowering the ball to under his waist, combined with not fully bending his knees. The fourth play below is a good example. When Saraf continues to get stronger in the next few years, he’ll likely be able to shoot no-dip threes because he brings the ball up to an “L” form before shooting.
Composure is good. But too much composure gets in Saraf’s way at times. He’s too slow at times when deciding to either attack the closeout or make the extra pass. Fastening up his decision-making is a must to fully bank on his offensive potential. Considering that Saraf has to gradually earn on-ball reps on an NBA floor, his self-creation ability while making plays out of closeouts is what will be mostly asked by NBA decision-makers.
The first play below is a good example of him having to speed things up. After the pass, he pivots, pass-fakes, and then pivots again before the launch to the rim. The level of competition is what still got Saraf a wide-open floater after driving via the middle, as on an NBA floor, he would have had the ball stripped away much earlier before his drive. It's understandable for Saraf to want to make the best decisions considering the European way of not allowing many mistakes, but if he can make decisions quicker, an NBA decision-maker will fully commit to developing his offensive potential, including handing him precious ball touches on important moments in NBA games.
Another area of development is to match the same level of composure and execution from his playmaking duties. Saraf isn’t strong enough to compete with high-caliber athletes yet. On a European floor with no defensive three-second rule, he’ll have to fight through contact against big men at the rim to get clean looks. While he has an excellent feel for the game in terms of his playmaking, he doesn’t make the extra pass when he’s focused on scoring. Forcing shots is the easiest way to get benched in the NBA because the margin for error is too small for rookies. For this upcoming season at ratiopharm Ulm, Saraf has to pass a lot more out of drives, especially when facing a set defender or multiple defenders near the rim. The second and fourth plays below are two examples.
If Saraf gradually shows improvement during his career, his on-ball reps will increase. Therefore, taking his pick-and-roll scoring ability into account is always a must in evaluating guard talent. It’s a given that most Europe-based guards develop a combination of craft and decision-making to compensate for a lack of athletic traits. That’s also the case with Saraf. What will eventually demand his toll is his habit of settling for midrange jumpers.
Saraf isn’t good at creating deep paint touches. Despite having strong enough handles to keep dribbles alive against hedging or blitzing defenders, he’s more vulnerable to pull-ups for midrange shots when attacking the rim. He’s a creative scorer in tight areas, but more often than not plays too safe. Taking risks should be encouraged by NBA coaches once he’s in the league, as their European colleagues are in win-now mode and show less patience and understanding for mistakes.
Regardless of the aforementioned, Saraf too often settles for midrange shots. He should also invest in his ability to use his craft and hesitation moves to get himself to the free-throw line. The first play below is a good example, Saraf picks up his dribble and launches the fake. But instead of diving into the shooter’s arm for the foul and the potential and-one, he’s taking a midrange jumper, avoiding the defender in the air. Despite his settling for shots bails out the defense, he’s also in need of ‘smart’ shot-making as banking on opportunities to get himself to the line is a must to develop. Avoiding plays as the second one below is what he should work toward at Ulm.
In the third possession, we see Saraf hit the deck after initiating contact near the rim. Prospects falling too often is a sign of their upper-body strength not being on the level to play against older and stronger players. But the contrary is true in Saraf’s case. He has a habit of trusting that the opponent will serve as a wall, rather than hypothetically speaking ‘pulling the chair’ and simply not being the wall Saraf intended them to be.
NBA Draft Projection
For an NBA decision-maker, here are the aforementioned areas summarized:
Strengths
Excellent live-dribble passer. He’s a natural playmaker who stays composed at times and mastered angle-creation by decelerating during his dribbles. For NBA standards, Saraf has the tools to be a plus-playmaker.
Saraf is a promising pick-and-roll defender due to his toughness and excellent hip mobility. With improving footwork, he’s good at pivoting his feet before his next move. He’s an aggressive defender who an NBA coach cannot use by spamming hedges or blitzes due to his lack of lateral quickness.
The base to evolve into a plus-defender comes via rotations and quick execution. Saraf masters the rotations part, as he’s vocal and actively rotates to clean up for others. However, he’s often too slow to execute his reads, especially when he’s defending off the ball. Regardless, the process is a strength considering the early phase of his career.
Areas of development
Settles for midrange jumpers too often. When he’s at the rim, the lack of strength is appealing. Therefore, there’s a cap on his true scoring potential inside the arc. That puts more pressure on his three-point shooting to succeed.
Saraf struggles to defend off the ball. That’s a common thing with young prospects but the difference in his case is that he’s less comfortable when he’s not involved in on-ball actions. That’s an area of development his coaches at Ulm need to focus on developing.
It often takes too long for Saraf’s decision-making to get set when making plays out of closeouts. In a halfcourt-focused European game, that’s not hurting his scoring outburst, but on an NBA floor in a higher-paced game, that will lead to Saraf's struggle to generate good scoring opportunities as a self-creator.
Based on the aforementioned strengths and areas of development alongside the details in this scouting report, I project Ben Saraf to be an early second-round pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.
The main reason to keep him outside of the first round is the lack of true shot-making near the rim. Considering the lack of explosiveness and lateral quickness, Saraf’s focus on craft is understandable. But to make it work on an NBA floor, he should be able to get to the rim in volume and be efficient, as the signs he has shown so far at the pros don’t indicate that part of his game.
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