Ajay Mitchell Scouting Report
The need for a scalable option at point guard results in an increased amount of motion offense in the NBA. How does Mitchell's game translate to the league? Find out below.
After winning Big West Player of the Year in 2023, Mitchell popped up on NBA radars due to his versatile way of leading a team as their floor general. He’s combining on-ball activities with tons of off-ball plays, which led to him finding a variety of ways to score.
At 20 points per game in his junior year, he shows he can produce while playing in a role suited to translate early in his NBA career. With continuous motion without the ball in his hands, Mitchell will have franchise decision-makers intrigued with the intangibles he puts on the table.
As the son of a former professional basketball player, it’s clear that Mitchell grew up with the sport being an important part of his life. His feel for the game is mostly a result of him being around basketball for so long. At 22 years old, his NBA readiness will be shown in this scouting report.
Physical Profile
Mitchell has a solid frame at 6’5”. He’s still adding strength to his body after already putting up 25 pounds compared to his senior year in high school. He has a decent burst but relies on his craft to create separation from his defenders.
He has smooth handles, an area of his game that improved in each of his two seasons at Santa Barbara. His hips are fluid, but at times Mitchell can be a tad too slow in moving them. While having decent lateral quickness, Mitchell struggles against better-gifted athletes, which is an early concern in his profile. His feel for the game and decision-making make up for most of the disadvantages he faces. This is something an NBA decision-maker should keep in mind when evaluating his profile.
Another area that suits Mitchell well is his body control. He doesn’t get downhill often, but when he does, he shows the ability to utilize the smallest angles for the extra pass or goes for the finish himself, showing good touch at the rim.
Offense
At the NBA level, the scalability of his profile starts with Mitchell being able to convert open shots off the catch. At 39.3% on 2.9 attempts per game, the jumper isn’t at a consistent level yet, despite the good numbers. With 80% of his tries being shots prepared for him, Mitchell needs to improve his shooting form.
He takes a tad too long to set his feet, which is a crucial part of him heating up in terms of a volume shooter off the catch. The first play below is an example, where Mitchell takes the open three after his team collects the offensive board. He doesn’t set his feet well enough to follow, which leads to an uncomfortable release.
The second play is an example of what Mitchell should do more often. After he moves towards the ball, he quickly sets his feet upon the catch and follows it up with a quick trigger. In a much faster NBA game, that’s a crucial element for him to stay on the floor without hurting a team’s offensive rating.
Mitchell’s ability to get to his spots while running off screens is one of the selling points of his profile. He looks more comfortable setting his feet in this play type. Despite it still being a tad too slow, he’s quicker at pulling up for his jumper. His hips are fluid as he can quickly move around his body to set himself up for the shot, with the first play below being a good example.
With his motion-based style of play, he looks more comfortable shooting in movement compared to when he’s shooting from a standstill, with the last play below being a good example. That’s something an NBA team must keep in mind when evaluating his profile.
Mitchell’s size at 6’5” helps him to play multiple roles on an NBA floor. Therefore, it’s more likely that we’ll see him attack closeouts more often than traditional leading guards who are asked to set the team’s offense. What stood out is that Mitchell shows great decision-making but at times he tries to do too much on the court which leads to avoidable turnovers.
With a usage rate over 30%, his 2.6 turnovers per game aren’t bad, mostly when keeping in mind that plays such as the first one below often happen. In terms of his feel for the game, it became clear that his teammates often misunderstood his reads, which is less likely to happen at the NBA level.
He does well at initiating the drive before the fake side pass, which opens up a wide-open driving lane near the baseline for the corner shooter. Mitchell made the pass, but the cutter was too late with his drive to the rim.
In the second play, Mitchell uses his craft to create enough separation before the impressive finish at the rim. He doesn’t have the burst to blow by his man, so he aggressively uses his pivot foot to get by his man on the launch. Details such as these make it more feasible that Mitchell will continue to get better at compensating for the lack of athleticism in favor of his shot-making.
Another positive sign in Mitchell maintaining his scoring gravity in a league with better athletes than him is his craft. In hand-off situations, as shown in the first play below, or isolation in the second and third plays, Mitchell shows that his strong frame allows him to initiate contact when making drives to the rim.
He’s good at changing his pace due to his footwork. Which is a separation-creator that doesn’t pop out immediately when watching him play. In the first play below, he sets his feet to sell the defense that he’ll make a spin move but follows it up with a fadeaway jumper from midrange. His creativity as a scorer will translate at the next level due to him being so good at the fundamentals already.
At 44.2%, he’s an above-average scorer from the midrange, with over 90% of his attempts being self-created looks. Another thing that Mitchell does well is to use his scoring gravity from the midrange to get downhill. At times, he makes the defense adjust in preparing for Mitchell’s midrange look, which he uses to get downhill, as shown in the last play below where he shows good touch at the rim.
Another value-riser in Mitchell’s profile is that he’s averaging over six free throws per game without having the physical tools to blow by his opponents. His craft and knowing his body so well make him one of the best scoring threats in the Big West conference.
For the NBA, his ability to create advantages in pick-and-roll scenarios is a must-have in his profile. Especially considering that teams will likely prepare for his pull-up jumper, which makes it a disadvantage for Mitchell in terms of him being predictable. However, he mitigates the above-mentioned very well with his footwork.
