AJ Johnson Scouting Report

A limited role in New Zealand shouldn't take Johnson off of NBA radars. He's one of the most physically gifted prospects in this class. But is it enough to get drafted? And what will be his role?

As a high school freshman, Johnson has had a nine-inch growth spurt in just two years. Usually, the frame will be late to follow up, which explains his slim build. One of the reasons Johnson went pro after graduating high school was to transition to the league in the quickest way possible.

In 240 minutes played, Johnson has shown enough promising flashes that kept him on NBA radars, despite being in a limited role. The amount of guard talent in and around the NBA makes it hard for up-and-coming signal-callers to earn a role right away, thus inviting prospects to get more creative in their ways to get to the league. This scouting report will solely focus on Johnson’s strengths and areas of development and which NBA role suits him best.

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Physical Profile

At 6’4.25” in socks, Johnson is a lightning-quick and fluid ball handler who controls the pace of the game. He has great length with a 6’8.50” wingspan. As his footwork improved in the NBL, the pathway to impact an NBA offense became more realistic considering his light feet.

With a great burst, Johnson got downhill with ease at the high school level. In a fast-paced NBA-styled game in New Zealand, Johnson had more issues getting downhill at the start of the year. The sign of maturing his game was seen in him generating paint touches more easily later on in the season.

Johnson is explosive both laterally and vertically. Testing out with a 38-inch vertical, his size and length give him an advantage in the paint, especially once he continues to fill his frame. At 167 pounds, his growth spurt in high school still leads to his body adjusting to its new size. To maximize his physical tools as a defender, successfully getting stronger via an NBA strength and conditioning program will be crucial.

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Offense

At 23 assists in 29 games, the numbers don’t indicate Johnson’s playmaking. However, the contrary here is true. He’s able to execute basic reads while he’s attacking the rim but has a few areas to work on to become a ball-handling playmaker in the NBA.

In terms of decision-making, Johnson does well in attacking the weakside on the first play after his defender puts his pivot foot too far out. While he goes east to west he catches the collapsing defense leaving the play-finisher under the basket wide-open, whereafter he executes his read with a bounce pass.

At times, Johnson is caught passing the ball too early. Instead of getting the pass to where it needs to be, he hits the cutter or roller too early in the play. The second possession is an example. Johnson gets the separation via the ball screen and decelerates once he’s inside the arc. The roller getting there late should have led to Johnson attacking the drop-coverage big man, instead of hitting the roller with a way-too-early side pass. He was credited with an assist, despite the scorer having to create its lay-up, rather than finish the play Johnson set up in the pick-and-roll set.

With speed and quickness being Johnson’s game, his playmaking in transition is what an NBA decision-maker will focus on. In the third play, Johnson is the ball handler, and he draws three defenders to himself before dishing his teammate at the low post.

The last play is where Johnson shows his natural court vision. He recognizes the wide-open cutter in the middle, and instead of finishing against two underneath the basket, he makes the extra pass. Those are the flashes an NBA team will look for in his profile.

Johnson shot 53.8% on 13 free-throw attempts this season. The sample size is neglectful and doesn’t indicate any concerns regarding his touch. In his paint-touch-heavy game, Johnson will likely get to the line more often in a fast-paced NBA game. With his solid ball handling and improving offensive creativity, an NBA decision-maker knows they have to invest in on-ball reps to develop him.

Therefore, showing flashes of ability to self-create looks as the pick-and-roll ball handler will be decisive for his draft stock. What immediately stood out was Johnson’s decision-making regarding when to launch to the basket. In the first play, he runs the high pick-and-roll and launches before the ball screen is fully set. This helped him get full separation. To help his offensive development, small details like these are why he’s better off playing in the NBL than in college.

That’s the difference between a pro and a college forward or big man, as screens are becoming more functional, rather than a tool to switch or force ball handlers to make a decision, which is more the case in college basketball.

After the separation in the first play, Johnson shows his creativity with a well-timed hesitation move, which he follows up with a rushed lay-up leading to the miss. With one extra dribble, he could have had a much easier look down low. In the second play, we see Johnson again use his deceleration followed up by a hesitation move to blow by his defender. Despite his slim frame, he does well to take the contact and still put a decent finish up to earn a trip to the free-throw line.

But his decision-making is an area that needs improvement. In the third play below, he collapses the defense, with help defense already in position inside the arc to rotate to him. The roller was wide open in the middle as Johnson had the angle for the bounce pass. He decided to form his bucket by driving into traffic whereafter the defense easily stripped him of the transition opportunity.

Among NBA guards, pull-up shooting is another must-have to succeed. And that’s an area where Johnson’s change of pace and deceiving ball handling help him to get separation off the dribble. In an isolation-styled play, he calls for the high screen before selling the dribble penetration to the defense. With good footwork, he aggressively puts his pivot foot behind the three-point line before pulling up for the three-point banker shot.

