2024 NBA Draft Lottery Night Mock
With the Atlanta Hawks securing the right to pick first on June 26, 2024, here's a quick mock draft based on what I think will happen—and not what I would do. Which team gets who? Find out below.
In a wide-open class, skepticism was regarding the value of the number one overall pick. People who know me and follow my work for a longer period know that I don’t see this class as a weak class, as it’s described by many.
This class has enough long-term potential to bet on, but NBA decision-makers and scouts have to work harder to find out who these prospects are. That’s the difference. Therefore, this class is unique.
Which team is the clear winner of the lottery?
The Hawks are the biggest winner in luck as their 3% odds landed them the right to select first. The Raptors not keeping their pick makes San Antonio the biggest winner in terms of value, as they can address their need for a leading guard and forward with picks four and eight. Houston keeping their pick and giving up two second-round picks in 2025 instead makes them the biggest winner in terms of draft capital for future trades.
A quick lottery night mock draft
Based on how the lottery is shaped up, I project the following fourteen picks to be as follows:
1. Atlanta Hawks — Alexandre Sarr
With excellent young pieces in Onyeka Okongwu, Jalen Johnson, and Kobe Bufkin, the Hawks can shape their starting five by pairing the French big man with Trae Young.
Sarr’s fluidity and mobility make him a potential defense-anchoring big who can be used to mitigate the negative effects Young has on the Hawks’ defense. Pairing him with one of the better playmakers in the NBA could turn Sarr into a decent to good offensive piece as a roll man, despite below-average touch at the rim.
Being able to handle the ball gives the Hawks enough versatility on the offense end to use Sarr in four or five-out type of schemes. The Hawks are getting a long-term solution for their center needs. It will be a crucial summer for them in terms of how they will handle potential trade rumors involving Clint Capela and Dejounte Murray.
2. Washington Wizards — Rob Dillingham
With Bilal Coulibaly, the Wizards have their hyper-athletic two-guard which can be used to complement a high-end scorer running point. Dillingham is the most creative scorer in this draft class. His ability to handle the ball and make live-dribble reads as a passer gives Washington much-needed offensive creativity in the next phase of their rebuild.
With Jordan Poole also on the roster, it’s likely that Dillingham will start his career in a similar role as he had at Kentucky. However, with their new front office valuing defensive versatility and having multiple ball handlers, they can afford to fix their offensive needs with the second overall pick by adding the most creative scorer in this class.
3. Houston Rockets — Matas Buzelis
The Rockets pulled off another huge lottery-luck haul on Oklahoma City by keeping their pick, just as they did at the 2021 NBA Draft. Their core is built around Şengün, Smith Jr., Green, and Thompson. With Eason and Whitmore, the Rockets have six legitimate long-term pieces on their hands. Adding depth to their core is the way to go here.
Despite Buzelis’ ball-dominant type of play at the high school level, I believe that he’s best in his NBA role without the ball in his hands. Buzelis needed some time to adjust from the high school three-point line (19 feet 9 inches) to the NBA line which is at 23 feet 9 inches. His biggest NBA value is as a weakside defender using his length, size, and toughness. On Coach Udoka’s team built on size, athleticism, and multiple ball handlers in each position, Buzelis’ biggest lack is being covered by Şengün’s brilliance: passing. He’ll join a team that has a role for him to grow into in the upcoming years.
Selecting a high-end rotational piece at number three feels like an overpay, but with a core in place, where most usage and responsibilities are already known for a large part, the Rockets do themselves a favor by stacking more talent for their promising future.
4. San Antonio Spurs — Nikola Topić
Coach Popovich gets his long-term solution at point guard. Looking at how their roster is shaped up, we see a wing-heavy line-up that needs offensive creativity and leadership. That’s what Topić brings to the table. He’s the best distributor in this class. As an 18-year-old, Topić stood out by making the game easy for himself, while playing against much more experienced professional basketball players.
Looking at the Spurs’ history, their value on fundamentals, coachability, and team-first type of play makes Topić the perfect candidate to run their offense. Due to his size at 6’6”, he’s in a position to be a more offensively versatile weapon for them if his three-point shot comes along; which is the biggest area of development in his profile. Regardless, the Spurs are the clear winner in this draft by filling in the toughest position on the depth chart: leading guard.