In the first play below we see Mitchell defer to hesitation moves before the pull-up three. With him decelerating before the burst in the second play before landing the two free throws before halftime. For prospects who struggle to get downhill, the touch at the rim becomes more important. The last play below is an example of what to expect. However the other side of the coin in terms of his tough-shot making is the total rim-finishing number at 59.5% should be something an NBA decision-maker has to keep in mind.
Defense
As a team defender, Mitchell shows decent awareness of how the offense will go. However, at times he’s a tad too slow in rotating, making him more vulnerable in terms of getting his defense collapsed. Despite him putting up good numbers, this is one of the reasons why his team doesn’t play winning basketball in the Big West conference.
We see an example in the first play below, where Mitchell covers the space around the free throw line but comes up short in keeping the driving lane closed against the cutter who receives the ball near the charity stripe. In the second play, we see a better execution, with Mitchell making the read timely, but the fake after closing out too hard was inevitable.
However, when he’s closing out instead of rotating from a standstill, we see much better execution on his part. He uses his arms very well in the last play below to scare off a potential entry pass, whereafter he uses his body to initiate contact and force his assignment to an unbalanced shot near the rim.
Against spot-up shooters, we see Mitchell often guarding too deep in the interior, making it harder for him to closeout effectively. In the first play below, the Santa Barbara defense packs the paint in the opponent’s transition offense, leading to him being too late to contest the three-point shot.
In the second play, Mitchell closes out quicker to the elbow, making it easier for him to rotate to the corner to contest the shooter. At 2.6 personal fouls per 31 minutes per game, he stays out of foul trouble, which is a good sign considering he plays an aggressive style of defense where he doesn’t shy away from initiating contact to make it harder for his assignment to get a clean look against him.
Against off-ball screens, we see the same style of defense. What stood out in the last play below is that he doesn’t allow the cutter to get off him as he timely sees the incoming screen. His screen navigation is one of the positives in his defensive profile.
When looking further at his defense against cutters, we see inconsistent awareness and rotations on his part. In the first play below, he’s timely in deflecting the drop-off pass to the big man near the dunker’s spot. However, in the last two plays, Mitchell doesn’t look focused while he covers the open space near the high post.
In a faster NBA game, that could cause him to struggle against more motion offenses he’ll face at the next level. Therefore, an NBA decision-maker must make this a part of his developmental plan to improve as a team defender in the long run. As shown above, his reads are good in general, but the execution will improve over time. In the long run, this doesn’t warrant Mitchell being an above-average team defender, making it a risk for a team’s defensive rating to give him many minutes early on in his career.
Against hand-offs, his screen navigation looks good. However, at times, he tends to go over the screen more often than he should, with the second play being an example. We see the opposing big man set the screen immediately after the hand-off, where Mitchell should have tried to dodge the screen by moving toward the free-throw line. Granted, the execution was good on Long Beach State’s side, but this example is what he’ll face at the NBA level on a nightly basis.
In the first and last play below, we see much better screen navigation from Mitchell. He’s good at sliding between the ball handler and screener, which makes it promising for him to develop into an above-average defender on that end in the long run. What also stood out in the last play is that he contested the shot so well, despite the opponent coming off the screen with a clean look from the free-throw line. That’s a positive he’ll bring to the NBA.
With the pick-and-roll ball handler being the most common play type at the NBA level, Mitchell’s defense on this end will be a crucial part of his evaluation. As mentioned earlier, he does well in navigating through screens more often than not, with the first play being an example. His aggressive style of defense led to the foul, which was a good thing as he made his assignment earn the points from the line, instead of giving away the open lay-up.
In the last play, the Fullerton guard takes a tad too long before driving to the rim, giving Mitchell time to relocate and close the driving lane. He does well at staying physical, but he couldn’t jump in time to contest the shot near the rim. This doesn’t hurt his profile, but it shows him being a bit heavy-footed in terms of using his verticality to defend at the rim. That’s something an NBA decision-maker must take in mind when evaluating his profile.
NBA Draft Projection
Mitchell is an NBA-ready combo guard, despite playing in a leading guard role at the college level. This is due to his motion-based style of play which suits today’s league very well. NBA decision-makers will love his continuous movement on the court, and that combined with his feel for the game being above-average, he’ll have no issue in adapting to the many sophisticated plays an NBA team runs on a nightly basis.
His athleticism hinders him from making an impact early on in his career in terms of his defense. However, what stood out during the evaluation of his profile is that Mitchell shows maturity in terms of knowing his body very well and using his craft and decision-making to his advantage, mitigating some aspects of his lack of functional athleticism.
As a shooter, Mitchell needs to work on setting his feet quicker before the shot. That’s the difference-maker in terms of him evolving into an above-average shooter, which is a must for him to stay on an NBA floor for long stretches during games.
Another positive is his screen navigation, and at 6’5”, that helps him to defend multiple positions, with the one and two being the primary tasks he’ll receive on an NBA floor.
Mitchell will be 22 years old during the whole NBA season. His readiness combined with a clear role as both a leading guard and in an off-ball role due to his motion-based style of play will lead to him being able to play minutes for a contender early on in his career. Based on the above-mentioned pros and cons, I project Ajay Mitchell to be a first-round pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, with it being likely he’ll be selected between the 21st and 30th pick.