On an NBA floor, defenses will likely pack the paint in the early stages of his career, where he’s forced to pull up from three or the midrange. Therefore, mastering the floater game is crucial for scoring heavy guards. In the last play below, we see him use his verticality and length in hitting the midrange floater with the defense crowding the painted area. Combined with his pull-up jumper, those are important flashes that look promising for NBA decision-makers.

At 27.8% on over one three-point attempt per game, the numbers are again neglectable. If it was over 40% the same would apply because Johnson’s shooting mechanics need work to make it work on an NBA floor.

The first play is an example of Johnson receiving the kick-out pass after the offensive rebound, where he needed too much time to set his feet, correct his stance after the low catch, and then pull up. An athlete with his fluidity should work on getting in shooting motion much quicker than he showed on that play.

In the second possession, Johnson looks more fluid in setting his feet, but his mechanics look off. He brings the ball under his waist, while not fully bending his knees before the launch. At 167 pounds and a slim frame, it’s understandable there needs to be more effort in powering up for the shot. However, the release point is low and he looks to jump after his release instead of doing it before he gets the shot off.

Another area of development is to be functional on offense after he gets his shot off. Instead of keeping his arm in the air ready to celebrate his three, the defense crashed the glass, whereafter he could either relocate backward to get back in transition earlier or help his team box out to get a potential rebound. In both options, the team’s scheme matters. But after the jumper, Johnson had no continued value and was bailed out after his team got the offensive rebound.

The fourth play is where we’ll see Johnson shoot from the most: the corner. As a spot-up shooter, he has to show he can scale down from his ball-handling duties. However, the jumper looks off here, as mentioned earlier the release point is too low and he doesn’t use his verticality well in his jumper. The nuance here is that he joined a highly-ranked pro league immediately after high school, so it naturally takes time to adjust to a faster-paced game with a different three-point line in the distance. On the other hand, an NBA decision-maker must accept the time he needs to develop for his three-point jumper to become NBA-ready, which is a lowering factor in his draft stock.

Another must-have for Johnson in a scaled-down role is him generating his own looks inside the arc via cuts. What immediately stood out is that he’s a smart cutter who leverages his burst and speed in not unncessarily moving on the floor. His relocations are functional and complement the offensive set. What Johnson does well is him actively cutting to the inside after he sees his assignment ball-watch.

The first play is a good example of his active cutting, where the play could have ended with a dunk. He gets blocked by a stronger forward and that’s fine as the process itself and the flashes are what matters in this stage of his career.

In the second and fourth possessions, Johnson shows good decision-making on his cut via the baseline, as he cuts at the same time his assignment steps inside the paint to rotate to the ball handler, which led to a highlight-worthy dunks on well-executed possessions on his part. His strong-side cutting is another plus-value in his offensive profile.

Punishing ball-watchers is what Johnson thrived off in the NBL. The third play is another example of Johnson creating his own offense via cuts. An area of development here is positioning, there’s not much possible in terms of lob passes if he’s underneath the basket. But that’s not an issue in this stage of his career, as this is an easy thing for him to improve on an NBA floor.

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Defense

On an NBA floor, Johnson’s good positional size, burst and lateral quickness will serve him well in his pick-and-roll defense. At 19 years old, Johnson has remarkable screen navigation, that’s what immediately stood out. His awareness on that end is what will translate well on an NBA floor. With his lack of physical strength, Johnson’s feel for the game on that end more than makes up for it.

In the first play below, we see Johnson slide his feet well while using his arms to limit angles, whereafter he slides well off the screener, maintains his balance, and recovers the ground to the ball handler, who smartly bumps into Johnson to get the foul call. The flashes an NBA decision-maker looks for, but older players outsmarting him here is what you’ll gladly take in this stage of Johnson’s career.

The second possession is where Johnson is caught assuming the ball handler is going to use the screen. With a wide-open driving lane on the weak side, his rejecting the ball screen was the likely outcome. It’s no issue at all, as Johnson will improve his decision-maker and recognition of offensive schemes in the future. Despite the blow-by, Johnson sees the help defense arriving and does well to not commit contact and pick up an unnecessary foul here.

With some booty-ball played in the third possession, Johnson again navigates through the screen very well, whereafter he shows more toughness by aggressively attacking the ball handler who got out of balance, stripping him off the ball, whereafter he passes the ball ahead in transition and finishes the play off with a dunk. That’s professional execution from the youngest player on the court. With such maturity, an NBA decision-maker has no issue in trusting him as the ball handler early off the gate, as his pick-and-roll defense overall gives enough feasibility for a team that its defensive rating will stay intact with him on the floor.

An area of development here is his physical strength. The fourth play shows that he’s pinned to the screen too easily here, leaving the pull-up shooter with a wide-open shot. Not something to hold against him, but an NBA team will instruct its center to screen hard against Johnson and focus on locking him in the screen instead by placing screens more inside the play to force Johnson to initiate contact.