5. Detroit Pistons — Zaccharie Risacher
The Pistons are in a tricky situation. Their ball touches and usage is mostly handed to Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey. With Ausar Thompson struggling to get the on-ball reps in games where one of both above-mentioned names played, it’s not a surprise that the Pistons will use this year’s draft to fill their shooting depth and wing rotation.
By selecting Risacher, it’s clear that the Pistons added a proven shooter who started the year as one of the better shooters in Europe, despite playing at 18 years old. He fell into a cold shooting stretch of two months just around the time of the second half of conference play in college basketball until the season ended. That has been a momentum-shifter to his disadvantage in regards to him falling on draft boards.
However, a cold stretch shouldn’t warrant how a 10-plus-year NBA career will end up to be. At 6’9”, Risacher has enough untapped potential to unleash his NBA role once he manages to be a more creative scorer on offense. Until then, settling for a role as a wing-shooter and multi-positional defender will help him land quickly in the NBA. In terms of long-term potential, the Pistons added another gem after selecting Ausar Thompson last year.
6. Charlotte Hornets — Ron Holland
The Hornets have their long-term number-one option in Brandon Miller. With LaMelo Ball struggling to stay healthy for several seasons now, likely, the Hornets will likely slowly look to pair Miller with another high-end outcome in potential. Compared to Miller, Holland will need more time to develop into a certain role.
He’ll have that time in Charlotte. Holland had to adapt to playing as a wing on a losing G League Ignite team while playing as a four in high school. Despite the earlier-mentioned adapting to the NBA three-point line just like his teammate Buzelis, Holland had to suddenly play as a full-time ball handler without having the handles or creativity to do it. However, the reason why he has been my clear-cut number one in this class is his combination of explosiveness, burst, and first step. If he can improve his feel for the game and master his physical tools to his advantage, Holland can be a lethal scorer in the NBA.
The Hornets are betting on long-term potential with this pick, rather than playing it safe and selecting a complementary piece. In the phase of their rebuild, they can afford to swing for the fences.
7. Portland Trail Blazers — Donovan Clingan
With one of the best leading guards in the last few draft classes, it’s clear that the Trail Blazers will build their team around Scoot Henderson. Having two top options in Simons and Sharpe, the Trail Blazers will have to address their need for a pivotal team player who can anchor their defense built on athleticism.
Clingan is one of the more unique big-man prospects in recent years. His size, strength, and fluidity make him a pest for opponents on a better-spaced NBA floor. He’s not a top-rim protector in terms of blocking shots. His true value is in deterring shots at the rim and making ball handlers think twice about attacking him off the dribble.
As one of the better pick-and-roll defenders in the class, Clingan will have a solid base as he was accustomed to playing drop coverage at Connecticut. A game-changer for him is to diversify his pick-and-roll defense by adding various other schemes to his arsenal.
For more details, see last month’s in-depth piece on him below.
8. San Antonio Spurs — Reed Sheppard
The Spurs hold another top-ten pick and address their guard depth by selecting Sheppard. As one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the league, the Spurs will address that need by selecting the sharpshooter out of Kentucky.
The biggest knock on Sheppard was him being undersized. However, the Spurs mitigate that with Topić as the leading guard and Vassell and Johnson on their wings. Sheppard stood out as a stock machine in college, but that wasn’t a result of him being a top defender, at least for NBA standards.
San Antonio values high-feel players who consistently make good decisions with and without the ball in their hands. Sheppard was a very good team defender in his activity, rotations, and coaching on the court. His advantage fundamentally-wise made him the lottery-level prospect which the Spurs use to add insurance to their roster long-term. Whether it’s coming off the bench or as a starter, they know Sheppard can complement Wembanyama, Vassell, and Topić in every way.
9. Memphis Grizzlies — Kel’el Ware
The Grizzlies didn’t have the best night in terms of luck. Missing out on Clingan and Sarr will toughen their plans to improve their roster, with the center being the most crucial area. After trading Adams to Houston, it was clear that Memphis had to address its center needs.
By selecting Ware, Memphis adds mobility, play-finishing, and rebounding to their starting line-up, complementing Jaren Jackson Jr. Ware’s motor is the biggest area of development in his profile. With all ball touches being handed to Morant, Bane, and their sublime duo of draftees from last year in Williams and Jackson, Memphis adds potential to their frontcourt, which they can continue to address in trades or free agency.
For more details, see last month’s in-depth piece on him below.
10. Utah Jazz — Stephon Castle
With Keyonte George, the Jazz found their long-term solution at the guard spot. At least for one of the guard positions. For the second one, adding size and versatility to complement George’s scoring prowess is the way to go for Utah.
In Castle, they get a proven connecting guard who can also play as a wing, due to his impacting the game as a freshman on a loaded team at Connecticut, crowning him as a national champion. Despite early-season injuries, Castle fought back and overcame adversity by putting on a clinic in the NCAA Tournament, addressing a part of his shooting issues.
In terms of feel for the game, positional versatility, defensive instincts, and overall long-term potential, Castle is one of the best prospects who played in college basketball this year, and the number three on my big board. Despite falling in the lottery, the Jazz get a top-five worthy pick in Castle.
11. Chicago Bulls — Dalton Knecht
The Bulls are in a tough situation in terms of their aging roster which was built on Vučević and DeRozan. With two proven guards in Dosunmu and White, the Bulls have legitimate pieces to build their future around. By adding Knecht, they add another ball handler with a scalable role from thriving as a spot-up shooter, to taking over games with his scoring.
Knecht is a good athlete who can grow as a defender. In the early stages of the season, he had to adjust from playing on a lower level to a complicated defensive system Tennessee runs. This put a mark on him during the year as a non-athletic wing who made up for his lack of defense with high-end scoring. This drew many white players to white player comparisons that are not realistic in terms of his NBA future.
The Bulls prepare for a life without Caruso, who can help them land other assets to help them reshape their team in the next few years.
12. Oklahoma City Thunder — Ja’Kobe Walter
Oklahoma City is in a tough situation due to their role players outplaying their contract, which makes their future in terms of extending contracts tougher concerning the cap. They have one of the cleanest cap sheets in the league, and despite that Oklahoma City would want to stay flexible at all times and not make any mistakes that could cost them reshaping the roster later on.
By adding Baylor freshman Walter to the mix, the Thunder add another shooter with a scalable game who can grow in their rotation. While looking at his high school film, Walter is an underrated passer, which could make him a solution to Josh Giddey in the future. With Joe and Wiggins becoming crucial role players in the Thunder’s regular season success, both continue to thrive in the playoffs. They’ll be a part of their plans, but by adding Walter, Sam Presti will make it easier for him to cash in on Giddey who is set for a payday.
13. Sacramento Kings — Cody Williams
The Kings have been one of the more dynamic offenses in the NBA under Coach Brown. Their fundamental-based motion offense with a lot of ball movement complements Williams’ game very well. Due to his size and athleticism, Williams has been presented as an NBA point guard who can run the offense. However, looking at his game, he’s more suited to play in a complementary role to a star guard in the backcourt.
Sacramento is swinging for the fences here by adding one of the best prospects in terms of physical tools, feel for the game, and long-term potential. With their team built around Fox and Sabonis, and Murray’s upcoming stardom, adding Williams gives them a solution to their rotations at the two and three spots.
For more details, see last month’s in-depth piece on him below.
14. Portland Trail Blazers — Tidjane Salaün
The Blazers already added Rupert as a long-term potential bet for their wings, while adding Camar and Murray to their three and four positional depth. However, with Grant signing that huge contract and the team moving toward a different direction, likely, the Trail Blazers will likely yet again swing for the fences with their second pick in the lottery.
In the early stages of the season, I called Salaün the best French prospect in terms of long-term potential, and a clear-cut top-ten player in this class in terms of what he can become if everything clicks. The Trail Blazers are a well-developing franchise that can afford to give him a few years, just as they gave Hendricks almost a full year to prepare for his role.
Portland won’t find an immediate roster-improver at fourteen, without sacrificing their investment in their starting five this year. Therefore, swinging for the fences and going for long-term success is the way to go for them.
For more details, see the early-season in-depth piece on him below.
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