We see Johnson play with the same energy and toughness when he’s defending against closeout attackers. With great defensive footwork, Johnson mastered in keeping his upper-body balance after putting his pivot foot on closeouts.

This helps his overall defense because of his quickness and burst, leading to him still impacting an NBA defense even when he’s not the pick-and-roll defender in defensive schemes, thus making it likely that he can also serve as a two while having the positional size for it.

In the first play, Johnson overcommits his help defense, having to cover up too much ground, where the ball handler bailed him out by not driving baseline. Hereafter, he corrected his play well, while sliding his feet naturally after pivoting well on the closeout.

The second possession shows that Johnson ultimately had two feet inside the paint before the kick-out pass. While he was quick to close out, Johnson caught an important detail in forcing the ball handler strong side, making it more likely it would end in his ability to stay in front of him deciding the play ending up in a pull-up midrange jumper or lay-up at the rim. Despite his slender build. Johnson shows toughness in absorbing the hit and forcing the ball handler to take a tough midrange jumper, which was heavily contested by Johnson.

We see a similar play in the third possession, where Johnson shows his fluid hips while the ball handler changes sides on the dribble. Despite losing him for a part of the play, Johnson heavily contests the shot at the rim. The area to work on for him is following his good defense by immediately getting in defensive box-out mode to collect the potential rebound. More often than not, Johnson is devaluing his excellent play by not following up on what will happen after the miss.

In Johnson’s defense against spot-up shooters, his footwork is again showing a lot of maturity. With his burst and quickness, his attention to detail is remarkable at such a young age. In the first play below, Johnson recognizes the drive to the strong side, leading to him aggressively pivoting his foot to impact the ball handler's drive to the strong side. He positions his body in a way that favors his burst to immediately close out hard back to the perimeter.

Another important detail is that he uses his pivot foot in the same way, where it is a tool he uses to get elevation in his shot contests. The same applies to the second play below. In the third play, Johnson’s decision-making is put to the test with the jab step, where he looks confident in his capabilities in keeping his assignment in front of him, thus making him less vulnerable to biting on fakes or getting out of balance via jabs.

The last play shows an important area of development: positioning as the help-side defender. With both feet in the paint after having three steps there, he’s bailing the offense out by offering them such an easy pass to the corner. Despite the miss, an NBA decision-maker would have to worry about its defensive rating with the amount of open threes this type of lack of positioning can eventually lead to.

As an off-ball defender, Johnson has to work on two major areas of development: positioning and decision-making. He’s vulnerable to getting backdoor cuts against him due to him being impacted by movement when he’s defending away from the ball.

In the first play, movement from his assignment lured him to relocate to the elbow, having both feet outside of the interior, thus collapsing the defense and leaving a wide open interior of space behind him to exploit for the passer who was already looking to get bailed out with a pass.

The classic ball-watching among prospects also applies to Johnson in the second play. He was too focused on what the ball handler would do out of the pick-and-roll forgetting that he had to cover the elbow area on the strong side, and movement around him led to more space turning his stance into the weak side.

In the third play, we see a lack of decision-making in the rotation, where Johnson was ready to take over the assignment in the middle which had no part in the play, as the dribble penetration from the weak side led to either the finish at the rim or a bailout pass. The ball handler found it in the corner after Johnson was left confused to commit to the ball handler and rotate himself or to rotate away from the ball and close a potential passing line, forgetting his assignment in the process.

However, when he does have to rotate, the fluidity of his hips and the mobility out of it will be an important physical tool an NBA decision-maker will look to add. In the fourth play, despite the made shot, the way he turns and uses his length to contest was an important flash and a sign for better things to come once he’s established himself as an NBA rotational piece.

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NBA Draft Projection

Johnson made me regret not having watched him in-depth earlier in the draft cycle. In terms of his long-term potential. he has the talent to be a starter somewhere in his career. His physical tools and footwork combined make it impressive how mature his game is for a 19-year-old.

He has areas to clean up, mostly being related to his lack of experience. With his defensive positioning as an off-ball defender, especially on the help side, Johnson tends to relocate as the ball handler is moving on the court, mostly forgetting the shooter in the corner.

Another area of development is Johnson's not following up the current play with the correct thing to do. He’s late to get in defensive box-out mode or watch the outcome of the play, both on defense or when he’s the shooter on offense. However, these are no concerns worthy of a red flag by any means. More reps and development will improve some of the habits a young star in high school, who was the main man in most games, has to go through.

The numbers are neglectful and show no value. The small details on film however do. Johnson has great footwork, especially on defense. He has created habits of using that in combination with his physical advantages, such as his burst and quickness when he’s closing out or sliding his feet when he has the ball handler in front of him.

His jump shot needs work. That’s the swingskill that will determine if he can stay on a floor for a long time, or has to settle for a role where his defense and playmaking are the important additions. Despite having my Big Board in place, it’s not realistic to leave Johnson out. Based on his talent, his level of play, and potential, I project him to be a possible late first-round pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.

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